Player Analysis: Experts Mock Draft, Part 3
We’ve covered the 2015-16 Play Togga Premier League Fantasy Experts Draft in two ways already. First, we looked Round-by-Round at the draft to give you a sense of where players are likely to go. Second, we looked Team-by-Team to give you an idea of how to construct a roster and where the pitfalls might be in doing so. Today, for the final part in our series, we’re going to a scary place. We’re going inside my head with the notes I took during each round.
Given the Team-by-Team grades I gave yesterday, maybe we should have gotten Todd Shenk to write this column but we didn’t know ahead of time that we’d like his team the most so you’re stuck with me and my logic. Overall, I think I ended up with a team that possesses high upside with minimal risk that one or more of the players that I picked from relegated teams (Phillips, Fer, N’Doye) and the one I was counting on getting a transfer (Remy) will end up as wasted picks.
Just a reminder of the rules:
- We are drafting 17 player teams.
- There is no formation requirement so benches can be whatever we want them to be and starting line-ups can be 3-5-2, 3-4-3, 4-5-1, 4-4-2, 4-3-3, 5-4-1, 5-3-2, and 5-2-3 (or anything else that Louis Van Gaal can think up other than Spain’s vaunted 4-6-0).
- Scoring is based on the PlayTogga.com scoring system from last season, there are going to be some updates to this scoring system for the 2015-16 season but those are not in effect for the purposes of this draft. If you want to see player points from last season you can do that here.
- The draft is a “snake style” draft meaning that the player who picks first in the first round picks last in the second round, the player who picks second in the first round picks second to last in the second round, etc.
Round 1
My Pick: Leighton Baines
I had the #7 overall pick with Sanchez, Hazard, Aguero, Silva, Fabregas, and Costa off the board. I went with Leighton Baines for a few reasons, he is one of two stand-out defenders from last season in this scoring system (Kieran Trippier was the other and he hadn’t moved to Spurs yet although a move to the Premier League was always highly likely) and he has been cranking out superlative fantasy seasons for years. He managed to be the highest scoring defender in the Togga game last season despite playing only 31 matches. That could go either way with his age leading to more injury-enforced absences or him rebounding for more starts and an even higher point total in 2015-16. Most importantly, he isn’t likely to see his place in the team (set pieces, penalties, and regular starter) threatened which is critical in a first round pick.
When I picked I also considered Santi Cazorla, Harry Kane and Kieran Trippier. I dismissed Cazorla because I worry about how frequently he will start if Ramsey and Wilshere are both healthy and/or Arsenal add someone like Morgan Schneiderlin over the summer. I like the certainty of a Gylfi Sigurdsson or Christen Eriksen much more than the uncertainty of Cazorla in midfield. I dismissed Harry Kane thinking that either I might be able to pick him up in the second round or I could get a forward of similar value like Olivier Giroud a little later in the draft. I devalued Trippier slightly because there’s a small chance he won’t be in the Premier League next season and even if he does stay in the division it isn’t clear where he might be playing and how integral a right back will be to the attack of his new team. Trippier’s value last season was based on an excellent combination of defending stats and attacking stats. The defending stats seem likely to remain at a new club but that new club might not be nearly as likely to have their right back drive as much of the attack as punchless Burnley did last season. I feel confident that I can get Patrick van Aanholt and/or Hector Bellerin in a few rounds and get about the same production that Trippier produced last season (both defenders played fewer than 30 matches but produced similar point/match numbers to Trippier/Baines).
Round 2
My Pick: Gylfi Sigurdsson
Once Kane and Eriksen went off the board with the two picks before mine, I was pretty focused on Gylfi Sigurdsson. I thought briefly about Trippier who was the only really exceptional player left compared to the others at his position but I already had one defender in Baines from Round 1 and wanted to make sure to at least get a very good midfielder. As far as forwards go, I’m feeling pretty good that there is value to be had later in the draft after Sanchez/Aguero/Costa were all off the board before I picked in the first. Giroud, Benteke, Lukaku, Ayoze Perez, Wilfried Bony, Saido Berahino and even Jamie Vardy all seem like solid options with Dame N’Doye, Loic Remy, Daniel Sturridge, and Theo Walcott that might be available late for various reasons. Throw in Troy Deeney (Watford) and Callum Wilson (Bournemouth) and there are two more forwards bidding to be this season’s Austin and Ings.
Third Round
My Pick: Aaron Ramsey
I don’t love the Aaron Ramsey pick but in rounds three, four, five and six I’m hoping to pick up players who produced well on a point/match basis but didn’t feature often enough to be “stars” over the course of the season. The players I set my sites on before the draft in this regard were Giroud, Mane, Ramsey, van Aanholt, Walcott, Bellerin, Vardy, and Danny Rose. Giroud and Mane went off the board before my pick but the rest are still out there and I’m hoping that none are big enough names to be taken before my picks at four, five and six. The other question lingering in my mind is how long Stuart Downing can be left sitting out there without me altering my draft strategy for him. He produced big points last season (top five midfielder) but he sputtered down the stretch and will now have to fit into the system of a new manager who might or might not see him in his most productive attacking midfield spot.
