First Down: Peterson deserves top spot, Big Ben’s deception and sophomore WR sensations

Before I load up the family truckster and head to Illinois for a two-week preseason battery charge, below are fantasy spins on recent whispers from mini-camp, random thoughts and easy-to-read lists, several of them. For those who relish berating accessible writers, please throw your verbal barbs in the comments section.

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• The Purple Jesus’ resurrection is well underway. After a season-long suspension and lengthy standoff with Minnesota’s front office, Adrian Peterson is not only back in action, he’s extremely motivated to extend his career beyond 2015. Suffice it to say, he’s angry, a frightening prospect for defenses (65.5 career yards-after-contact percentage). It’s no wonder why many in the “expert” realm are pushing owners to invest a No. 1 overall pick in him, even in PPR formats.

Consider me one of them.

This fall could mark the future Hall of Famer’s finest season yet. Critics contend his advanced age (30) and general wear (2,359 career touches) are clear signs he’ll break down. Those concerns are reasonable, but Peterson is a rhinoceros of a runner when healthy, a once-in-a-generation back. Since entering the league in 2007, no running back has averaged more fantasy points per game.

During his illustrious career, the three-time All-Pro finished a season ranked as the top dog among RBs only once, but that feat may soon be duplicated. The Vikings sail into 2015 with sharpened axes. Teddy Bridgewater, who completed a rock solid 64.4 percent of his attempts his rookie year, is a rising star. His effectiveness should only improve with Mike Wallace, Charles Johnson and Kyle Rudolph to throw to. Additionally, the Vikings offensive line, which was the 13th-best in run-blocking last year according to Pro Football Focus, is formidable. And don’t get fixated on his age. Tiki Barber, Corey Dillon, Emmitt Smith, Walter Payton and Priest Holmes are just a few geriatric backs who stiff-armed Father Time at the same point in their respective careers.

Most promising, Peterson is expected to be Norv Turner’s engine, functioning as an all-purpose weapon. As the RB recently told the Star Tribune, he will be “more involved in the pass game, being out wide and presenting [himself] for a check-down.” Essentially, he will be an invaluable safety net for a young quarterback. His production could mirror what LaDainian Tomlinson achieved in Norval’s system from 2007-2008 (3,485 total yds, 30 TDs, 112 receptions), meaning he could shatter his previous season high in receptions (43) by some 15-20 catches. His consistency, money motivation and favorable situation are why I moved him ahead of Jamaal Charles. Come year’s end, his net worth could match that of “Jurassic World.”

Purple reign. Purple reign.

• To the cursory drafter, total points mean everything. These are the same people who shamelessly shove hot-dog stuffed crusts in their mouths without thinking about the physiological consequences. They look at a player’s final rank and assume steady production will follow.

Take, for instance, Ben Roethlisberger.

Pittsburgh’s gunslinger finished 2014 the No. 5 overall passer. An under-performing Steelers D combined with the stellar execution of Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant and Le’Veon Bell elevated him to new heights. Though highly commendable, his fantasy effectiveness was wildly unpredictable, fueling weekly “Start or not to start?” frustrations for his owners. Though he averaged 19.4 fantasy points per game in standard Yahoo leagues, Big Ben finished with less than 17 points in 10-of-16 contests. His back-to-back 6-TD eruptions against Indy and Baltimore Weeks 8-9 skewed the stats. Oh how averages can be deceiving.

What other fantasy ones (QB1-QB12, RB1-RB12, WR1-WR12) were erratic in 2014? Here are the kings of inconsistency/consistency at each position using Yahoo, non-PPR default scoring:

QBs (Games less than starter-average (QB1-QB12) 16.8 fantasy points): 1t) Matt Ryan (9, 56.3%), 1t) Ryan Tannehill (9, 56.3%), 3t) Ben Roethlisberger (8, 50.0%), 3t) Philip Rivers (8, 50.0%), 5t) Tom Brady (7, 43.8%), 5t) Eli Manning (7, 43.8%)

QB1s (Games with more than starter-average 16.8 fantasy points): 1) Andrew Luck (13, 81.3%), 2) Aaron Rodgers (12, 75.0%), 3) Tony Romo (11 (out of 15 gms), 73.3%), 4t) Peyton Manning (11, 68.7%), 4t) Drew Brees (11, 68.7%)

RB1s (Games less than starter-average (RB1-RB24) 12.2 fantasy points): 1t) LeSean McCoy (10, 62.5%), 1t) Jeremy Hill* (10, 62.5%), 3) Lamar Miller (9, 56.2%), 4) C.J. Anderson* (7, 50%), 5t) Le’Veon Bell (7, 43.2%), 5t) Justin Forsett (7, 43.2%)

***To be fair, Hill and Anderson didn’t start until midseason.

RB1s (Games with more than starter league-average 12.2 fantasy points): 1) DeMarco Murray (14, 87.5%), 2) Marshawn Lynch (11, 68.7%), 3t) Matt Forte (10, 62.5%), 3t) Eddie Lacy (10, 62.5%), 5) Arian Foster (8 (out of 13 gms) 61.5%)

