Going Deep: Unreliable Red Zone Receivers
The flip side of the wide receivers who dominated in the red zone in 2014 are those who could not have found the end zone even if led there by the most experienced cicerone. For some of these hapless receivers, their red-zone impotence was just a blip on an otherwise solid career. For others, it represented the latest in a long history of red-zone failure. Clues to how these receivers will fare in 2015 can be found in either possibility.
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Of wide receivers with at least five red-zone targets in 2014, 45 failed to convert 20% of those looks. Of all surprising names on that list, Demaryius Thomas might be the most shocking simply because he did not have the built in quarterback excuse so many of the other big names possessed.
Hobbled as he may have been, Peyton Manning was still one of the best quarterbacks in the league last year, and Thomas could only haul in six of the 39 passes Manning threw his way in the red zone. Emmanuel Sanders, who is four inches shorter and 43 pounds lighter, converted 30% of his red-zone looks last season, and Julius Thomas converted 60% of his chances.
The good news is this is likely just a one-year dip for Thomas. He converted 32% of his red-zone targets the first two years Manning was in Denver, and he has the athletic profile of a player who should have a well above-average conversion rate.
The bad news is Thomas is very unlikely to lead the league in red-zone targets again. If he hopes to remain among the elite touchdowns scorers at the position, he will have to become much more efficient in the red zone. He can certainly do that, but a fourth straight season of double-digit touchdowns for Thomas is less likely than it might appear.
A name which some may be shocked to see on this list is Andre Johnson, but this list is exactly where he belongs. The clear alpha receiver in Houston over the last decade, Johnson saw at least 10 red-zone targets in nine of the 12 years he was with the Texans including five seasons with more than 15 and three with more than 20. Despite all of those opportunities, Johnson has never once reached double-digit touchdowns in a single season, and he only has one year with nine.
Johnson, though, has a built in excuse for his career 22% red-zone conversion rate – which is the rate Antonio Brown and his 5-10, 180-pound frame managed last season. The quarterbacks the Texans paired with Johnson throughout his career have been simply atrocious. The six quarterbacks Andre Johnson has caught touchdown passes from in his career are David Carr, Tony Banks, Sage Rosenfels, Matt Schaub, Case Keenum and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Not even the Raiders are jealous of that list.
Regardless of quarterback play, it is concerning Johnson has managed a better than 17% conversion rate once in the last four years. Andrew Luck can certainly help, but how much growth can be expected from a receiver who will be 34-years-old when the season begins? Projections of eight or more touchdowns for Johnson are very aggressive. A repeat of Reggie Wayne’s five-touchdown performance in 2012 is a more likely outcome.
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