Fourth Round
My Pick: Patrick van Aanholt
Downing was available when I picked fourth in this round but I didn’t have it in me to pick him given the uncertainty surrounding where he might play under new management. I would have taken him in the fifth round if he’d made it that far but he was picked immediately after my pick. Patrick van Aanholt was one of my targets and he was available with my pick and I was more than happy to snatch up a defender who should still be improving, has upside in terms of number of matches played from last season (he played 26), and STILL managed to be the seventh best defender in the Togga game last season. I’m hoping to snag three of Jamie Vardy, Callum Wilson, Troy Deeney, Matt Ritchie, and Hector Bellerin in the upcoming rounds. I’m further hoping that speculative options like Dame N’Doye and Loic Remy who could/should end up starting in the Premier League next season will be available later to sure up the forward line. My next “when should I break strategy” player is Yaya Toure who can’t possibly be as bad as he was last season, can he? I’m sort of hoping that someone else takes that decision out of my hands but if he’s available at my next pick then he’s going to be a hard one to pass up.
Fifth Round
My Pick: Callum Wilson
I was bummed that Ritchie and Yaya Toure were off the board for my pick but I knew that Yaya was likely to go and a player like Ritchie on 15 goals and 17 assists for Bournemouth last season was always going to attract some attention to managers who have done their research into the newly promoted teams. I have to admit that I’ve never seen Callum Wilson play but it’s hard to imagine a 23-year-old athletic forward coming off of 20 goals and 8 assists not being at least as good as Danny Ings was for Burnley’s dreadful attack last season. That I got Wilson three rounds after Ings was picked is just a bonus. I’m still on track for Vardy, Deeney, and/or Bellerin with my next two picks with Seamus Coleman, Riyad Mahrez, and Seb Larsson all on my radar if I can’t get any of my preferred three. We’re also getting close to the territory where I start to consider one of my soccer crushes, Ayoze Perez who can only get better after a very promising first season playing top flight football.
Sixth Round
My Pick: Hector Bellerin
I got my man in the sixth round with Hector Bellerin. He’s something of a risk because it is possible that the job reverts to Mathieu Debuchy who is older, more experienced and better paid. That said, if you watched Arsenal over the second half of the season Bellerin left no doubt as to who the better player actually is. The young Spaniard tallied 186 points in the Togga game in 17 matches which puts him on a pace to be a top five defender if he starts 30+ matches next season. His points total would likely end up between Branislav Ivanovic and Ryan Bertrand from this past season and both of those guys were selected at the top of the third round. I like the value a lot here and I’m also setting myself up to have a dominant defense with Baines (last season’s top scoring defender), van Aanholt (#7 last season despite only playing 26 matches) and Bellerin (a top five pace once he started playing). Time to start working on the midfield and forward lines and then remember to try to pick up Debuchy to handcuff Bellerin sometime in the Round 11 through 13 range. Nathan Redmond, Riyad Mahrez, Seb Larsson, James Milner, and Ander Herrera are the focal points in midfield with Troy Deeney, Jamie Vardy, Ayoze Perez, Theo Walcott, Dame N’Doye, and Loic Remy are the targets up front.
Seventh Round
My Pick: Jamie Vardy
My interest in Jamie Vardy is solely a product of the Togga scoring system. In most formats I’d be fairly uninterested but last season he put up five goals and eight assists in 26 matches and managed to be the eighth most productive forward in the game over the likes of Pelle, Lukaku, Diouf, Berahino, Giroud, and Benteke who all outscored him by a significant margin in terms of goals and even the combination of goals and assists. What Vardy did do was play both ways as he racked up interceptions and tackles won while producing attacking stats at a reasonable clip. The fact that he played only 26 matches and ended the season playing better than he started it leads me to believe that there’s some upside here. If he even jumps his production by 10% by playing at the same level but featuring in 30 matches then he’s in 2014-15 Wayne Rooney range. Not bad potential for a seventh round pick. Even better, if he drops off by 10% for some reason then he’s still a top 10 scoring forward assuming that the overall numbers look roughly the same next season as they did this one.
[NOTE: In retrospect, I would probably like my squad more if I’d gone with Deeney here because he’s likely to be the focal point of his team’s attack while Leicester City seem to be adding to their attack over the summer potentially devaluing Vardy.]
