NFL Summer Series – Quarterbacks: Status quo or status woe? – Florida Times-Union
Starting today and running through July 19, the Times-Union will take a look at all 32 NFL teams in one category.
Today: Quarterbacks.
July 5: Who has a No. 1 receiver?
July 12: Expectations for first-round picks.
July 19: Bold predictions.
THEY’RE THE FRANCHISE (10)
Arizona: The Cardinals were 7-1 and winning in Game 9 when Carson Palmer sustained a torn ACL. Arizona scored 14, 3, 18, 17, 12, 6, 17 and 16 points the rest of the way, losing in the wild card round. That’s why Palmer is in this category.
Baltimore: Joe Flacco has never missed a start in his seven-year career and is 32 games over .500 (72-40). What’s more impressive is that Flacco’s offensive coordinator keeps on changing — Marc Trestman this year will be his fourth in four years.
Dallas: For as long as Tony Romo’s back — and the rest of his body — holds up, he’ll be in this category. He completed a career-high 69.9 percent of his passes last year and even at 35, he knows how to slide around and out of the pocket to create extra time to throw.
Denver: This will be a fascinating year for Peyton Manning, the shield’s all-time touchdown pass leader (530) who has won at least 10 games in his last 12 seasons. New system. No Julius Thomas. A revamped offensive line. No Wes Welker. The Broncos are cooked if Manning isn’t great.
Green Bay: Aaron Rodgers’ statistics are prolific — two-time MVP, 70-33 record, 226 touchdowns and 57 interceptions. But he’s only 2-4 in the playoffs since the Packers won the Super Bowl after the 2010 season. Rodgers transitions this year to a new play-caller (Tom Clements) and position coach (Alex Van Pelt).
New England: Tom Brady’s attempt at a record-setting fifth Super Bowl title could be delayed by as many as four games for his alleged role in DeflateGate. The Patriots drafted Jimmy Garoppolo in 2014 (second round) with an eye toward the post-Brady era. He’ll be The Guy if Tom Terrific’s ban is upheld.
New Orleans: Since joining the Saints in 2006, Brees has led the league in passing yards five times and touchdown passes last year. He’s without tight end Jimmy Graham (flipped to Seattle). This is a big year for the Saints, who have gone 7-9 twice in the last three seasons.
New York Giants: Eli Manning’s two Super Bowl wins (both over Brady) keep him in this section and he increased his completion percentage from 57.5 in 2013 to a career-best 63.1 last year. Big Blue has missed the playoffs three straight years, though. If Manning is smart, he will throw to Odell Beckham 150 times.
Pittsburgh: Now 106-52 with two Super Bowl titles, Ben Roethlisberger posted career highs last year in passing yards (4,952) and completion percentage (67.1). He’s had one losing season. He has played through multiple injuries. He is still elite.
San Diego: Could this be it for Phillip Rivers with the Bolts? His contract expires in March. He has one losing season in nine years as a starter (having never missed a start). He threw a career-high 18 interceptions last year, but we love gunslingers, and Rivers checks that box.
THEY’RE PAID LIKE A FRANCHISE QB (5)
Atlanta: Matt Ryan is 22 games over .500 (66-44) and a nearly 2-to-1 TD-INT ratio (181-91). But he’s 1-4 in the playoffs. Ryan (salary cap number: $19.5 million) will be an interesting watch this year — he is working with a new play-caller, Kyle Shanahan, after working with Dirk Koetter his entire career.
Chicago: Jay Cutler has a $16.5 million cap number and is on his third head coach in four years. The Bears probably can’t wait to move on from him.
Carolina: The Panthers went all-in with Cam Newton earlier this month, signing him to a five-year, $103.8 million extension that includes $22.5 million guaranteed. He is 30-31-1 as a starter but has 82 touchdowns against 54 interceptions.
Detroit: Matthew Stafford has hit the lottery twice — he entered the league in 2009, two years ahead of the rookie wage scale, which meant his second contract was gigantic ($17.7 million cap number this year). He has no playoff wins and is 35-42 in the regular season.
Kansas City: Alex Smith’s cap number jumps from $4.6 million to $15.6 million this year. He’s 10 games over .500 (57-47-1) but has one playoff win and only one season of at least 20 touchdown passes.
