Strike Zone: Projecting Second-Half Saves
Today’s column will be a little different than usual. I wanted to look at each team’s closing situations with 90 games to go and trade season almost upon us. There are some notes included with the column as well, but each team section is solely a glance at the saves mix.
American League Closers
Baltimore: Zach Britton has demonstrated that last year was no fluke, as he’s remained one of baseball’s very best closers in his second year in the role. The Orioles added Andrew Miller to pitch in front of Britton last summer, giving up Eduardo Rodriguez to acquire him from Boston. There’s not going to be another Miller available next month, but a lefty setup man better than Brian Matusz wouldn’t hurt.
Boston: The Red Sox need another setup man if they fancy themselves contenders. Right now, it seems more likely that they’ll be sellers, which would put Koji Uehara in play. The Red Sox could give Junichi Tazawa a chance to close if the event of an Uehara trade. One long shot possibility is that Joe Kelly is in the pen at that point and is handed the ninth. My guess is that they keep Uehara; he probably wouldn’t bring very much in return because of his durability issues and his $9 million salary in 2016.
Chicago: The White Sox could sell Jeff Samardzija, Alexei Ramirez and others if the team continues to disappoint, but it’s highly unlikely that they’ll move David Robertson in the first season of his four-year contract.
Cleveland: Cody Allen has overcome his early season woes with a dominant run of late. The Indians aren’t where they’d like to be in the standings, but it’s hard to see them either trading Allen or trading for someone to close ahead of him.
Detroit: As always, the Tigers are in the market for bullpen help. They don’t need to land a replacement for Joakim Soria, but given their dearth of quality prospects, it might be easier for them to take on the salary of an expensive closer, such as Jonathan Papelbon, than it would be to land a quality setup man. Both Soria and Joe Nathan are free agents this winter, making Papelbon’s $13 million salary next year less scary. Aroldis Chapman and Uehara might also be possibilities here, though it’s hard to say what they’d give up for Chapman. Really, though, what the Tigers need most is a righty and a lefty to pitch in front of Soria.
Houston: The Astros seem pretty well set here. Even the two of their seven relievers without sterling ERAs have strong peripherals. Closer Luke Gregerson is one of those two, with his 4.00 ERA, but if he’s going to get replaced, I think it’s more likely to be by Josh Fields than by any outside pickup. Then again, if the Astros think they see a potential bargain out there, they do have the prospects and financial flexibility to strike.
Kansas City: This isn’t the Greg Holland of 2013 and 2014. His velocity is down 2-3 mph, and he’s walking batters at twice the rate of last year. Still, he’s getting plenty of swings and misses anyway, and it continues to very difficult to homer off him. I’d say he remains a strong bet to get 20 saves the rest of the way. Sure, Wade Davis is the better pitcher right now, but since his role is just as important as Holland’s, there’s no reason to make a switch.
Los Angeles: The Angels will likely seek to add a lefty to aid the setup crew. Otherwise, they seem set in the pen.
Minnesota: A few months ago I thought this might be the year Glen Perkins would go. Now, though, it looks like the Twins will be buyers, not sellers. It’d take an extremely disappointing July to change that.
New York: The Yankees will seek to add to a pen that’s had to rely too much on Dellin Betances with Andrew Miller (forearm) on the DL. Really, they were relying on him too much while Miller was healthy. They hope to get Miller back around the All-Star break, and he could get some second-half save chances. Still, Betances will likely do most of the closing, which would provide him with a more manageable workload.
Oakland: While the A’s seem quite a bit better than their record, they’re almost certainly going to be sellers with the hole they’ve dug themselves in the AL West. Tyler Clippard is about as likely as anyone in the game to be traded within the next six weeks, probably to a team that would use him in a setup role. With Sean Doolittle (shoulder) ineligible to return until the end of July and iffy to make it back then, Evan Scribner could get a look in the closer’s role. At least, he’s pitched the best of the non-Clippard relievers. Edward Mujica has the experience, so if he’s pitching well enough, he’d probably be the choice in the ninth. But then if he’s really throwing that well, he’ll probably get traded in a waiver deal in August. Drew Pomeranz has great stuff from the left side and might be able to work his way into the mix. Ideally, R.J. Alvarez would be a factor, but his initial stints in the Oakland pen got ugly.
Seattle: It’s unclear whether the Mariners will be buyers or sellers, but they probably won’t do a whole lot to the bullpen. They’ve already shed much of their depth there by using Brandon Maurer, Yoervis Medina and Dominic Leone to fill holes elsewhere. That’s left them with just Carson Smith and Fernando Rodney in the saves picture. I still expect that manager Lloyd McClendon will go back to Rodney as the closer, though he’ll have very little rope. Smith seems like the better rest-of-season bet anyway.
Tampa Bay: This isn’t much of a closer-by-committee. I’m not sure what it is. At least, Kevin Cash isn’t choosing his closer based on matchups. Brad Boxberger earned saves on three straight days Thursday through Saturday after hardly sniffing the ninth for three weeks. The week before, Jake McGee earned three saves in four days. Then he pitched twice in a week, even though he’s remained excellent. Judging by how Cash used him in May, it seems he prefers Boxberger to close, now that Boxberger is over that little velocity drop and his triceps problem. With the Rays in the race in the AL East, they’ll probably stand pat and keep both relievers, though they could get a whole lot for McGee if they cashed him in.
Texas: The Rangers have had success with Shawn Tolleson in the closer’s role of late, and they’re grooming Keone Kela as their long-term closer, leaving Neftali Feliz’s future with the club up in the air. Feliz is due about $5 million in arbitration next year, so if anyone wants to take a chance on him in a trade, he should be very much available. Apart from that, I’m not sure the Rangers will do much. They’re currently in the race in the AL West, but they shouldn’t mortgage the future in an attempt to stay there. They’ll probably add a reliever, but I imagine it will be a lesser name and it might come via the waiver wire.
Toronto: The Jays’ lack of bullpen depth has been apparent since the offseason, and since the rest of the team is firing on all cylinders of late, it looks like ownership will grant management the budget room to add to the relief corps. Papelbon has been very popular name here. Clippard, Francisco Rodriguez, Brad Ziegler and Steve Cishek are some other names that could get bandied about. The Jays could stick with Brett Cecil in the ninth and instead build up their setup corps, but that’d seem to be the less likely scenario right now.
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