Eighth Round
My Pick: Loic Remy
The news of Falcao’s loan move to Chelsea being confirmed broke between the sixth and seventh round (we’re doing this draft via email over multiple days). Falcao’s arrival doesn’t necessarily mean that Remy will be sold but I’d guess that it increases the chances significantly that he ends up at either Crystal Palace, Newcastle or Swansea as the starting forward. If such a move had happened in advance of the draft, I’m sure he would have been picked higher so call this opportunistic drafting on my part. Looking at what I’ve picked up so far (three high potential defenders, two forwards almost guaranteed to start every week, one high upside forward if he moves, one rock solid midfielder, and one midfielder who could be great if he stays healthy/starts) it looks like the next two or three rounds should be spent on midfielders with Chris Brunt the guy I really hope is available in the ninth round followed by Seb Larsson, Willian, and Nemanja Matic. None of the last three are particularly inspiring nor do they have much in the way of upside but all three are highly likely to play regularly and churn out solid points. At a certain point you have to stock your roster with players like this who you can count on week in and week out. Come December when your opponents are struggling to find players who are going to play, you’ll be churning out the points and the wins on the backs of unspectacular players from mid-table sides (and Chelsea who behave like a mid-table side and never seem to rotate their players) while players with bigger names are being rotated.
Ninth Round
My Pick: Francis Coquelin
My pick of Francis Coquelin illustrates a few things. One, I’m a Gooner. Two, a bunch of the guys I was targeting to fill out my midfield (Brunt, Larsson, Willian and Matic) were all selected since my choice in the eighth round. Three, everyone left in midfield has some serious gaps in their profile. Ross Barkley isn’t living up to his potential. Jonjo Shelvey is a bit cooky. Remy Cabella didn’t start too often and we have no idea what Steve McClaren thinks of him. James Ward Prowse may or may not start regularly given the number of attacking midfielders at St. Mary’s. Kevin Mirallas may move somewhere else in the Premier League (Spurs?) and start more often or he may be sold abroad plus he’s injured a lot. Aaron Lennon would be great if he moved to Everton or elsewhere permanently but we don’t know if that’s going to happen. Frankly, I forgot about Adam Lallana (such has been the fall from grace of last season’s winner of the Gylfi-to-Spurs memorial award for players who should have stayed on as big fish in slightly smaller ponds rather than moving to bigger clubs to become a spare part). If Coquelin ends up being the regular starter then this will be a solid, but certainly not spectacular pick, similar to Matic in churning out steady production. The difference, of course, is that Arsenal may well be in the market for a shiny new holding midfielder. If it is someone like Kondogbia then at least I’d have the ability to try to pick him up on waivers. If it ends up being Schneiderlin then I could be screwed. That’s what you get in the ninth round.
Tenth Round
My Pick: Matt Phillips
With my last pick, Coquelin, I was essentially hoping that there wouldn’t be a transfer that would get in the way of his production. With this pick, I’m betting that my selection, Matt Phillips, will have done enough with his late season production to secure a transfer somewhere in the Premier League after being relegated with QPR. He has been linked with wing-happy Tony Pulis (Calum Mcmanaman and James McClean since his arrival at the Hawthorns) where it seems likely that he’d start. If he does, I like his upside. If not, this could be another hole in the roster that I have to fill via waivers once the season starts.
Eleventh Round
My Pick: Luke Shaw
After diving in early on defenders and picking three in the first six rounds, I haven’t picked a fourth yet. Given my strength in defense and potential weakness in midfield, I may be playing four defenders at least occasionally if not regularly. Regardless, Luke Shaw was a pretty huge deal last summer before having a disastrous first season at Manchester United. He may just not be as good as everyone thought but he’s young enough and Manchester United don’t have many top notch alternatives so I’m going to guess that he has some upside in his second season at Old Trafford. It could be a bust of a pick but he could also end up being a top ten defender based on the extent to which this scoring system seems to favor outside backs who pile up stats at both ends of the pitch over center backs. If Shaw ends up being a bust again then I can chuckle to myself about Manchester United’s transfer bumbling and pick up a solid, replacement-level center back from the waiver wire.
Twelfth Round
My Pick: Jack Wilshere
This round happened on the day that the Jack Wilshere-to-Manchester City rumors were peaking. At some level they make sense. Arsenal aren’t likely to start Wilshere and have a midfield overloaded with talent. Manchester City need to bring in home grown players and have boatloads of money to spend. It would be a solid strategy for Arsenal to sell a couple of players who may be on the verge of starting to lose value if they don’t crack the starting line-up soon, Wilshere and Walcott chief among them, and take the proceeds to buy a single exceptional player who would start. Whether that exceptional player is actually available to Arsenal this summer is another question altogether but my taking of Wilshere is speculation in that direction. There is also the ever-present possibility of an Arsenal injury crisis that sees Wilshere return to the starting line-up.