WR1s (Games less than starter league-average (WR1-WR36) 10.3 fantasy points): 1) Calvin Johnson (7 (in 13 gms), 53.8%), 2) Jeremy Maclin (8, 50.0%), 3t) Mike Evans (7 (in 15 gms), 46.7%), 3t) Julio Jones (7 (in 15 gms), 46.7%), 3t) T.Y. Hilton (7 (in 15 gms), 46.7%)

WR1s (Games with more than starter league-average (WR1-WR36) 10.3 fantasy points):1) Demaryius Thomas (13, 81.2%), 2) Antonio Brown (12, 75.0%), 3) Odell Bekcham (9 (in 12 gms), 75.0%), 4) Randall Cobb (11, 68.7%), 5t) Dez Bryant (10, 62.5%), 5t) Jordy Nelson (10, 62.5%), 5t) Emmanuel Sanders (10, 62.5%), 5t) Alshon Jeffery (10, 62.5%)

Robinson is a Jag worth caging in the mid-to-late rounds. (AP) • Allen Robinson, John Brown and Davante Adams have reached fantasy ninja status. They’re nimble, crafty receivers hiding in the shadows who, if trusted, may soon embed a throwing star in the neck of your league rival.

Robinson’s environment is very appealing. He’s an oversized target, off an occasionally exciting rookie year, who could tuck inside the WR top-15 in targets. Cash burner, Justin Blackmon, is no longer on the team, Marqise Lee is already dealing with an injury and Allen Hurns is best suited for No. 2 work. That leaves Robinson, a tacky-handed 6-foot-3, 210-pound wideout, at the head of the Jags’ WR class. Last year, he quickly developed into Blake Bortles’ main man. Before a broken foot prematurely ended his season in Week 11, he snagged 48-of-49 catchable balls and ranked No. 32 in PPR settings from Weeks 2-10. Reportedly unstoppable in drills, particularly inside the red zone, he has 70-1100-7 upside. For Robinson to realize his potential, the Jags, who often bogged down once they crossed midfield last year, must improve their execution on the opponents’ side of the field. However, adding T.J. Yeldon and Julius Thomas and a full offseason for Bortles should help.

In the desert, Brown could transform into a statistical haboob in 2015. Bruce Arians has outwardly professed his adoration for the kid repeatedly praising the WR’s advancements this past offseason. Carson Palmer has also joined the love fest. The Red Baron predicted “huge things” from the Pittsburg State product. Brown was spectacular in spurts his rookie season. His final tally (48-696-5 in 16 games) didn’t light the world on fire, but when Palmer was on the field, he was highly useful. From Weeks 6-10, he was the 29th-best wide receiver in the virtual game. This spring, Brown tacked on 10 pounds of upper-body bulk to improve his execution against the press, an area he posted an already stellar 75-percent success rate in last year. That matched with Palmer’s return, Larry Fitzgerald’s permanent move to the slot and Arians’ design to feature more no-huddle will have the Cardinal chirping loudly. A top-24 effort is conceivable.

Adams is another young receiver with stud potential. Compared to Robinson and Brown his breakout path is a bit more complicated. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb are Aaron Rodgers’ fancy. The dynamic duo accounted for 52.4 percent of the Packers’ targets last year. However, if either is felled by a significant injury, Adams would surely activate salivary glands across Fantasyland. Recall as a rookie, the Fresno St. product was sporadically useful, evident in performances against Miami, New Orleans and New England. His rangy size, leaping ability and adjustment skills are outstanding, attributes which could lead to a workload increase, particularly inside the red zone. Rodgers’ “humungous upside” and “going to be a star” comments about Adams feel spot on, especially after Mike McCarthy declared the sophomore MVP of Green Bay OTAs.

• Eli Manning may be talking up Rueben Randle, but the WR offers excitement equivalent to a Donald Trump presidency. His quarterback’s “great, dominant receiver” comments have people back on the bandwagon, however, I’m not buying. Admittedly, he was serviceable at times last season setting career bests in receptions (71) and yards (938). What dragged him down was the lack of touchdowns (three).

As impressive and committed as Randle has been, it’s difficult to predict a gigantic leap in production. Odell Beckham is undoubtedly Eli’s weapon of choice. OBJ’s stake in the offense combined with Shane Vereen’s arrival and Victor Cruz returning arrows to continued disappointment for the wide receiver. Another 127 targets are very unlikely. Also keep in mind in 2014, Randle cashed six on only 2-of-12 end-zone targets and tallied an abhorrent 23.8 catch percentage on passes beyond 20 yards. And many of those spoiled opportunities came against favorable coverage. Beckham was double-teamed 67.9 percent of the time. A final line around 60-65 receptions, 850-900 yards and 3-5 TDs feels right. Don’t believe the post-hype.

