Did Michigan end Kyle Busch’s Chase hopes?
Kyle Busch had a top-10 car at Michigan on Sunday. He finished 43rd.
Busch was running near the front of the field after a lap 52 restart when he hit the wall off of turn four. His car bobbled and as he corrected, it smashed into the wall.
The restart was immediately after a red flag for rain. Was a slick track to blame? Possibly. Race leader Kevin Harvick said it was raining when the field took the green flag and Busch’s crash came on the first green flag lap after the restart.
It was the first time the field had come through turn four at speed since the track was deemed raceable. And look at how low Busch was compared to the cars ahead of him.
Busch missed the first 11 races of the season after breaking a leg and foot in an Xfinity Series crash at Daytona in February. When he returned, NASCAR gave him a waiver for the Chase, provided he made the top 30 in points by the end of the first 26 races.
To get to the top 30, we figured Busch needed to average a 15th-place finish in the 15 races before the Chase. Upon his return, Busch trailed then-30th place Tony Stewart by 179 points.
Now, after four races, Busch’s deficit to 30th is 173 points. He hasn’t made much progress at all.
Bad finishes have been to blame. He finished 36th at Dover, which is why he’s only made up six points despite two finishes inside the top 11. And if he’s got any shot of making the top 30, he can’t afford another sub-30 finish.
With 11 races to go before the Chase, Busch has to make up approximately 16 points per race on Justin Allgaier, the driver in 30th. Allgaier is averaging a 27th-place finish in 2015, which means that, without bonus points, Busch has to now finish 11th or higher to surpass Allgaier at their current points paces.
Is it impossible? No. But it’s highly improbable. Busch’s hopes of making the top 30 are currently hanging on by a thread. If he has another day like Sunday, they’re probably extinct.
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Nick Bromberg is the editor of From The Marbles on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter!
