What We Learned: Best Stanley Cup Final in recent memory?
(Hello, this is a feature that will run through the entire season and aims to recap the weekend’s events and boils those events down to one admittedly superficial fact or stupid opinion about each team. Feel free to complain about it.)
There is a lot of reason to praise the level of hockey seen over the five games of this year’s Stanley Cup Final. That’s mainly because there’s so little separating the two teams.
And this comes after two very good Conference Finals as well, which themselves were preceded by terminally boring opening rounds. Whattaya know: When good teams play each other, the results are entertaining. (Unless they’re playing deeply negative hockey.)
But more than that, we’ve seen little besides ugly Stanley Cup Finals over the last few years. Lopsided affairs like Rangers/Kings last season, and both of the previous two only went six games as well. (It’s hard to have any patience for people who allege a given six-game series was close; in such a series, the losing team won two games out of six, and that would be reason for panic in the regular season.) Even Bruins/Canucks in 2011, which was decided seven games, featured blowouts of 8-1, 4-0, 5-2, and 4-0 again.
Unlike the Final teams seen in in previous years, Chicago and Tampa are evenly matched in just about every department, which explains why no game has been decided by more than a goal, and why every one has been a nail-biter.
How even has this series been? Through five games, and judging by 5-on-5 hockey, every second of the series has been either tied or with the other team within a goal. In addition, the edge in shots goes to Tampa at plus-2, in attempts is plus-8 for Chicago, goals are dead even, high-quality chances are plus-4, and so on. This is hockey decided on the razor’s edge. And that’s what makes it so entertaining.
On the lower three lines, the closer to the bottom, the fighters the series. On the higher one, as it gets closer to the top, more time is being played with the game within a single goal. As you can see, this year’s series is by far the closest Cup Final we’ve seen in the last decade, and in comparison with most, it’s not even close.
Now, the thing is that you could probably also say that this might be a sign teams aren’t playing as aggressively as they potentially could, but what’s interesting is that this actually hasn’t been one of the bustiest Cup Finals in terms of shot attempts, high-quality chances, and goals in that time. It just feels like it.
Decidedly middle of the pack in terms of being high-event hockey, but the gap between this series and the ones in front of it tends to be pretty low. Meanwhile, there’s a huge drop between Nos. 7 and 8-10 across the board. Turns out the 2012 Cup Final (the Kings/Devils series) was extremely one-sided and slow simultaneously. Such was Los Angeles’s power at that time.
But that’s all over the course of the whole series. In any individual games, there really hasn’t been much to separate Chicago from Tampa even beyond the score. Shot attempts, high-quality chances, and goals have all be extremely close. And obviously that’s borne out by the eye test, as neither team has been able to really pin the other one down for too long, and even if they did, the situations quickly reversed themselves. Interestingly, even the most uneven game of the series (Game 1), still only came down to a handful of chances and a single goal.
Part of the reason for this is that the teams are, again, quite balanced. But also because the goaltenders have played so well. Corey Crawford’s save percentage at 5-on-5 in this series is .922 and he’s been great. Tampa’s combined save percentage in those same situations is .921. That is to say: One one-thousandth of a point is what has given Chicago the edge here. One shot in a thousand. It’s insane. And it helps Chicago that Bishop got hurt; his 5-on-5 sv% is .927, while Andrei Vasilevskiy’s is .889.
Both teams have also been very lucky that their opponents’ best players haven’t exerted greater influence on these games in general, because for all the “Jonathan Toews is clutch” talk, neither he nor Patrick Kane nor Steven Stamkos has done very much at all in these five games. To let things be decided by Cedric Paquette, Ryan Callahan, and Antoine Vermette is to rely on wholly untrustworthy paths to victory.
All of this tells us that, in all likelihood, luck is playing a major role in who wins and loses on any given night. For example, the luck was clearly on Chicago’s side in Game 5, given that it took Ben Bishop and Victor Hedman straight-up running into each other like a shortstop and left fielder losing a ball in the sun to gift Patrick Sharp his goal, and a Kris Versteeg-facilitated Antoine Vermette goal to seal it. And in Game 4 as well, because Vasilevskiy did not have a good outing, but wouldn’t have been in the game had Bishop not gotten hurt.
What happens tonight is obviously anyone’s guess, but the safe bet is that whoever wins — and it’s looking more like the answer is “Chicago” if Tampa keeps screwing up in the ways it did in Game 5 — will do so by more of these extremely thin margins.
What We Learned
Anaheim Ducks: Nate Thompson is out five to six months after getting surgery on two separate labral tears in his left shoulder. Puts him for a return around mid-October to November. That’s a tough bounce. He was great in the playoffs.
