Saves and Steals: All About Setup Men
Let’s do something different this week. Usually, we discuss what all closers have done over the last week. Most of them have an ordinary week where they throw a few times and strike out some guys. This time, I’m going to focus on setup men. For those closers who have performed poorly, we’ll still talk about them too. If a guy isn’t specifically mentioned today, assume that he had a solid week. Now, shall we talk setup men?
Before we jump to the meat and potatoes, here’s an overview of noteworthy base thieves. The league wide stolen base rate remains 69.7 percent. Billy Hamilton (33) is the only rabbit with over 30 swipes (33). Dee Gordon (24) is the only other guy over 20 steals. Ben Revere, Jose Altuve, Charlie Blackmon, and Gregory Polanco are closing in on 20. Over the last week, Revere, Gerardo Parra, Lorenzo Cain, and Carlos Correa were the most active with three steals apiece. Parra has a history of a high caught stealing rate. Be careful using him in leagues that penalize caught stealings.
Tier 1: Elite (5)
Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds
Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
David Robertson, Chicago White Sox
Dellin Betances, New York Yankees
Craig Kimbrel, San Diego Padres
Most of our relief aces pitched well this week. Chapman is currently on paternity leave. He’s expected to return to action tomorrow. In his absence, J.J. Hoover appears to be the setup man du jour. Hoover’s 1.44 ERA is the result of a .172 BABIP. A 4.07 xFIP reveals him as a typical middle reliever. The Reds have struggled to find anybody to pitch in front of Chapman. Tony Cingrani and Jumbo Diaz have shown positive flashes. Cingrani is sidelined at the moment.
Jansen has allowed four hits, no walks, and struck out 22 in 12.2 innings. It’s a short run, but he’s been beyond fantastic. In case of injury, Yimi Garcia is first in line for saves. His fastball-slider mix produces a high whiff rate. With 12.51 K/9 and 2.56 BB/9, he’s ownable in most roto leagues.
Like the Reds, the White Sox have an unstable bullpen. Robertson blew a save against the Rangers last Friday, but he’s since bounced back. If anything happens to him, a combination of Jake Petricka and Zach Duke will absorb the ninth inning. Duke, a sidewinding southpaw, is the better pitcher. He’s struggled with his command this season. Petricka’s low strikeout rate isn’t ideal for the ninth inning. His ground ball rate makes him a poor man’s Zach Britton.
Betances took an ugly loss against the Phillies a couple days ago. Entering the ninth of a 6-6 game, Betances allowed two hits and hit two batters. All four base runners scored. Long term, Andrew Miller will want his old job back. I expect Betances to fend him off, but he’ll have to avoid these no-control outings. For now, I suppose Justin Wilson is the eighth inning guy. He hasn’t allowed a home run in 25.2 innings. Regression will push him back to the middle innings.
The Padres have a couple excellent alternatives to Kimbrel if they decide to repurpose him at the trade deadline. Kimbrel ousted splitter specialist Joaquin Benoit, but Brandon Maurer is the primary setup man these days. He has the stuff to rack up strikeouts, but he has only 7.00 K/9. Other pitchers with a 13 percent swinging strike rate record well over a strikeout per inning. Maurer uses his cutter to induce weak contact. His soft contact rate puts him on par with a couple dozen of the best relievers in the game.
Tier 2: The Upside Crowd (5)
Brad Boxberger, Jake McGee Tampa Bay Rays
Zach Britton, Baltimore Orioles
Trevor Rosenthal, St. Louis Cardinals
Jeurys Familia, New York Mets
Greg Holland, Kansas City Royals
The Rays mystery bullpen continues. Boxberger has been reinstated in the ninth inning after it looked all but certain that McGee had stolen the job. Boxberger snagged four saves while McGee notched two holds. Both guys are excellent pitchers.
Britton allowed a couple runs and failed to record a strikeout across four outings. He did notch three saves in the process. Britton’s job is secure. If something were to happen, Darren O’Day and Tommy Hunter are next in line. O’Day is a better version of Brad Ziegler – lefties mash him. Hunter is a hard thrower with a low strikeout rate.