PAYDAY COMING SOON (2)
Indianapolis: Andrew Luck’s new contract — whenever it comes — will likely be the richest in NFL history (the guess here is as an annual average value of $25 million). Luck is 33-15 in the regular season (86 touchdowns and 43 interceptions). Starting a team from scratch? He’d be the first pick.
Seattle: Including the playoffs, Russell Wilson is 42-14 with 84 TDs and 32 INTs. Because he’s a mid-round pick, his contract expires a year earlier than Luck’s. The Seahawks’ defense is world-class, but Wilson is the franchise’s pulse.
BETTER THIS YEAR THAN LAST (3)
Jaguars: A second season, a second offense for Blake Bortles. The mechanics thing? Completely overrated (just ask some people within the organization). The going-to-make-progress thing? Totally expected.
Minnesota: Like Bortles, Teddy Bridgewater took over during Game 3 and never gave up the job (although he missed a game because of injury). Two things in Bridgewater’s favor are he gets Adrian Peterson back and offensive coordinator Norv Turner is one of the league’s best play-callers/developers.
Oakland: A second season, a second offense for Derek Carr. He started every game for the Raiders last year (21 touchdowns, 12 interceptions). The Raiders need him to be The Answer after so many years of quarterback instability.
NO MAN’S LAND (3)
Cincinnati: Andy Dalton is 17 games over .500 and has 33 more touchdowns than interceptions. Plus, he has never missed a game in his four years. But the “but” is a biggie — 0-4 in the playoffs with one touchdown and six picks. This is a Show-Us Year for Dalton, whose cap number jumps from $9.6 million to $13.1 million in 2016.
Miami: Ryan Tannehill’s new contract — which includes $21.5 million guaranteed — kicks in next year, when his cap number jumps from $4.87 million to $11.64 million. Tannehill is a classic example of, “He’s not elite, but we better pay him because it would be tough to find somebody better.”
San Francisco: The 49ers have been decimated by retirements and other departures (chiefly coach Jim Harbaugh), leaving Colin Kaepernick as the franchise’s face. His cap number is $15.3 million, up from $3.8 million last year. The 49ers seem to be rudderless at this point.
DO THEY EVEN KNOW WHO’S STARTING? (3)
Buffalo: Matt Cassel, Tyrod Taylor or EJ Manuel? Let’s count out Manuel because he was inherited by Rex Ryan and his staff. Let’s throw out Taylor because of his inexperience. If Cassel is the answer, nobody wants to know the question.
Cleveland: Josh McCown … probably, right? Johnny Manziel later on? A debacle.
Houston: Ryan Mallett or Brian Hoyer? The last time we saw Hoyer, he was floundering in Cleveland’s October loss to the Jaguars. Mallett hasn’t played a lot. Is Bill O’Brien waiting until next year’s draft to trade up to get Christian Hackenberg, his former Penn State quarterback?
ONE LAST CHANCE (4)
New York Jets: They traded for Ryan Fitzpatrick and then up (with the Jaguars) to draft Bryce Petty in the fourth round but are committed this summer to giving Geno Smith a chance. Does Smith make it out of October?
Philadelphia: Sam Bradford carries a $12.985 million cap number and multiple knee surgeries with him to the Eagles. His six-year, $78 million rookie contract (the last before the wage scale kicked in) expires after this season.
St. Louis: If Nick Foles pans out, he’ll be one of the league’s best bargains this year ($1.542 million). The Rams gave up on Bradford and reportedly want to extend Foles. They should wait.
Washington: Robert Griffin III is 5-15 with 20 TDs and 18 INTs the last two years and has already sustained major knee and ankle injuries. The Redskins picked up his 2016 option ($16.2 million) but that only becomes guaranteed if he’s still on the roster in March.
THE ROOKIES (2)
Tampa Bay: The Buccaneers haven’t announced a Week 1 starter, but they should go with top overall pick Jameis Winston from the hop. General manager Jason Licht, coach Lovie Smith and Co. made the right call taking Winston over Marcus Mariota.
Tennessee: Speaking of Mariota, things are a little murkier with the Titans because of his expected transition from a spread offense to an NFL scheme. Don’t be surprised if Zach Mettenberger gets the opening-day call.
Ryan O’Halloran: (904) 359-4401
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