Thirteenth Round
My Pick: Leroy Fer
I was super-bummed to miss out on Ayoze Perez but I didn’t really need another forward right now with midfield being a bigger need. My late round strategy is focused on players who have upside as earlier round players but have something hanging over them that prevents them from being picked earlier. Last round it was Wilshere and the number of starts he might make. This round it is Leroy Fer who joins Matt Phillips on my team from QPR. Neither currently has a Premier League club but both are certainly good enough to hook on in the Premier League and be above average fantasy contributors in this format.
Fourteenth Round
My Pick: Boaz Myhill
I probably could have waited another round but picking the first half of “West Brom Goalkeeper” for 2015-16 seemed like too good a deal to pass up as the goalkeeper run started. Last season, with only half a season of the defensively-oriented Tony Pulis at the helm, the combination of Ben Foster and Boaz Myhill scored a combined 248 points which would have been good enough for 3rd place among goalkeepers. If you look at just the Tony Pulis part of the season (one match under half of Albion’s fixtures) the total between the two was 163 which is only a few points off of Thibault Courtois and Joe Hart’s totals for the entire season. My only worry is that Pulis brings in someone to start ahead of Myhill until Foster returns to health in early 2016 and that I don’t pick that guy up on waivers.
Fifteenth Round
My Pick: Dame N’Doye
I needed one more forward and I was really impressed by Dame N’Doye after his arrival at Hull City. I also recall an article that indicated that Steve Bruce essentially recruited him by telling him that his half season at Hull City would be a great audition for a move up in the Premier League. I suspect that he’s earned such a move and that he’ll get one at some point this summer. Even if he ends up being a 12 goal guy over the course of a full season as a starter, that puts him in 4th or 5th round territory for the small price of the risk that he is sold abroad or stays in the Championship.
Sixteenth Round
My Pick – Mathieu Debuchy
My pick was pretty simple. I picked Hector Bellerin early and I suspect that his upside is in the high 20s of Premier League matches given the presence/resume/salary of Debuchy. I don’t think Debuchy will be as productive as Bellerin in the matches he does get but being certain about having a starter available for the 10 or so matches Bellerin doesn’t play makes Debuchy the platonic ideal of a handcuff pick. I was also happy that Debuchy lasted until the 16th round. People were drafting parts of a handcuff tandem as “orphans” earlier than I expected and I was at least a little worried that someone might bet on Debuchy’s upside as a potential starter at outside back on a top four side.
Seventeenth Round
My Pick: Ben Foster
My second handcuff pick ensures that I’ll get the back half of the Tony Pulis goalkeeper situation assuming Foster stays on track for an early 2016 return to action.
Conclusion
I wrote my notes in real time as the draft was happening so for better or worse, you could see my strategy unfolding pretty much the way I hoped it would. My preference is to take calculated risks with relatively low downsides and strong, but not incredible upsides after the first few rounds of drafting what should be pretty much sure things. As an example of a risk/reward proposition I didn’t like, betting on Memphis Depay to be first round-worthy in his first season in the Premier League in a crowded United attack has big upside but it also has big potential downside if it takes him half of a season to bed in. Betting that Fer/Phillips/N’Doye/Remy end up as starters somewhere in the Premier League this season constitutes a much smaller risk. The payoffs for that smaller risk isn’t nearly as high as the “Next Ronaldo” projections that the optimists are throwing out for Depay. Loic Remy isn’t going to be Diego Costa or Sergio Aguero regardless of how many starts he gets nor is Dame N’Doye. What these risks could produce are excellent depth in very good players that, if they pay off, give me options. Those options come in the form of the ammunition to trade for a single exceptional asset by combining multiple pretty good ones (trading quality depth for excellence), the ability to weather a series of injuries without having to lean on the guys inevitably available on waivers, the ability to hold my waiver claim until someone really fantastic comes along at the close of the transfer window, or the ability to power through the brutal holiday period with full starting line-ups for every match-up as other managers are struggling with rotation issues and injuries.
The other tendency that I have is for looking for value in things that others undervalue. In this case (and in most Premier League drafts or auctions), the commodities that are undervalued are newly promoted players, players from mid-to-bottom of the table clubs, and players who are newly arrived at clubs outside the top five or six clubs. The transfer window hasn’t gone far enough for that last category to be of much use in this particular draft but in Wilson, Fer, Phillips, N’Doye, van Aanholt, Myhill/Foster and even Sigurdsson I’ve got a squad of fairly unfashionable players from relatively unsuccessful clubs. What they do have is a high likelihood of playing every week and having their fantasy success outstrip either their personal or club success in the real world. If my diversion into Arsenal’s midfield works out even decently then I’m going to be a happy manager come next May.
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