Offseason Low Down: Cowboys Fantasy Preview

Cowboys Year in Review

2014 Pass Attempts Rank: 31st (476)
2014 Rush Attempts Rank: 3rd (508)
2014 Total Offensive Plays Rank: 18th (1,014)
2014 Yards Per Play Rank: 3rd (6.1)

Projected Starting Lineup

QB: Tony Romo
RB: Joseph Randle
WR: Dez Bryant
WR: Terrance Williams
WR: Cole Beasley
TE: Jason Witten
LT: Tyron Smith
LG: La’El Collins
C: Travis Frederick
RG: Zack Martin
RT: Doug Free

Passing Game Outlook

Tony Romo was the most efficient quarterback in football last season, leading the NFL in completion rate (69.9), yards per pass attempt (8.5), passer rating (113.2), and percentage of TDs per attempt (7.8). While Romo’s play was terrific, context is necessary in that Romo’s team led the NFC in rushing and the NFL in time of possession, attempting the second fewest passes in the league and consistently putting Romo in favorable down-and-distance and game-flow circumstances rather than asking Romo to be the shootout winner he had to be in seasons past. While Romo has a solid group of weapons and will continue to be protected by the league’s premier line, run-game regression is likely in Dallas this season, and it’s fair to wonder how Romo will respond with more responsibility on his plate. He’ll be 35 1/2 years old when the season starts, and Romo’s body has failed him at times the past few years. At the same time, Romo’s fantasy ceiling would be enhanced by more pass attempts. His mid-seventh-round ADP does seem rich, although quarterbacks are commonly overdrafted in common leagues.

26-year-old Dez Bryant has ranked top six in fantasy receiver scoring in three straight years and was the overall WR4 last season despite finishing a somewhat disappointing 12th in targets at his position. Bryant probably isn’t repeating last year’s 16 touchdowns, but he has been an overwhelmingly dominant red-zone weapon throughout his career and annually will remain a good bet for double-digit scores. Although Bryant is already classified among the NFL’s “elite” wide receivers, I still don’t think we’ve seen his best season. A bump in passing-game usage resulting from likely run-game regression could facilitate Bryant hitting his peak in 2015.

Terrance Williams is James Jones 2.0. He is a pedestrian talent with good-enough size, good-enough speed, and enough sporadic playmaking potential to be assured of a starting job in a plus offense with plus quarterback play. Williams is a role player and will probably never be more, but he can be a WR4/5 fantasy asset based almost entirely on situation. Last season, Williams ranked 41st in receiver points despite finishing a lowly 65th in targets. The Cowboys simply rarely call pass plays where Williams is the first read. Still, Williams is a candidate to take a step forward if Dallas throws more. Maybe not to the extent that Williams becomes a steady WR3, but he should easily return his tenth-round ADP, especially in best-ball formats. He’s also capable of being a viable bye-week flex play in games where Dallas projects to air it out.

Cole Beasley is a sub-package slot receiver who stands 5-foot-8, 175. His passing-game usage grew late last year, as Beasley’s 20 targets over Dallas’ final three games — including playoffs — tied Jason Witten for the team lead during that stretch, and were seven more than Dez Bryant‘s 13. The Cowboys are planning on Beasley to be an impact player in the future, signing him this March to a four-year, $13.6 million contract with $7 million guaranteed. Beasley’s ceiling is capped by his limited stature and physical gifts, but he’s a safe bet to beat last year’s 37 catches and could push for 50-plus if Dallas passes more, necessitating increased three-receiver sets.

The percentages of snaps on which Jason Witten has had a blocking assignment over the past five years: 48.6 (2010), 46.1 (2011), 40.8 (2012), 43.6 (2013), 54.3 (2014). Last year’s Cowboys didn’t quite turn Witten into a sixth offensive lineman, but he did play a critical in-line role in their extreme-volume running game and suffered statistically, ranking 12th among tight ends in targets after finishing top six in each of the previous seven seasons. If you’re like me and think the Cowboys’ rushing attack is a virtual lock to take a post-DeMarco Murray step back, wait on tight ends and use a late-round pick on Witten. His ADP has plummeted into the late-11th round, and I think Witten has another top-eight fantasy tight end season left in the tank.

