2015 NBA Draft shopping list: Southwest Division
What should teams look for in Thursday’s draft? Our shopping list details the projections and needs of all 30 squads.
Houston Rockets
2014-15 Finish: 56-26, 2nd in West, lost in conference finals
1st Round Picks: No. 18
2nd Round Picks: No. 32
As usual, the flexibility-minded Rockets enter the offseason with several notable players possibly hitting the free agent market. That list includes unlikely postseason stars Corey Brewer (player option) and Josh Smith, starting point guard Patrick Beverley, his playoff fill-in Jason Terry, and several others such as athletic dynamo K.J. McDaniels. In other words, the Rockets could have a number of needs if they don’t bring people back, although general manager Daryl Morey remains a master of finding value players throughout the league.
Regardless of eventual outcomes, the Rockets can certainly use a point guard to protect against the potential loss of Beverley. Several prospects seem to fit the bill at No. 18, such as Duke freshman Tyus Jones and Notre Dame senior Jerian Grant. If Morey wants someone who approximates the incumbent’s elite defensive ability, he could do worse than Utah product Delon Wright. On the other hand, he’s not much of a shooter, and Houston seems predisposed to guys who can spot up. Jones looks like the best fit.
The other area of possible need is on the bench, where the Rockets have many capable players but few who can consistently fill the hoop. While Brewer is no one’s idea of a pure scorer, the Rockets wouldn’t have advanced to the West finals without his punch. Possible options for a similar role include Georgia State shooter R.J. Hunter, Wisconsin forward Sam Dekker, and Arkansas forward Bobby Portis. Houston can also look to grab a shooter with their high second-round pick, and Stanford’s Anthony Brown could be a nice option there.
Of course, the complicating factor here is that Morey loves to move around on draft night and could very well put the Rockets in position to make a big move or add more picks. For all we know, James Harden and Dwight Howard will have a whole new supporting cast by Friday.
Dallas Mavericks
2014-15 Finish: 50-32, 7th in West, lost in first round
1st Round Picks: No. 21
2nd Round Picks: No. 52
Mark Cuban does not appear ready to start the rebuilding process any time soon, which means that the Mavericks are likely to assess their needs and draft to fill gaps on an aging roster. With free agent Rajon Rondo absolutely positively not coming back — will they even let him return as an opposing player? — Dallas is clearly in the market for a point guard. They’re also now likely to look for a shooting guard after Monta Ellis’s decision to opt out. Beverley and Danny Green have already mentioned as targets in free agency and would be solid pickups either separately or together, but the Mavs could just as easily minimize the risk of losing out on established players and go for a young backcourt prospect. Expect them to look at many of the same guys as the Rockets, with Tyus Jones ranking as their most ideal prospect point guard prospect, too. R.J. Hunter could also be a factor at shooting guard.
However, most draft experts expect a run on point guards around No. 21, and it’s possible that the Mavericks will be left without suitable options. If that’s the case, they need similarly major help in the frontcourt, where Dirk Nowitzki, Tyson Chandler, and free agent Amar’e Stoudemire are all aging and likely to miss time. The Mavs badly missed the springy dunking and rim protection of Brandan Wright after losing him in the Rondo deal, and it’s possible that they will opt for an energetic big like Lousville center Montrezl Harrell to fill that need.
Whatever happens in the draft, it’s likely that the Mavericks will need to add several more players via free agency to field a playoff-quality team in a stacked conference. Their playoff woes were blamed on Rondo with good reason, but the majority of their key players are on the downswings of their careers.
Memphis Grizzlies
2014-15 Finish: 55-27, 5th in West, lost in conference semifinals
1st Round Picks: No. 25
2nd Round Picks: None
It’s difficult to assess need when the fate of the offseason rests on one player’s free-agent decision. If Marc Gasol bolts this summer, the Grizzlies will in fact need a new center, but they’ll also require something akin to a reboot. Gasol links the team’s defensive and offensive identities and is essential to everything Memphis does, to the point where it’s hard to imagine them as a functional unit without him. The at-this-time good news is that Gasol looks like a decent bet to stick around, so we can probably move forward under the assumption that the Grizzlies will maintain their grit-and-grind identity.
In that case, the team’s biggest need seems fairly clear — a whole lot of outside shooting. As effective as they’ve been in recent seasons, Memphis remains too one-dimensional to defeat a variety of opponents. That became most clear in their defeat at the hands of the Golden State Warriors. The Grizzlies will likely look for a player such as Hunter (perhaps unlikely to fall to No. 25), UNLV scorer Rashad Vaughn, or Virginia wing Justin Anderson, a more limited scorer but superior defender.
Yet Gasol’s backup Kosta Koufos is also a free agent and likely cannot be replaced easily outside of the draft. With just one pick, Memphis could opt to go after a more battle-tested backup big like Syracuse center Rakeem Christmas or take a flier on very talented Washington center Robert Upshaw, who has battled addiction. Either way, the Grizzlies are going to enter July with some question marks.
San Antonio Spurs
2014-15 Finish: 55-27, 6th in West, lost in first round
1st Round Picks: No. 26
2nd Round Picks: No. 55
If Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili put off retirement for at least one more season, then the Spurs will return one of the most complete rosters in the league. However, their first-round exit at the hands of the Los Angeles Clippers exposed some issues that can’t be explained away by the fact that one missed shot from Chris Paul could have kept them alive for at least one more round. For one thing, both Ginobili and Tony Parker have seen better days, and Kawhi Leonard’s offense isn’t yet at a point where they can depend on him to be the primary shot creator and scorer every night. With Danny Green and Marco Belinelli set to become free agents, there’s every reason for the Spurs to go after more backcourt help.
They will have their pick of many players at that point, including Vaughn and Anderson. If no ideal prospect is on the board, the Spurs could also opt for a big man to back up and eventually replace Tim Duncan, especially if it allows them to trade Tiago Splitter to free up cap space to re-sign Leonard at the max. No great Duncan fill-in will be there at this point (does anyone exist at all?), but San Antonio has found gems in this area of the draft before.
The second-round pick looks like a clear draft-and-stash opportunity, particuarly given the team’s need to accumulate high-potential players for the coming losses to retirement. If R.C. Buford goes that route, it’s important to remember that not every Spurs draftee from overseas ends up as a star. Parker and Ginobili were the outliers, not the representative sample.
New Orleans Pelicans
2014-15 Finish: 45-37, 8th in West, lost in first round
1st Round Picks: None
2nd Round Picks: No. 56
General manager Dell Demps and new head coach Alvin Gentry have a number of roster spots to fill this summer, but nearly all of them involve end-of-rotation and end-of-bench roles vacated by players with expiring contracts. Apart from starting center Omer Asik and restricted free agent Norris Cole, all the big names will be back in New Orleans. It’ll be up to Gentry to craft them into a more consistent unit around superstar Anthony Davis.
The Pelicans could go after a four-year college contributor or free-falling underclassman with this pick, but the truth is that most of the roster help is going to have to come from free agency or via trade. This could be a spot to select a raw foreign prospect who can develop in another league, only to join Davis once he has taken his rightful spot at the top of the NBA.
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Eric Freeman is a writer for Ball Don’t Lie on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter!
