Your 2015 NBA free agent primer
The NBA has just one offseason left before the salary cap jumps by tens of millions of dollars because of an upcoming television deal and the subsequent increased revenue that will result. It also has just two offseasons before the next unending NBA owners lockout probably hits, which is why this free-agent period (which starts at 12:01 a.m. ET on Wednesday) will mean so much as teams and players slyly work up some machinations with the next two summers in line.
This is why we’ve decided to break down some of the futures of the more notable 2015 free agents, divided into four completely relatable categories.
Superstars
Kevin Love, unrestricted free agent
There is a legitimate chance that Kevin Love, who came from an NBA family and would seem to be well in place to choose happiness and less money over the max with the Cleveland Cavaliers, could leave the Cavs. All the marks are in place, however, for Love to have his cake and eat it too: Cleveland played ridiculously well with him in the team’s hoped-for starting lineup this season, he can make more money in Cleveland than anywhere else and he has the legitimate built-in excuse that his postseason shoulder injury robbed him of his best chance at a title. For once, he wasn’t unfairly made the fall guy with the nice box score stats.
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In signing a two-year deal with a player option for 2016-17 with Cleveland, Love leaves himself the chance to opt out in the summer of 2016 should financial or basketball reasons (or both) lead him to decide that Cleveland isn’t the best option for him moving forward. Even with the gut-bust of that season-ending injury and some bumps along the road in 2014-15, Love really is in the best situation of his career as he finally stares down a destiny of his own choosing.
Where he should sign: Cleveland.
Where he’ll probably sign: Cleveland.
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LeBron James, unrestricted free agent
If it were any other player – even a player of LeBron James’ remarkable talents – there would be a chance (however slight) that James could look elsewhere this summer. Because LeBron made such an “aw, shucks” story of it last summer in returning to Cleveland, however, there’s no chance in hell that he’s leaving Northern Ohio. Even forgetting narrative and silly stories about legacies, James also knows how these sorts of things work – he understands that the Cavaliers aren’t exactly in a place where they can make massive roster overhauls in the wake of the team’s Finals loss, so the blips about him minding the Cavaliers’ offseason before deciding when and where to sign is a bit overstated. James is no dummy, and he knows the Cavaliers are stuck attempting to bring the whole gang back.
Which is fantastic news for Cavs fans, because James and his team played brilliant basketball down the stretch of the season with everyone healthy. As with Love, LeBron will likely take a two-year deal with a player option for next summer, wherein he can opt out yet again and sign a massive max contract once the league’s salary cap vaults past the $90 million mark. It’ll be then and only then that he’ll be paid anywhere near what he’s genuinely worth as both a player and draw.
Where he should sign: Cleveland.
Where he’ll probably sign: Cleveland.
***
Dwyane Wade, unrestricted free agent
Wade made it official on Monday, opting out of the final year of his contract in order to genuinely take a look at the open market. It will be an uneasy summer for all involved, as Wade played absolutely killer basketball when healthy in his first post-LeBron season, but he’s also missed nearly an entire season’s worth of games over the past four years. He gave up money in order to help lure James and Chris Bosh to the Heat in 2010, and even more money during the 2014 offseason as the Heat attempted to retool. It’s understandable that he feels like he’s owed a max payday after five years’ worth of giving back to the only team he’s ever known.
The Heat, flush with ideas about adding Kevin Durant in 2016 or any number of helpers this season, have ideas above the team’s 37-win 2014-15 station. The last thing they want is Wade to act as a millstone moving forward, with a game that might not age well and with the squad’s top-heavy approach leaving it prone to injury (this is not a 37-win team on paper, but it falls to that realm after one or two stars go down). It would take a massive falling out for the Heat and Wade to fail to come to an agreement on terms, but that doesn’t mean July is going to be easy. Wade and team president Pat Riley are professionals, but upcoming discussions will be awkward at best.
Where he should sign: Miami.
Where he’ll probably sign: Miami.
***
LaMarcus Aldridge, unrestricted free agent
Out of seemingly nowhere, the once-assumed Trail Blazer for Life is all but assured of leaving PDX after nearly a decade with the team. It’s a sad parting, to be sure, but one that also might be the best for all involved. LaMarcus turns 30 in July, and though he should be able to work his touch-happy game deep into his 30s, he is also going to likely turn in declining seasons over the course of the contract he’ll sign this month. It won’t be a dramatic fall-off, he’ll probably be an All-Star for the length of this new deal, but this is worth noting.
