Transfer Talk: Bas Dost and the Money League

It is the constant refrain of football players and their agents that they want to move to a “bigger” club because they want to compete at a higher level. They want to compete for titles, for cups, and ultimately in the Champions League. They say this to ensure the supporters of the club that they are leaving that they love the club but there are new frontiers that have to be conquered and, as a competitor, that we should understand their need to compete at the highest level they are capable of. I don’t want to be entirely cynical and say that the best competitors in the world don’t want to play in the biggest competitions in the world but let’s not fool ourselves too much. “I want to play in the Champions League” is also easy code for “I want to play for a club that is banking Champions League money and can afford to pay me more than whatever mid-table club I’m currently playing for”. The Premier League is about to test this code in a serious way.

The challenge that the Premier League’s new domestic TV deal (followed later this summer by their new international deal) will put to players is whether they want to chase money in the middle of the Premier League table or glory in the Champions League elsewhere. On the topic of Newcastle target Bas Dost, Wolfsburg manager Dieter Hecking said “Why should he go to Newcastle? Bas can play Champions League football with us and he won’t be able to do that at Newcastle in the upcoming years!” The thing is, no one can argue with the facts there. Wolfsburg are in the Champions League. Newcastle aren’t and there’s almost zero chance that they ever will be (sorry Magpies, but it’s true). For a generation of media and supporters raised on the “I want to play in the Champions League” mantra from players looking for the “next step” in their careers, his statement makes sense. It may not for much longer.

“I want to compete for [fill in the blank]” works for supporters as a reason a star wants to leave because no supporter wants to hear “I’m leaving for more money” from one of their local heroes. How then, are Bas Dost’s agents and PR advisors going to break the news to Dieter Hecking and the Wolfsburg faithful that there is a very good reason that he would entertain leaving Wolfsburg for Newcastle…money. It isn’t a romatic reason, but it’s a reason that no one should doubt. In the January 2015 edition of the Deloitte Monday League Report, Newcastle was the 19th highest grossing club in world football despite the lack of any revenue from European competition. Wolfsburg, for all of it’s corporate ownership by Volkswagon, wasn’t in the Top 30 grossing clubs. The financial numbers used to compile this list were from the 2013-14 season meaning that even two summer transfer windows ago, Newcastle had more financial strength than Wolfsburg.

The jarring thing for the rest of the world is that since that report was published, the Premier League’s new TV deal has been signed meaning that Newcastle will see domestic TV revenue increase by 70%. In the 2013-14 season, Newcastle made £78million or more than half it’s revenue from broadcast deals – domestic and foreign. With the domestic deal already set to go up 70% starting with the 2016-17 season and the international deal set to be agreed this summer with the US alone likely to boost the total significantly after record ratings, Newcastle could see itself earn well over £125million in TV money alone. Just to give you an idea, that would put the Magpies at 27th in the 2015 ON BROADCAST MONEY ALONE. That means that before they sell a single ticket or replica shirt, Newcastle has the potential to be the 27th highest grossing club in the world. Throw in a stadium almost twice the size of Wolfsburg’s 30,000-seater and the logic behind a Bas Dost move might not be romantic but it certainly makes financial sense.

There’s a scenario where an enterprising agent, who, remember, gets a percentage of everything the player earns but could care less about playing in the Champions League, lays out the following case to his client:

The Champions League means more matches and wear and tear assoicated with long trips between matches
Playing in the Champions League might ultimately shorten your career
Why not play for a mid-table club in the Premier League “the best league in the world” for more money and play fewer games?
Did I mention you’d be making more money in two ways? You’d make more on this contract AND you might be able to get one additional contract out of your body before you have to retire because you’ll have played fewer matches.

I’m not suggesting that the next Lionel Messi or the next Cristiano Ronaldo is going to see the logic in this. However, there is a second and third tier of players – Bas Dost, Demba Ba, Yevhen Konoplyanka, and the like – who are probably looking at offers from second tier Champions League clubs in Spain, Italy, Germany or Turkey against offers from the likes of Newcastle, West Brom, Aston Villa or Everton. That tier of players may have to start working on their PR chops to explain to their current supporters why they’re even considering leaving or turning down a better competitive situation for mid-weeks spent at the Newcastle City Centre or enjoying a Rainy Wednesday Night in Stoke while watching the Champions League on the biggest TV that the Premier League’s riches can buy them.

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