Opening Line: Falcons -3.5
Over/Under: 49
Time: 1 PM EST Sunday December 4, 2016 on CBS
Kansas City Chiefs (8-3) vs. Atlanta Falcons (7-4)
The Chiefs are coming off a big 30-27 OT win over the Denver Broncos and they are only one game back of the Oakland Raiders in the tough AFC West. They are led by their defense, which ranks 8th in the NFL giving up an average of 19.5 ppg. Their D is key since they only rank 23rd in the league in both passing and rushing yards per game.
The Falcons have won three of their last four games and they are in first place in the NFC South. However, they are only one game up on the Buccaneers and two games up on the Saints. QB Matt Ryan is having a MVP season and he ranks 3rd in the league in passing yards and his main target of WR Julio Jones leads the league in receiving yards. Atlanta ranks 1st in the league in points per game, but only 29th in opponents’ points allowed.
In their last games Chiefs beat the Denver Broncos 30-27 in OT and the Falcons beat the Arizona Cardinals 38-19.
On the season the Chiefs are 5-6 ATS with an O/U record of 3-8 and the Falcons are 7-4 ATS with an O/U record of 9-2.
The Chiefs beat the Broncos in this game even though they were outgained 464 yards to 273 yards and they only converted on five of their 14 3rd downs. Alex Smith had another solid yet unspectacular game under center passing for 220 yards with one TD and no picks. He was sacked six times and did not get much help from the rushing offense, which only had 83 rushing yards. Spencer Ware is now the main back in KC and in the win over the Broncos he rushed for 64 yards only averaging 3.8 yards per carry.
The Falcons’ defense has been decent against the run this season ranking 9th, but they only rank 30th in pass defense.
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Ryan has been putting up great numbers all season and in the win over the Cardinals in Atlanta’s last game he passed for 269 yards with two TD and one INT. He has a good WR corps and in the game Julio Jones only had 35 receiving yards. RB Devonta Freeman rushed for 60 yards in the game only averaging 3.8 yards per carry.
Kansas City ranks 19th in the league in pass defense and 29th in run defense. The Chiefs’ pass rush will be key in this game and Dee Gordon, who ranks tied for 2nd in the league in sacks, is questionable for this game with an injury. Still, they had six sacks in the win over Denver with Justin Houston getting three of them.
Kansas City at Atlanta Betting Trends
- The Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games, 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win, and in their last 7 games they have an Under record of 6-1.
- The Falcons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games, and in their last 5 home games the total has gone Over every time.
- In the last 4 games between these teams the total has gone Over every time.
Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons Prediction
Eight of the Chiefs’ eleven games this season have gone UNDER the total this season including three of the last four. However, their defense has started to show cracks allowing over 440 yards to their opponents in three of the last four. This week they’ll face the Falcons who lead the league in scoring averaging an impressive 32.6 points per game. The Falcons need all the points they can get with their porous defensive unit that has allowed a 29th most points per game this season allowing their opposition an average of 27.5 points per game. The Chiefs don’t gain a lot of yards ranking 27th in the league, but they do make the best of them ranking 16th in scoring offense. The line may scare some experienced players having to score greater than seven TDs to cross over the line, but that where I feel the value is.
Take the OVER 49
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