Positional Fallers: Positional Fallers: PF
Is Kevin Love still worth a first round pick?
The power forward bucket is a changing crop of prospects. Names like Dirk Nowitzki have been replaced with names like Derrick Favors and a new wave of big men are coming to dominate the NBA. In an evolving league, owners need to be aware of an evolving landscape.
You’re not getting Pau Gasol on the cheap this time around. Paul Millsap’s under-the-radar skills? Even the most casual owner who only checks his roster from his iPhone while programming his Google Calendar for the week knows about Atlanta’s breakout campaign.
The worst thing to do is draft on name value alone. Let’s take a look at four familiar names who no longer offer the same appeal.
ADPs can be found here. Click here to see next season’s expected point guard fallers, here for shooting guards and here for small forwards.
Kevin Love, PF/C Cleveland Cavaliers (Player Option)
2014 ADP: 8.55 overall, Round 1.09
Key Stats: 16.4 points, 9.7 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.5 blocks, 1.6 TO, 1.9 3-pointers, 43.4% shooting, 80.4% FT shooting
When Kevin Love was shipped to the Cleveland Cavaliers in a mega-trade that sent Andrew Wiggins to the Minnesota Timberwolves, there were rumblings of how it would impact Love’s fantasy value. No longer would he be the stat-sheet-stuffing one man band that he had been with his old team, but few projected the decline in production that we saw from Love during his first (and only?) go-around in “The Land.”
After Love posted a monstrous 2013-14 that saw him log video game numbers (26.1 points, 12.5 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 2.5 triples) over 77 games, Love’s scoring average dipped by almost 10 points after having his role redefined on LeBron James’ team. No longer was he at the center of everything his team did, and often Love served as a glorified stretch four (hi, Chris Bosh) in order to open up the offense for LeBron and point guard Kyrie Irving.
If we’re expected to take Love at his word, he’ll be back with the same cast of characters next season and not much will change about his role in the offense. If we’re to believe the constant and rampant speculation that Love is headed for a different team, that changes the scenario, but Love’s health is also an important factor to consider when making your draft day investment. Considering the severity and timing of his shoulder injury (and subsequent procedure), it’s not a lock that the big man will be ready for the regular season. No matter where Love lands, he’s no longer the slam dunk first-round pick he once was.
Dirk Nowitzki, PF/C Dallas Mavericks
2014 ADP: 23.22 overall, Round 2.43
Key Stats: 17.3 points, 5.9 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.4 blocks, 1.1 TO, 1.4 3-pointers, 45.9% shooting, 88.2% FT shooting
Dirk Nowitzki has been hinting at a decreased role for the last two offseasons, and now that he appears willing to recruit LaMarcus Aldridge to Dallas, you know that the big man is serious about not carrying the load that he once did for the only franchise he’s ever known. And since his numbers – including minutes – declined across the board from the previous season, it’s probably a good idea to start looking ahead to the post-Nowitzki era.
This is a player who had a higher ADP than Pau Gasol, Paul Millsap, Tim Duncan and Derrick Favors before last season began. That’s not going to happen again, and Nowitzki can no longer be drafted as the frontline option that will anchor the frontcourt of your fantasy team. Nowitzki doesn’t do quite enough in any one category to even flirt with specialist status, but he also doesn’t do enough across the board to justify using an early pick on his services. Nowitzki, not unlike his franchise, is dangerously flirting with no-man’s land in a sea of mediocrity.
If Nowitzki only plays around 25 minutes or so per game this season – a very real possibility after clocking in at 29.5 last season – it’s going to dent his appeal even further. And if Dallas’ big offseason addition just so happens to play the same position as Dirk, it won’t be a good omen for Nowitzki’s outlook going forward.
Kenneth Faried, PF Denver Nuggets
2014 ADP: 50.90 overall, Round 4.92
Key Stats: 12.6 points, 8.9 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.8 blocks, 1.6 TO, 50.7% shooting, 69.1% FT shooting
Kenneth Faried looked like the next breakout superstar after a dominant run in the FIBA tournament that resulted in the Denver Nuggets rewarding him with a lucrative new contract, but since signing the deal, Faried has looked like anything but a sure thing.
During a dismal season in Denver in which the Nuggets did absolutely nothing right, Faried’s uneven play was chief among the most pressing concerns. Although he turned it on after the All-Star break with averages of 14.3 points, 9.2 rebounds, 1.1 steals and 1.0 blocks on 51.1% shooting over his final 26 games, Faried had far too many games where he completely disappeared, logging several games that included single-digit points and single-digit rebounds. That is not the type of resume that made him a borderline top-50 pick in drafts before the 2014-15 season began.
While new head coach Michael Malone should help to build a culture where Faried will be held accountable, it’s also possible that the Morehead State product finds himself in another zip code before next season begins. In a brilliant, extended profile of the Nuggets’ organization earlier in the season when Brian Shaw was still head coach, ESPN’s Kevin Arnovitz noted that Faried wasn’t held in high regard within the organization. While that may or may not be true, Faried is going to have to earn his way under Malone if he remains in Denver, and I’m betting on some growing pains in the process.
David West, PF Indiana Pacers
2014 ADP: 71.27 overall, Round 6.66
Key Stats: 11.7 points, 6.8 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.7 blocks, 1.8 TO, 47.1% shooting, 73.9% FT shooting
The Indiana Pacers are in a weird spot.
Paul George (leg) is still working his way back to full strength. George Hill is the second-best player on the team. Roy Hibbert isn’t wanted by his own organization and David West may be entering his final NBA season. The Pacers, who hold the No. 11 pick in Thursday’s NBA draft, are very much a team in transition.
With a desire to play at a faster pace and with a smaller lineup, Hibbert very clearly no longer fits on this club. But where does it leave the veteran West? If George is preparing to play more power forward, could West be staring at a reduced role? It’s hard to imagine Larry Bird sending the veteran away after he’s praised his impact relentlessly while building the Pacers, but there’s no denying the obvious with West: He’s going to take another step back this season. West has had his minutes reduced each of the last three seasons and his scoring has dipped each year as a result. West’s shot attempts and efficiency have both also declined over that same span.
If he’s slated for a role between 20-25 minutes per game, it’s hard to see West averaging more than 10 points, a handful of rebounds and not much else. That’s not going to get it done in any fantasy format.
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