Offseason Low Down: Packers Fantasy Preview

Packers Year in Review

2014 Pass Attempts Rank: 20th (536)
2014 Rush Attempts Rank: 14th (435)
2014 Total Offensive Plays Rank: 24th (1,001)
2014 Yards Per Play Rank: 1st (6.2)

Projected Starting Lineup

QB: Aaron Rodgers
RB: Eddie Lacy
WR: Jordy Nelson
WR: Randall Cobb
WR: Davante Adams
TE: Andrew Quarless
LT: David Bakhtiari
LG: Josh Sitton
C: Corey Linsley
RG: T.J. Lang
RT: Bryan Bulaga

Passing Game Outlook

Aaron Rodgers was so dominant in 2014 that the Packers continuously took their pedal off the gas in second halves of games, which actually served to limit Rodgers’ stats. Rodgers still overtook Andrew Luck as fantasy’s top quarterback late in the season, but there was “meat on the bone,” as Joseph Randle might say. Despite ranking 24th in offensive snaps, last year’s Packers led the NFL in scoring and finished No. 1 in yards per play. Rodgers captains a truly special offense that returns all 11 starters, including second-year C Corey Linsley and second-year WR Davante Adams. I’m not into using high fantasy picks on quarterbacks, but can’t quibble with Rodgers in the second round. It’s unlikely that Green Bay will have to tap the breaks as often as they did last season. Expect improvement in Rodgers’ fantasy numbers.

I’ve ranked Jordy Nelson aggressively the past several seasons and he’s delivered with top-12 wideout finishes in three of the last four years, including two top-three campaigns. I’m treading a little lightly this season as 30-year-old Nelson returns from offseason hip surgery. All reports on Nelson’s progress have been upbeat, and it’s entirely conceivable Jordy’s 2015 goes off without a hitch. It’s also possible the hip gives him problems when he resumes practicing or playing, which would be an obvious red flag. I still have Nelson as a top-ten receiver, but am unwilling to place him ahead of younger, healthier options in the “elite” tier. It was slightly concerning to me to see Nelson struggle to win against Brandon Carr‘s man coverage in January’s playoffs. Jordy finished that game with 22 yards on five targets.

Randall Cobb went berserk in his 2014 contract year, establishing career bests in catches (91), yards, (1,287), and touchdowns (12) while exhibiting a natural chemistry with Aaron Rodgers on broken plays, and/or passes that took place outside the pocket. Locked up this March on a four-year, $40 million deal, Cobb is not yet 24 years old. (He’s only six months older than rising Panthers second-year WR Kelvin Benjamin.) While projecting 5-foot-10, 191-pound Cobb to repeat double-digit TDs would probably not be a great bet, he does have room for growth in receptions and yards. The Packers’ lack of a consistent pass-catching tight end solidifies Cobb as at worst the No. 2 option in Rodgers’ passing attack, and Cobb’s upside could get a boost if Jordy Nelson‘s surgically repaired hip becomes problematic. Cobb is a low-end, but high-floor WR1 with an underrated 2015 ceiling. He’s a value at his 2.12 ADP.

2014 second-round pick Davante Adams needed just three weeks to usurp Jarrett Boykin as the Packers’ third receiver and assert himself as a roughly 70% player on offense. Adams was a hit-or-miss producer as Green Bay’s No. 4 option behind Eddie Lacy, Jordy Nelson, and Randall Cobb, but flashed his potential in a 6-121 late-season bout with the Patriots, and a 7-117-1 playoff effort against Dallas. There were growing pains, however, as Adams ranked a disappointing 75th in fantasy receiver scoring and managed a 61.3% catch rate, a low number considering the greatness of his quarterback. Bear in mind Adams was a 21-year-old rookie who got better as the season progressed. The “MVP of OTAs” according to head coach Mike McCarthy, Adams returns locked in as Green Bay’s No. 3 receiver. Adams is built like Hakeem Nicks, but is better than Nicks ever was after the catch. I like Adams’ chances of pushing for WR3 value in year two, and perhaps making a big leap if something goes wrong for Jordy.

Andrew Quarless and Richard Rodgers are role-player tight ends who offer minimal fantasy appeal. In-line starter Quarless is a known commodity; he’s been in the NFL five seasons and never so much as finished as a fantasy TE2. Theoretical “flex” tight end Rodgers is a second-year player whose abysmal run blocking may always pose a threat to his playing time, and whose athletic deficiencies cap his pass-catching ceiling, even in an Aaron Rodgers-led attack. At 6-foot-4, 257, Rodgers runs 4.87 with a 31 1/2-inch vertical and sluggish 7.23 three-cone time. His college production was another red flag, managing two career touchdowns at Cal. Rodgers has garnered some intrigue in the fantasy community as a top-100 NFL draft pick on the Packers, but he doesn’t project as more than a part-time player in the short or long term. I have little hope for Quarless or Rodgers emerging as a fantasy starter this year.

Running Game Outlook

Eddie Lacy has made 31 NFL appearances. He’s scored 24 career TDs and averaged 96.8 total yards per game. Lacy’s carries dipped last season as the Packers treated him as more of a complementary player than the featured piece Lacy was with Aaron Rodgers injured as a rookie, but his targets jumped from 44 to 55, and Lacy was more efficient on the ground, averaging 4.63 YPC. A legitimate three-down bellcow and one of the best short-yardage/goal-line runners in football, Lacy may struggle to top 300 touches again this season, but is a good bet to hit pay dirt week in and week out. Lacy has finished each of his first two NFL seasons as a top-six fantasy back and warrants selection in the first half of round one in 2015 drafts.

James Starks generated scant interest in 2014 free agency before re-signing with the Packers for two years and $3.166 million. Including bonuses, he can earn $2.15 million in 2015, the final year of Starks’ deal. Now 29, Starks is a trusty No. 2 runner, but is not as skilled in the passing game as Lacy and earned nine or more carries in just two games last year. While it’s clear Starks isn’t a real threat to Lacy’s workload, he’s one of the better handcuffs in fantasy. If something happened to Lacy, Starks would take over as the feature back in an Aaron Rodgers offense. Rajion Neal and John Crockett do not pose serious competition for Starks’ No. 2 job.

Vegas Win Total

The Packers’ 2015 Win Total is 11 games, tied with Seattle for the highest in football. As I’ve alluded to previously in these writeups, the biggest risk taking the over on teams — particularly ones with very high win totals — is the possibility of the quarterback getting hurt. In that scenario, Aaron Rodgers would give way to Scott Tolzien, a popgun-armed former UDFA out of Wisconsin. Still, I think the best bet is the over on Green Bay’s win total. The Packers have a good chance to field the NFL’s best offense this season, and their defensive personnel is above average at worst. There is not an NFC North opponent that is legitimately threatening to Green Bay’s division crown, and the Packers’ schedule otherwise is unimposing.

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