Big numbers can come in small packages. That's certainly the case for Forsett in '15. (Getty)

QUICK HITTERS

• Roddy White believes the Falcons, under new OC Kyle Shanahan, will pound the pigskin more often this year than last. My already unhealthy obsession with Tevin Coleman didn’t need this (Read my scouting report here). In 2014, Atlanta RBs ranked in the league’s bottom half in touches per game gripping the rock 27.3 times per contest. If that number surpasses 30 this fall, a weighty chance, and Coleman distances himself from Devonta Freeman, the rookie should crack the RB top-20. His prior execution in a zone-blocking scheme at Indiana, sharp vision, explosiveness and versatility lend encouragement. And you have to love the Falcons’ vertical attack and favorable schedule (fourth-easiest for RBs). Keep close tabs on his progress.

• Straight from the horse’s mouth, C.J. Anderson will enter Broncos training camp atop the depth chart according to Gary Kubiak. Denver’s new head honcho praised the work ethic and overall efforts of Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman, but reiterated the incumbent has the look of a three-down back, citing his knack for protection and receiving. The admission should calm nerves for those who believe Anderson is a strong bust candidate. His well-rounded contributions and one-cut ability mesh ideally with Kubiak’s zone-blocking scheme. A top-three RB over last season’s second half, Anderson, who notched the fourth-best elusive rating among eligible rushers in ’14, is primed for a RB1 return in the Broncos’ more balanced attack. Peyton Manning is still running the show after all. Take advantage of the skittish in Round 2 (21.2 ADP).

• Another summer, another round of RB hyperbole in Jacksonville. Last year, Toby Gerhart wooed investors with promises of workload riches. Sadly, he finished No. 55 in RB total points tallying an ‘exhaustive’ 9.0 touches per game. Now the buzz builds for rookie T.J. Yeldon. As Adam Caplan recently noted, several insiders are convinced the ‘Bama product will emerge a three-down horse. Whether he will be more Eddie Lacy than Trent Richardson is unknown, but, to be fair, he’s a nifty, multidimensional rusher who excels in pass protection. Still, the Jags were the league’s worst red-zone team last season crossing the 20 on a chuckle-worthy 8.5 percent of logged plays. Also worrisome, the offensive line, which is clearly a work in progress, was the eighth-worst run-blocking unit per PFF. As a result, Jacksonville’s run success rate percentage ranked No. 27. And then there’s the Jags’ leaky defense. Unless substantial progress is made in that department, Yeldon’s supposedly massive touch total will be curtailed. The St. Louis Cardinals are more trustworthy. At his RB2-level ADP (49.2), he’s already overvalued.

• Darren McFadden reportedly survived mini-camp without suffering an injury. Start hoarding imperishables. The end is near.

• All-Rodney Dangerfield QB All-Stars (Best bargains with 100-plus ADP): 1) Teddy Bridgewater (128.1 ADP), 2) Carson Palmer (135.2), 3) Jay Cutler (127.8), 4) Sam Bradford (118.8), 5) RG3 (126.6)

• All-Rodney Dangerfield RB All-Stars: 1) Ameer Abdullah (114.8), 2) Ryan Mathews (124.6), 3) David Cobb (125.7) 4) Duke Johnson (125.3), 5) Jay Ajayi (126.5)

• All-Rodney Dangerfield WR All-Stars: 1) Allen Robinson (111.6), 2) Charles Johnson (109.7), 3) Anquan Boldin (120.7), 4) Nelson Agholor (120.6), 5) Kenny Stills (128.6)

• All-Rodney Dangerfield TE All-Stars: 1) Delanie Walker (123.8), 2) Josh Hill (122.4), 3) Coby Fleener (126.1), 4) Larry Donnell (127.2), 5) Kyle Rudolph (133.4)

• Most underrated player regardless of ADP/position: Justin Forsett (39.2). He’s a poor man’s Forte in Marc Trestman’s offense. It’s entirely conceivable he totals 1,400-1,600 combined yards with 70-plus receptions and 7-9 TDs this fall.

• All-Trent Richardson Rejects (Players I’m avoiding at current ADPs): 1) LeSean McCoy (13.8), 2) DeMarco Murray (11.3), 3) Rob Gronkowski (8.1), 4) Alfred Morris (27.9), 5t) Carlos Hyde (32.9), 5t) Sammy Watkins (46.8)

• Updated top-10 rookie performers (in order): 1) Melvin Gordon, 2) Amari Cooper, 3) Todd Gurley, 4) Tevin Coleman, 5) Ameer Abdullah 6) Nelson Agholor, 7) Kevin White, 8) David Cobb, 9) Jameis Winston, 10) Duke Johnson

• Top-five Shocker Specials (140-plus ADP): 1) Matt Jones (151.6), 2) Davante Adams (140.3), 3) Steve Johnson (163.3), 4) Austin Seferian-Jenkins (160.9), 5t) Jimmy Garoppolo (largely undrafted) 5t) Josh Huff (largely undrafted)

• Bank Breakers (Guys I’ll overpay/reach for besides Forsett): 1) Tevin Coleman, 2) Andrew Luck, 3) Travis Kelce, 4) Andre Ellington, 5) Martavis Bryant 6) Ameer Abdullah, 7) Latavius Murray, 8) Allen Robinson, 9) Brandin Cooks, 10) C.J. Spiller (PPR)