Potential suitors are more than a little aware of this, and they could not care less. LMA would be a killer addition to a heady team like the San Antonio Spurs, and even a pairing with an aging Dirk Nowitzki in Dallas would still result in some beautiful basketball. A scenario that would send him to Toronto is incredibly intriguing. The Knicks and Lakers will make their play, but if Aldridge were in it solely for the money he’d stick it out with a fat contract in Portland (who could pay him $28 million more over the course of a max deal, or even higher amounts if he took a one-year deal and opted out in 2016). The guy wants to win.
(Yeah. Watch him sign with the Lakers.)
Where he should sign: San Antonio.
Where he’ll probably sign: Los Angeles Lakers.
***
Marc Gasol, unrestricted free agent
Marc Gasol went to high school in Memphis, the Grizzlies were the first team to take a “chance” on both him and his brother Pau, and the Grizzlies also happen to be a damn good basketball team. Even better, the Grizz can offer more money than any other potential free-agent suitor, with the knowledge that the team’s front office will continue to build around Gasol and Mike Conley after Zach Randolph’s career winds down a bit.
The Grizzlies are stuck in a somewhat-intractable situation as they attempt to find someone, anyone, to score from either swingman position, reportedly and understandably looking to take chances on players once (rightfully) called amongst the NBA’s most overrated by some of the team’s front-office personnel a decade ago. Gasol is aware of the road blocks the West tends to put in place come playoff time, but even with San Antonio sniffing around when Memphis is home there truly is no place like home.
Where he should sign: Memphis.
Where he’ll probably sign: Memphis.
***
Tim Duncan, unrestricted free agent
Duncan’s free-agent discussions with San Antonio won’t nearly be as awkward as the ones pitched between Dwyane Wade and Miami. Duncan has already taken several pay cuts to help his Spurs through the years, but he also understands that San Antonio isn’t exactly looking to break the bank for a player who probably won’t even average 29 minutes a game next season. Duncan’s recent gallows humor when discussing the business adviser who allegedly might have cost him $20 million once again proves that cash isn’t really key with this guy right now.
What is key is winning, the only thing that drove Duncan to briefly consider leaving what appeared to be an aging Spurs squad a decade and a half ago (!) in order to visit with Orlando as a free agent. This is a crucial summer for San Antonio, and hurt feelings could abound as the team tries to juggle contracts of players both incoming and possibly outgoing, but as always the Duncan discussion should be a no-fuss, no-muss affair.
Where he should sign: San Antonio.
Where he’ll probably sign: San Antonio.
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Ex-Rookies
Greg Monroe, unrestricted free agent
Monroe told the Pistons that he had their qualifying offer “right here” while pointing to unmentionable places, which is why he’ll be one of the rare high-end players to come off of a rookie contract and into unrestricted free agency. To Monroe’s credit, he played hard and did not mope while working for the qualifying offer of $5.4 million last year (laugh at the supposed injustice before remembering that Monroe could have twice as much in an open market with no restrictions), but his low-post game isn’t a great fit alongside Andre Drummond or in coach Stan Van Gundy’s offense, and the team seems ready to part with him for no compensation.
That’s a rarity, in the modern NBA, but one all sides seem to be fine with. New York has long been considered Monroe’s top suitor, and his blend of low-post scoring and slick passing would seem to fit well within the team’s triple-post offense. Monroe is probably looking for the same two-year deal with a player option for 2016-17 that other stars are coveting, and that might be the best move for both sides: New York might tire of Monroe pushing Carmelo Anthony out of the power forward position that he’s thrived at.
Where he should sign: New York.
Where he’ll probably sign: New York.
***
Jimmy Butler, restricted free agent
Butler famously bet on himself last fall in declining Chicago’s four-year, $44 million offer. The Bulls made the right offer for the time: Butler was coming off a season that saw him shoot less than 40 percent while showcasing little of the improved handle and post-up game that marked his Most Improved Player season of 2014-15. The Bulls quibbled over a few million for Butler, which was very Bulls-like of them, but the team remains in the catbird seat as it will be allowed to either match any offer other teams give Butler, or sign him to the “maximum qualifying offer” which would prevent teams from handing him an offer sheet for the next three years.