Arizona Coyotes: They let that nutbar Pawnee resident (whose rant at the recent city council meeting was as irrelevant to the point as it was idiotic) use a taser on the Glendale mayor. For charity, apparently? Good use of Glendale’s ever-dwindling police services, that.
Boston Bruins: Tarde Hamilnton! He’s only really great instead of “the best defenseman in the league!”
Buffalo Sabres: The Sabres might buy out good ol’ Cody Hodgson. They just signed him to a six-year deal in 2013. Hoo boy.
Calgary Flames: Joe Colborne’s dad made more than Joe Colborne last season. And he only has 19 fewer career NHL goals.
Carolina Hurricanes: One agent represents all four of Eric and Jordan Staal, Cam Ward, and Jeff Skinner. In a way, he has almost as much control over the Hurricanes as Ron Francis.
Chicago Blackhawks: But Steven Stamkos is a loser idiot. Headlines and story premises like this are great. Really good.
Colorado Avalanche: Greg Sherman has been named the Avs’ SVP of business and team operations. Bet he still has to do Starbucks runs for Roy and Sakic.
Columbus Blue Jackets: Real point of emphasis for the Blue Jackets this summer will be improving the blue line, but the options on the UFA market are, shall we say, quite narrow. Would they offer sheet Dougie Hamilton?
Dallas Stars: Dave Strader as the Stars’ new play-by-play guy means it might be a good idea to watch more Stars games soon.
Detroit Red Wings: The Wings have basically no choice but to retain Stephen Weiss but he’s probably going to be bad again.
Edmonton Oilers: Rumor is the Oilers might trade the No. 16 pick. To the Rangers. For Cam Talbot. That seems doubtful.
Florida Panthers: Rocco Grimaldi recently completed his degree. One presumes his major was Nonsense Moralizing, which is a big program at North Dakota.
Los Angeles Kings: Kings miss the playoffs, Monarchs win the Calder Cup. Can this team take it easy with the trophy-winning for like five minutes?
Minnesota Wild: Two editions of the Vanek Bowl in next year’s preseason. How did we get so lucky?
Montreal Canadiens: In no way should anyone consider Montreal to have “one of the NHL’s deepest blue lines.” They have a great top four (Subban, Petry, Gilbert, Markov), and the rest: Meh.
Nashville Predators, America’s Favorite Hockey Team: The Preds want to extend 57-year-old Mike Ribeiro. I’m not sure why unless they also have a Fountain of Youth on hand.
New Jersey Devils: Patrik Elias will stick around with the Devils this season unless something changes. Like maybe Ray Shero realizes he shouldn’t pay Patrik Elias to play hockey any more.
New York Islanders: The Missouri Mavericks are now the ECHL affiliate of the New York Islanders. Richard Matvichuk is the coach! Wow!
New York Rangers: Several Rangers will play in a charity game in Norway. That includes Mats Zuccarello. Which seems like a crazy thing.
Ottawa Senators: Paul MacLean could be a new assistant for the Ducks this season. Gettin’ those compensatory picks, baby.
Philadelphia Flyers: The Flyers taking a run at Curtis Glencross would be hilariously not-good.
Pittsburgh Penguins: Well no one’s going to be able to accuse the Pens of being too old on defense next year.
San Jose Sharks: The Sharks are picking ninth in the upcoming draft. Picking Lawson Crouse there would be a real hoot.
St. Louis Blues: Letting Barret Jackman walk is a good first step to fixing what’s wrong with the Blues (because they had a lot of money tied up in mediocre players, that’s why).
Toronto Maple Leafs: The Leafs trading Phil Kessel to the Canadiens would be amazing.
Vancouver Canucks: Goalie Drama (The Vancouver Canucks Story).
Washington Capitals: Brooks Orpik: Totally worth it. Imagine that being your takeaway from this season. That Brooks Opik is worth $5.5 million.
Winnipeg Jets: The Jets don’t seem too intent on re-signing Jim Slater, probably because you can get a Jim Slater anywhere for dirt cheap.
Play of the Weekend
It came in a losing effort, but the pass from Jason Garrison and goal from Valtteri Filppula here were both awesome.
Gold Star Award
Kris Versteeg was flat-out amazing on Saturday night, and that in itself is amazing.
Minus of the Weekend
Hockey tip of the week: Don’t skate into each other if you’re on the same team.
Perfect HFBoards Trade Proposal of the Week
User “Captain Controversy” is creating it.
Toronto trades Phil Kessel and the 4th overall pick to Arizona for the 3rd overall pick and Chicago’s first round pick and a cap dump.
Signoff
It is, but see if you can follow me here: It……. isn’t.
Ryan Lambert is a Puck Daddy columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here.
