Saves and Steals: Betances Takes Over
Shortly after publishing last Wednesday, it was revealed that Andrew Miller was headed to the disabled list with a forearm strain. Reports on the severity of the injury have been positive, but you should still expect him to remain out through the All Star break. The Yankees are fortunate to have an equally dominant setup man to take his place. Unfortunately, the bullpen is shaky after Dellin Betances.
We’ve reached an equilibrium in league wide stolen base rate. For the fourth straight week, the success rate has been within a few decimal points of 69.7 percent. Billy Hamilton is now running away from the pack with 31 stolen bases. He swiped six last week despite just 20 plate appearances. Dee Gordon (22) is the only other rabbit with more than 20 swipes. Last week, I recommended Billy Burns against some lousy catchers. He stole three bags. Hang onto him, he’s in the midst of a series versus Derek Norris. Remember what the Royals did to Norris?
Tier 1: Elite (5)
Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds
Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
David Robertson, Chicago White Sox
Dellin Betances, New York Yankees
Craig Kimbrel, San Diego Padres
Jansen allowed his first run of the season along with his second, third, and fourth hits. He’s yet to walk a batter. The run came via solo shot and resulted in a blown save. Luckily for Jansen, he picked up a vulture win. He recorded six strikeouts in his three appearances.
The big news of the week was the injury to Miller. Betances converted a save in his only outing. He has a 0.27 ERA with a 1.16 FIP, 14.85 K/9, and 4.05 BB/9. Yeah, he’ll do fine.
I keep expecting Kimbrel to go on a month long reign of terror, but he keeps coughing up a run every 10 days or so. The latest “debacle” was last night. He took the loss after allowing a run on two walks and a hit. Kimbrel has trimmed his way to a 3.81 ERA. His 2.59 xFIP looks like vintage Kimbrel. As I often recommend, try plucking him away from a tired owner.
Tier 2: The Upside Crowd (4)
Zach Britton, Baltimore Orioles
Trevor Rosenthal, Kevin Siegrist, St. Louis Cardinals
Jeurys Familia, New York Mets
Greg Holland, Kansas City Royals
Rosenthal earned two saves early in the week, but now he’s temporarily sidelined with stiffness and/or soreness. The reports vary. In any event, he’s expected to return soon. In the interim, Kevin Siegrist has assumed ninth inning duties. The southpaw has reverse platoon splits in his career. This season, he’s pitched to a 1.52 ERA with 12.13 K/9 and 3.34 BB/9. If Rosenthal requires a trip to the disabled list, Siegrist would be considered a Tier 4 closer.
The Mets continue to use Familia for more than one inning as a means of extending their fringy bullpen. Familia appeared four times and notched a win, two saves, and a blown save in 4.2 innings. He blew his most recent outing by allowing a solo home run. Bobby Parnell locked down a five out save last night while Familia rested. Don’t worry, Parnell is barely scrapping 92 mph, and he was pounded during his rehab assignments. I doubt he’ll even remain in the majors for the rest of the season let alone challenge Familia.
Holland appeared once in a non-save situation. He gave up three runs, four hits, and a walk without recording an out. He created a save opportunity for Wade Davis. The setup man shut the door with three consecutive outs. Holland’s fastball velocity remains around 93 mph. I’m becoming increasingly convinced that he’s still not healthy. The Royals may be sitting atop the AL Central, but they can ill afford to hand away games in the ninth inning.
Tier 3: The Mid-Tier (10)
Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies
Glen Perkins, Minnesota Twins
Cody Allen, Cleveland Indians
Drew Storen, Washington Nationals
Jason Grilli, Atlanta Braves
Koji Uehara, Boston Red Sox
Joakim Soria Detroit Tigers
Huston Street, Los Angeles Angels
A.J. Ramos, Miami Marlins
Francisco Rodriguez, Milwaukee Brewers
The Blue Jays are reportedly interested in Papelbon. And they should be, their bullpen could use a couple reinforcements. Unfortunately, the club has to address multiple issues. They might be better off using their limited resources to acquire a starting pitcher. Papelbon took the loss in his only appearance of the week. It was a rare multi-inning outing.
Perkins remains the saves leader with 22. Rosenthal and Mark Melancon are nipping at his heels. The Twins bullpen is quite lousy aside from Perkins. He picked up a save in his only outing.
Allen has held opponents scoreless since May 24. He’s also kept the hits and walks under control in recent weeks. The result is exactly what we expected entering the season. The Indians are slowly warming up. Allen should receive more save opportunities soon.
Storen and Uehara combined to allow a handful of runs in non-save situations last night. Neither hiccup should affect their job security, but they do serve to remind fantasy owners that these aren’t the most reliable relievers. Soria also coughed up a solo home run in his only appearance. He’s allowed three home runs in his last seven outings.
Street was busy with three saves in four appearances. He’s a trustworthy reliever when healthy, but he lacks the elite components of today’s best hurlers. Ramos is a better pitcher…for now. He’s struggled with command in the past. So long as he controls his walk rate, he should hold Carter Capps at bay.
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