The swingman will be a Bull next year; the only question is for how long. He could bet on himself yet again and choose to play for the qualifying offer – just over $3.1 million – and become an unrestricted free agent in 2016. That’s a lot of money to leave on the table, however. Reaching out to other squads to sign a four-year deal that Chicago would quickly match also wouldn’t be in Butler’s best financial interests, though this is obviously what Chicago would prefer. In the end, the two sides will probably agree to a two- or three-year deal that leaves Butler with the chance to opt out and take in even more money when the NBA’s new TV deal hits, and when several older Bulls (Pau Gasol, Joakim Noah, Taj Gibson) see their deals expire.
Where he should sign: Chicago.
Where he’ll probably sign: Chicago.
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Kawhi Leonard, restricted free agent
If this were any other player, or any other team, you’d be a bit worried. San Antonio and Leonard decided not to sign a contract extension last summer, preferring his $7.2 million cap hold to the eight-figure deal he’d have on the books as the team attempted to retool yet again with cap space.
Leonard will eventually get the max, well-earned even after an injury-plagued 2014-15 campaign, but what remains to be seen is whether the Spurs will force Leonard to receive an offer sheet with another team (which San Antonio would match), or if they’ll just hand him the full boat offer as soon as the team figures out what it’s doing with Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and (they hope) LaMarcus Aldridge or Marc Gasol.
Where he should sign: San Antonio.
Where he’ll probably sign: San Antonio.
***
Draymond Green, restricted free agent
As the 2014-15 championship season moved along, Draymond Green moved from “worth a big deal” to “probably a max guy, but only in Golden State’s system” to “forget it, give the guy everything we have.” His modern-as-tomorrow play helped push the Warriors over the edge, and he doesn’t figure to be the sort of guy who would rest on his laurels after receiving a max contract and hearty handshake from Warriors brass.
The W’s are set to pay the luxury tax even if the team somehow finds a taker (with nothing in return) for David Lee, which would limit their ability to sign the sorts of role players who tend to dot championship rosters. The kicker here is that Green can be whatever role player you need on any given night – a defensive hound either on the interior or perimeter, a shot-creator, a floor-spacer, a pick-and-roll guy – or any given playoff series. The Warriors hope others will come calling with offer sheets that they would match in order to limit salary, but other suitors know this would be a pointless exercise, and GSW will eventually (and happily) have to pony up.
Where he should sign: Golden State.
Where he’ll probably sign: Golden State.
***
Tristan Thompson, restricted free agent
It’s always good to have LeBron James on your side, but it’s also just as good to be damn near the best at what you do: Tristan Thompson gets offensive rebounds. In Kevin Love’s playoff absence Thompson destroyed the Chicago and Atlanta frontcourts in ways that can’t merely be chalked up to injury and/or age. Some might balk at the idea of paying your bench big forward eight figures a year, but this is the price of playing for a championship.
Thompson turned down a four-year, $52 million extension before the season began, betting on himself even with a newly acquired All-Star in Kevin Love ready to take his starter’s minutes. The knowledge that James and his representative company would influence a bigger contract come 2015 was handy to have in place, but Thompson has earned whatever he’ll get. Even off the bench.
Where he should sign: Cleveland.
Where he’ll probably sign: Cleveland.
***
Khris Middleton, restricted free agent
The Milwaukee Bucks were miserable to watch last season at times on the offensive end, even with Middleton developing into a go-to scorer of sorts in his second straight season of shooting over 40 percent from 3-point range. The shooting guard slot has enjoyed a renaissance over the last couple of seasons, and if Middleton makes a Jimmy Butler-sized leap as a ball-handler and post-up guy, a max-sized contract extension shouldn’t feel like a massive jump. Even if you’ve only seen the guy play four times.
Where he should sign: San Antonio.
Where he’ll probably sign: Milwaukee.
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Helpers
Bismack Biyombo, unrestricted free agent
The Hornets added quite a bit of frontcourt depth even in the days before free agency officially began, which makes you wonder if they know something we don’t know prior to declining to offer Biyombo a below-average qualifying offer of just $5.1 million. Biyombo’s offensive game will always drive a coach to the corner bar, but he has learned to set screens without mauling point guards and acts as a solid defensive force in the paint when his hips are squared and his arms are raised. Even in this quicker, modern game it would seem like he would be a prime candidate to be coveted.
Again, though, there might be something we don’t know.
Where he should sign: Orlando.
Where he’ll probably sign: Los Angeles Lakers.
***
Brandon Knight, restricted free agent
Knight was rather awful as a Phoenix Sun following the team’s surprising acquisition of him in February, and even if he were an unrestricted free agent this summer the Suns would probably want to move heaven and earth to re-sign him – he cost the team what could be a top-four pick in next year’s draft in the deal.