Running Game Outlook

From both metrics and game-film standpoints, Joseph Randle was a pedestrian prospect coming out of Okahoma State’s wide-open spread offense in 2013. He was a stiff-hipped, lunging, non-elusive runner who managed a 4.63 forty at 6-foot, 204 pounds before lasting until the middle of the fifth round. As PFF’s Pat Thorman has noted, Randle has struggled in all four NFL games where he’s handled double-digit carries, posting rushing lines of 13-37-0, 11-17-1, 19-65-0, and 14-26-0. Taking offensive steam engine DeMarco Murray off the field was understandably difficult for the 2014 Cowboys, but it’s worth noting that Randle earned all of four snaps and two touches in Dallas’ two playoff games. Randle did excel in a change-of-pace back role last regular season, averaging 6.73 YPC on 51 runs. The Cowboys’ offensive line is the best in the league, and beat writers are projecting Randle as Dallas’ lead back. Still, it should concern prospective fantasy drafters that the only indication Randle is actually good stems from a 51-carry sample versus defenses Murray had already hammered with volume. Randle’s fantasy ADP has soared into the early portion of round four, which is too rich for my personal taste.

The problem with Darren McFadden is no longer that he’s “injury prone.” The problem is that he isn’t effective. Whereas McFadden managed a 3.34 YPC average in Oakland the past three seasons, teammates Mike Goodson (6.31), Latavius Murray (5.17), Marcel Reece (4.56), and Rashad Jennings (4.50) all severely outperformed him behind the same offensive line. While landing in Dallas has sparked some intrigue among fantasy leaguers, McFadden in all likelihood will get beaten out by Joseph Randle or a running back the Cowboys add off the street in training camp. I would prefer taking a double-digit-round flier on McFadden over paying Randle’s skyrocketing price tag, but DMC’s average draft slot remains in the seventh round.

A 5-foot-8, 205-pound passing-down specialist with 4.47 wheels, Lance Dunbar was a popular sleeper in the fantasy community last offseason. While he did out-snap the now-ballyhooed Randle, Dunbar was only lightly sprinkled into the offense after managing 27 yards on 11 garbage-time runs during a Week 2 win at Tennessee. Ideally, Dunbar would be employed as a satellite-space back, mixing in for change-up carries and the occasional checkdown or screen. Cowboys beat writers have continued to talk up 25-year-old Dunbar as a potentially critical piece in the team’s 2015 offense. While Dunbar is unlikely to ever be employed as a lead NFL runner, it’s conceivable that his role in the offense will be more stable than Randle or McFadden’s. With an ADP of undrafted, Dunbar also presents the lowest-cost investment into Dallas’ backfield.

While the training-camp progress of both is worth monitoring, Dallas beat writers indicate Ryan Williams and Lache Seastrunk are long shots to make the 53. Williams was a premium talent coming out of Virginia Tech in 2011, but has been unable to overcome a rookie-year patellar tendon tear and experienced recurring knee swelling at OTAs. Seastrunk was a “flash” player on college film, but is essentially a smaller version of Bryce Brown. Seastrunk is being treated as a camp body after Williams (knee) and McFadden (hamstring) battled injuries this spring.

Vegas Win Total

The Cowboys’ Vegas Win Total is 9.5, tied with division-rival Philadelphia for the sixth-highest win projection in the league. Bear in mind Dallas is a team I thought would hover around .500 last season, when they proceeded to go 12-4. But I believe taking the over on Dallas’ 9.5 would be a sucker bet. This team’s 2014 success greatly hinged on its dominant, high-volume rushing attack, which will almost certainly regress with several unproven commodities vying for carries. The defense has added talent, but probably not to the extent that it’ll be better than league average. My guess is the Cowboys will find themselves in far more pass-driven shootouts than last season, and they could very well start slowly versus a schedule that begins with eight consecutive opponents with win totals of 8.5 or better, including the Eagles twice, Seahawks, and Patriots. I expect Dallas to be a fringe playoff team that ends up at eight or nine victories.

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