Rosenthal is back in action after a minor arm injury sidelined him for a few days. Kevin Siegrist snagged a couple saves in his absence. Rosenthal is worked frequently. If the arm injury recurs, Siegrist offers plenty of upside. He’d be a Tier 3 closer.
The Mets are trying to contend in the NL East. They better hope Familia is fully recovered from his minor groin injury. Bobby Parnell has survived 4.2 innings, but it’s only a matter of time before he’s hammered. He’s lost five mph from his peak velocity. Carlos Torres is a smarter eighth inning guy. Jennry Mejia will eventually return too.
Holland recovered from last week’s three run clunker with a trio of saves. He continues to walk too many batters. At least he also fanned five in his three innings. Davis remains an elite setup man.
Tier 3: The Mid-Tier (10)
Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies
Glen Perkins, Minnesota Twins
Cody Allen, Cleveland Indians
Drew Storen, Washington Nationals
Mark Melancon, Pittsburgh Pirates
Jason Grilli, Atlanta Braves
Koji Uehara, Boston Red Sox
Huston Street, Los Angeles Angels
A.J. Ramos, Miami Marlins
Francisco Rodriguez, Milwaukee Brewers
With three runs allowed in his last two outings, Papelbon is not helping his trade value. However, a swap is inevitable. The Blue Jays are desperate for relief help. The Cubs are also searching for stability in their bullpen. When he’s dealt, Ken Giles will assume the ninth inning. He had his share of hiccups early in the season as he adjusted to his reduced velocity (now just 96 mph). His fastball-slider combination still gives hitters fits.
The Twins have a terrible bullpen after Perkins. Either Blaine Boyer or Casey Fien would fill in for an injured Perkins. Boyer is a command and control guy with a low strikeout rate. Fien has the same profile, except he has superior command.
Allen continues to roll. In case the BABIP monster returns, Bryan Shaw is the most experienced late inning guy in the Indians bullpen. He would be a Tier 4 or 5 quality closer. Zach McAllister has a classic closer profile. Cleveland might prefer to use him in lower leverage situations.
Storen is in the midst of his best season, but what happens if he hits the disabled list? Well, that’s a potentially ugly scenario. Casey Janssen is working the eighth inning, but his no-strikeout profile is worrisome. Matt Thornton and Aaron Barrett could also factor into the ninth inning. Barrett is currently out with a biceps strain. The Nats are one of the teams looking for a late inning reliever.
Melancon now leads the league with 24 saves. He added three over the last week along with six strikeouts. His velocity has returned to 2014 levels within his last four appearances. He’ll shoot up to Tier 2 if that keeps up another week. Tony Watson and Arquimedes Caminero would be league average closers if given the chance. My previous warnings about Melancon are null and void if his velocity is back.
We’ve discussed Grilli’s back up quite a few times due to his suspect health. Back problems in a 38-year-old are liable to recur. Jim Johnson is good enough to pick up saves, but he won’t help in other categories.
Trade rumors are starting to swirl around the Red Sox. The surprise is that they’re seen as potential sellers. Uehara is one of the guys who could be shipped elsewhere. He’s probably the type of guy the Nationals would like to acquire for the eighth inning. His contract is a complication. Junichi Tazawa is eighth inning man in Boston. He strikes out about a batter per inning with a low walk rate. He’d check in at the bottom of Tier 3.
Looking only at strikeouts and walks, Joe Smith is extremely similar to Huston Street. However, Street’s slider is a difference maker. As we saw last season, Smith can pinch hit in the ninth inning. L.A. will always want a higher ceiling option closing games.
Ramos is very good, but he has control problems in his history. If those return, Carter Capps should be next in line. Capps may be a top two reliever although it’s hard to anticipate consistency out of his funky delivery. He has an absurd 25.9 percent swinging strike rate. It’s the highest such rate of any pitcher with more than 10 innings (Jansen, 21% SwStr%). He won’t continue to post such a high rate, but it should remain among the best in the league.
At least to me, a K-Rod trade seems inevitable. There’s no guarantee that he’ll be closing games for his new team. Once he’s gone, my money is on Jeremy Jeffress even though Will Smith is the better pitcher. Jeffress appears to be making good on his once promising profile. Smith may be a southpaw, but he can hold righties in check too.
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