With Phoenix having maybe soured on Eric Bledsoe, the franchise will look to lock Knight up with an eight-figure yearly contract that it hopes will look like a (mini) Stephen Curry-sized bargain once the NBA’s new TV deal hits in 2016.
Where he should sign: Phoenix.
Where he’ll probably sign: Phoenix.
***
Goran Dragic, unrestricted free agent
It’s just fine to worry about Dragic moving forward. He turned 29 just after Miami’s season ended, his game relies on quite a bit of athletic flash and dash in order to keep defenses on their heels, and he declined in 2014-15 after a superb season the year before. Because his goofball fundamentals are so on point, however, his game figures to carry over for a few more years at least, and a massive deal signed this summer (Dragic opted-out of a scheduled $7.5 million payday for 2015-16) probably won’t look all that bad once, say it with me now, the TV money hits in 2016.
Where he should sign: Miami.
Where he’ll probably sign: Miami.
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Danny Green, unrestricted free agent
If you shoot, you play in the modern NBA … and Danny Green can shoot. He can also guard two positions, he’s never averaged over 28.5 minutes per game by design, and the Spurs might be looking elsewhere during the team’s last big attempt to lure free agents to play alongside Tim Duncan. As such, even though Green probably absolutely adores his existence as the starting shooting guard on the San Antonio Spurs, a good team with cap space could break the bank for Green in ways that wouldn’t be fiscally inappropriate.
Where he should sign: San Antonio.
Where he’ll probably sign: Milwaukee.
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Paul Millsap, unrestricted free agent
Millsap will turn 31 midway through the 2015-16 season, but even with his rather smallish stature as a stretch four his game will probably age well just as long as he stays healthy and those corner 3-pointers keep going down. Millsap still seems perfectly suited for Atlanta’s space-heavy offense, but he’ll also be several teams’ fallback plan when their attempts at signing a superstar go awry. One supposes Millsap is not a superstar, but he’s not far off, and he’ll make one NBA team very happy over the next couple of years. Providing for pitch-perfect health, of course.
Where he should sign: Detroit.
Where he’ll probably sign: Atlanta.
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Robin Lopez, restricted free agent
A loping 7-footer who still manages to survive despite the game’s shifting tides, Lopez will be the subject of a serious bidding war and for good reason. Should Portland decide to completely start over in a post-Aldridge world, the team could possibly squeeze a solid sign-and-trade out of Lopez’s move to greener pastures with a non-tax team. The NBA will always bid high for centers who can walk and chew gum at the same time, and while it hasn’t been confirmed that Robin Lopez is capable of as much, he’s going to get paid this summer.
Where he should sign: Milwaukee.
Where he’ll probably sign: Boston.
***
Tyson Chandler, unrestricted free agent
Likely heading into the last big contract of his career, Chandler will be among those who teams will throw gobs of money at after striking out with the All-Stars, which is just fine. Any sort of sizable deal this summer will look fine by 2016-17, and Chandler has done a fantastic job of circling the wagons after what was an injury-plagued run during his 20s. Squads will look to pounce while Dallas waits out LaMarcus Aldridge’s free agent decision, which could result in the Mavericks actually renouncing Chandler’s rights in order to eliminate his cap hold.
Where he should sign: Atlanta.
Where he’ll probably sign: Dallas.
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David West, unrestricted free agent
West surprised the basketball world (read: us dorks) by opting out of the $12.6 million he was owed in 2015-16 in order to test the free-agent market, prior to disappearing into his hovel when the inquisitive media wanted to ask why, exactly, he was making such a move. Was he doing it in order to secure one last big contract, the one that we thought he signed in 2013 (at three years, $36.6 million)? Or was this more about the Pacers and that team’s future rather than financial concerns?
Only West, one of the more respected and underrated players of his generation, knows.
Where he should sign: Toronto.
Where he’ll probably sign: Indiana.
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Paul Pierce, unrestricted free agent
Pierce opted out of the final year, at $5.5 million, of his contract with the Wizards late in June. Once the Wizards started using him properly, mostly as a stretch power forward, Pierce acted as a perfect fit for the team up to and including the point where he nearly hit yet another playoff game-winner for the squad. One can find perfection in several places, however, and with Pierce’s former beloved coach running a team that not only happens to play in his hometown of Los Angeles, but also without a starting-level small forward on the roster, the inevitable pairing of Pierce and the Clippers seems too strong to ignore.
Where he should sign: Los Angeles Clippers.
