Going Deep: Wide Receiver TD Regression

Touchdowns are the holy grail of fantasy football. The memorable fantasy performances always involve multiple touchdowns, and it is very difficult for a fantasy asset to reach the upper echelons of their position without prolific touchdown numbers. Only five wide receivers have finished in the top five since 2010 without scoring double-digit touchdowns, and Calvin Johnson’s bizarre five-touchdown season in 2012 is the only top-five performance from a wide receiver with fewer than eight touchdowns over that span.

Considering how important touchdowns are to elite wide receivers, the next logical question is are some wide receivers better at scoring touchdowns than others? The short answer is yes. There have been 66 instances of a wide receiver scoring double-digit touchdowns in a single season since 2007. There are certainly some odd, one-off names like Laurent Robinson and Lance Moore in the list, but the expected names pop up frequently. Calvin Johnson shows up four times, Brandon Marshall shows up three, and Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas have both accomplished the feat each of the last three seasons.

The longer answer, however, is yes…sort of. Though the big names pop up frequently, Johnson has only once managed double-digit touchdowns in two straight seasons and has two five touchdown seasons over the last six years. Larry Fitzgerald had three straight big touchdowns seasons from 2007-2009, but he did not reach double digits again until 2013. Of the 36 wide receivers to post a double-digit receiving touchdown season from 2007-2013, 15 players managed to score 10 or more touchdowns in multiple seasons, and only 10 managed the feat in back-to-back seasons.

The most concerning fact when examining big touchdown scorers is how steep the falloff can be from one season to the next. Since 2007, receivers have on average seen a 44% decline in touchdown production following a double-digit touchdown season, and even reliable touchdown scorers like Jordy Nelson or A.J. Green have seen steep falloffs in touchdown production from year to year.

TL;DR version is scoring touchdowns is hard, and scoring a lot of touchdowns as a receiver over multiple years is even more difficult. Projecting a player for big touchdown numbers this season simply because they did it last year is a recipe for disaster. Each receiver is a different case, and each has a different likelihood of repeating the feat next season.

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Great Chance

The easiest wide receiver to project for 10-plus touchdowns in 2015 is Odell Beckham, who scored 12 touchdowns in as many games last year. The arguments for why Beckham will continue on as a fantasy monster litter the internet, so explaining why he could hit double-digit scores next season seems like a waste of time.

There are some reasons he could see his touchdown total fall his second time around the league. The first is his unsustainable conversion rate from inside the 10-yard line. Beckham scored a touchdown on six of his 10 targets inside the 10-yard line last season while the league conversion rate on passes inside the 10 was just 35%. Beckham’s ball skills should make him more effective than league average in scoring territory, but not that much better. Beckham also scored four touchdowns of 35 yards or more and two touchdowns of more than 60 yards in only 12 games. Again, Beckham’s abilities could lead to more long touchdowns than average, but that pace is unsustainable.

Beckham is the best bet of the group to repeat as a double-digit touchdown player, but his case is a great reminder to take nothing for granted.

Definitely, Maybe

Aside from Beckham, there are a lot of players who on paper look like great bets to continue their prolific touchdown numbers, but history shows several will fall short.

Mike Evans’ rookie seasons was built on the back of touchdowns. 40.6% of Evans standard fantasy points came via the touchdown last season, which was the sixth-highest mark among the top 100 wide receivers. Evans failed to reach five receptions in 10 games, be he managed to score the 12th most points per game among wide receivers by scoring in nine of his 15 contests.

With Vincent Jackson still around and the passing offense unlikely to take a big step forward even with Jameis Winston in town, Evans will need to continue scoring touchdowns to remain in the WR1 conversation. Luckily for Evans’ owners, scoring touchdowns is something he should continue to do.

Though Evans’ 40% red-zone conversion rate is high, he has the skill set and physique to be very efficient near the goal line. He also could get more chances in 2015. Though Winston is unlikely to dramatically improve on the 3,623 yards and 21 touchdowns Josh McCown and Mike Glennon combined for last season, he should turn the ball over less. Fewer interceptions matched with a better running game and a competent play caller could give Evans more than the 15 red-zone chances he saw in 2015.

There is not a lot of room for Mike Evans to make a huge jump in his sophomore year, but there are good signs he can at least match his touchdown numbers from last year.

Alshon Jeffery is an interesting case because we do not know what his target load will look like in 2015. With Brandon Marshall gone, there are 17 more red-zone targets to go around in Chicago’s receiving corps, but rookie WR Kevin White certainly has the skill set to claim the vast majority of those looks. New OC Adam Gase ran a high-volume passing attack which targeted its No. 1 receiver plenty in the red zone in Denver, but that was with Peyton Manning running the show. With Jay Cutler, could Gase adopt a more run-balanced approach?

Those questions are concerning, but the reality is Jeffery is a No. 1 receiver in what should be a decent offense. 20 red-zone targets are well within reach, and he should rebound with a few long touchdowns after not scoring any outside of 30 yards last season. Together, that should be enough to get him over the hump.

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