Fantasy Roundtable: Roundtable: First-Half MVPs
This is the weekly Fantasy Roundtable, where the writers of Rotoworld Baseball let the readers of Rotoworld Baseball in on a quick staff discussion. It’s water cooler talk … that we’ve decided to publish. Look for it every Tuesday.
Drew Silva: We’re approaching the halfway point of the regular season, so I want to spend the next several Fantasy Roundtables doing an assessment-type thing. Let’s hear your first-half fantasy MVPs from the National League and American League. Hitters-only on this, and then we can touch on pitchers next week. At some point before or right around the All-Star break, we’ll do predictions for the second half along these same lines. Bill, start it off for us with your pick for the NL’s first-half fantasy MVP …
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Bill Baer: As much as I want to say Bryce Harper here, I’m going to go with Paul Goldschmidt. They’ve hit about the same in terms of average and on-base percentage and compiled nearly identical totals in RBI and runs scored. Harper has provided a bit more power than him with four more home runs and 75 more points in slugging. However, since slugging percentage isn’t used in almost any fantasy format, the fact that Goldschmidt has stolen 13 bases to Harper’s three gives him the title of first half fantasy MVP in my book.
D.J. Short: If this was an actual MVP vote based purely on production, I would likely have a different answer, but the fantasy angle changes the way I look at this. For example, in the National League, we were expecting Paul Goldschmidt to be an elite contributor. He was selected in the top half of the first round in most leagues. Getting value later is what can make the big difference in the standings. This is why Harper gets the edge with me. He was selected at 30.4 on average in Yahoo, which means that he was a third-round pick in many leagues. Todd Frazier (53.2 average pick) and Nolan Arenado (47th average pick) also have strong cases through this prism.
Ryan Boyer: I have to go with Frazier in the National League. He ranks just a hair behind Harper on our Player Rater as far as fantasy value produced this season, and as D.J. outlined, he was able to be snagged over 20 picks later than Harper in drafts this spring. I think everyone believed Frazier’s power breakout last season was for real, but he’s taken it to another level in 2015, putting up a 54-homer, 117-RBI pace. But, what has surprised me is that he’s pretty much maintained his out-of-nowhere 20-steal pace from last year, swiping eight so far this season for a 17-steal pace. Frazier has more stolen bases than Mike Trout since the beginning of last season, which is a little nuts to think about.
Matthew Pouliot: While Goldschmidt has been the NL’s best player for fantasy purposes thus far, Frazier gets the edge when it comes to MVP honors, simply because he wasn’t a first-round pick anywhere. Dee Gordon is probably next closest as far as bang-for-the-buck, but I had Gordon quite a bit higher than Frazier in my rankings. I thought Frazier might match his 2014 power numbers this year, but I didn’t think he’d hit for such a solid average again and I also thought the 20 steals last year would go down as a fluke total for him. However, he’s at .289 with eight steals right now. Not to mention the 25 homers.
Drew Silva: Now how about in the American League? Bill, start us off again.
Bill Baer: I’m going with Miguel Cabrera over Mike Trout. Trout has five more home runs and seven more stolen bases, but Cabrera has 50 points in batting average and 10 more RBI. While that argument would be ludicrous in a non-fantasy-centric MVP debate, it’s the crux of the matter here. Would I trade 50 points of batting average and 10 RBI for five homers and seven steals? That’s why I’d go with Cabrera. Josh Donaldson is worthy of mention too, but Trout has been nearly equal or just a little bit better than Donaldson in every area.
D.J. Short: Using this same approach as I did for my pick in the National League, it’s Donaldson over both Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera, who were gone by the first few picks in most leagues. Donaldson was selected at No. 25 on average in Yahoo, which puts him somewhere in the middle of the second round. Even putting the average draft position aside, going with Donaldson over Trout and Cabrera isn’t much of a stretch. He has earned it with his production during his first season with Toronto. Jason Kipnis (101.6 average pick), Brett Gardner (110.2 average pick), and Manny Machado (115.8 average pick) have also been excellent values to really move the needle in the standings so far.
Matthew Pouliot: I’d take Gardner over Machado after the huge June he had. Gardner’s season wasn’t looking particularly remarkable a month ago, but he was still providing solid value based on where was was taken. After hitting .355 with five homers, 18 RBI and 27 runs scored in June, he’s in the group right behind Trout as far as fantasy production. I don’t expect it to continue — he’s not this kind of hitter for average, and he does have the durability issues — but he’s the MVP so far.
Ryan Boyer: The names that have already been thrown out for the American League are all fine choices. I’d probably have to pick Machado or Gardner based on where they were drafted, but another guy I want to throw a bone to is Prince Fielder. Fielder had an operation on his neck last year that had the potential to wreck his career, which is why he understandably fell in drafts this spring. He’s gone back to being the iron man he was before 2014, though, starting 75 of the Rangers’ 77 games this season. Prince’s production has been fantastic, as he’s essentially matching Cabrera category-for-category after being taken about 50 picks later than him in drafts.
Disagree? Want to add something? Got a question? You can find each of these @Rotoworld_BB writers on Twitter: @drewsilv, @baer_bill, @djshort, @ryanpboyer, @matthewpouliot.
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