Where he’ll probably sign: Los Angeles Clippers.
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Weirdos
Brook Lopez, restricted free agent
We’re seven seasons into Brook’s career, and it’s still hard to pin down whether or not he’s actually helping or hurting his Nets teams with his mix of efficient offensive output, so-so rebound totals and dodgy defense. By the standards of the 1980s, he looks like a keeper, but with the game evolving to a point that 7-footers seem to be denied access to what’s shakin’ on the hill, Lopez probably won’t get the same sort of free-agent treatment that guys that average 17 and 7 (in just 32 minutes a night!) usually get. And that’s not even getting into the fact that he might be one stress fracture away, sadly, from retirement.
Where he should sign: Brooklyn.
Where he’ll probably sign: Brooklyn.
***
DeAndre Jordan, unrestricted free agent
The Clippers have made this clear from the word “go,” they’re going to offer Jordan a maximum contract to re-sign with the team. Any misgivings we might have over Jordan’s defensive capabilities in the non-box score stat section, or his awful free-throw shooting, don’t really matter – someone is going to pay him as much as they legally can to start at center next season. The delineation point likely starts at Jordan’s role in a potential new team’s offense – is he going to be wooed into taking (far) less money just because a new suitor makes promises about jump hooks in July?
Where he should sign: Los Angeles Clippers.
Where he’ll probably sign: Los Angeles Clippers.
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Monta Ellis, unrestricted free agent
Even if you’re not much of a Monta Ellis fan, you still had to completely understand why he walked away from his $8.2 million player option and (more than likely) his relationship with the Dallas Mavericks. Monta is your classic consolation player; it’s the only reason he became a Maverick in the first place (after Dwight Howard turned down the team’s overtures), and there’s no doubt that some team will talk itself into the “bargain” of securing Ellis with a pre-TV deal contract this offseason.
Where he should sign: Indiana.
Where he’ll probably sign: Indiana.
***
Rajon Rondo, unrestricted free agent
Nobody knows quite what to make of Rajon Rondo’s game at this point. Even prior to his 2013 ACL tear, the point man boasted a polarizing game that few could easily agree on how to characterize – other than the fact that, for a while, it worked for the Boston Celtics. Approaching 29 prior to the trade deadline, the C’s decided that he didn’t fit in their rebuilding plans in 2014-15, and Rondo eventually didn’t fit in absolutely any of Dallas’ plans following a trade to Texas: Rajon was dismissed from the team during the playoffs.
The double-whammy of his surgically reconstructed knee and his unique skill set make him free agency’s biggest wild card. It is genuinely tough to think of any appropriate team that would be best suited to toss Rajon Rondo the ball for 35 minutes a night in 2015-16.
Where he should sign: Los Angeles Lakers.
Where he’ll probably sign: Los Angeles Lakers.
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Omer Asik, unrestricted free agent
Asik plays defense, guards the rim, and rebounds – and yet the New Orleans Pelicans weren’t all that hot defensively last season with him doing exactly what he had signed on to do with the express, written consent of Major League Baseball. As such, teams have to worry about his role on a potentially contending team moving forward, as Asik offers little in the way of the passing and screen-setting that Andrew Bogut gave the Warriors last year – and Bogut was benched for all but three minutes of the champions’ last three games of the year.
Where he should sign: Atlanta.
Where he’ll probably sign: New York.
***
Jeremy Lin, unrestricted free agent
He may have had to deal with unending Kobe Bryant staredowns, but Lin definitely got what he needed in 2014-15. He was allowed to dominate the ball on a terrible Lakers team with Bryant mostly out and attempt to rehabilitate his career, and it didn’t quite work out. Lin needs a special setup to thrive, an up-tempo team that will give him the ball and get out of the way, but he might have to warm to the idea that he’s best suited to be a bit player off the bench.
Where he should sign: Chicago.
Where he’ll probably sign: Detroit.
***
Josh Smith, restricted free agent
Even after a sound rehabilitation half season with the Houston Rockets, Josh Smith remains more Josh Smith-y than ever. After being unable to hack it with the president of the Stretch Four Fan Club, Stan Van Gundy, he did find some measure of success by dialing it back somewhat in Houston. At this point, alongside his good buddy in Dwight Howard and a patient players’ coach in Kevin McHale, Smith should probably stick to the team he found refuge with last season.
Where he should sign: Houston.
Where he’ll probably sign: Houston.
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Kelly Dwyer is an editor for Ball Don’t Lie on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @KDonhoops
