First Down: Latavius Murray, bright fantasy light in the Black Hole
As the summer heats up, Yahoo’s resident Noisemaker will offer his hot takes on specific players, trends and strategies much discussed in Fantasyland. Naturally, whatever he forecasts, the opposite is bound to occur. Feel free to offer your two cents in the comments section below.
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The Buzz: A source close to NFL insider Adam Caplan believes Oakland rusher Latavius Murray, a widely advertised value pick by many in the fantasy “expert” community, “has a chance at a huge year … he’s smart and physically a freak.” Unleashed down the stretch, the athletic marvel ranked No. 16 in Yahoo default leagues from Week 12 on. Overall, he finished second only to Justin Forsett in yards per carry among RBs (80-carry minimum) with 5.17. Considering fantasy fungus, Trent Richardson, and change-of-pace option Roy Helu are his only challengers for touches, the third-year RB could become the centerpiece in what should be a more conservative Raiders offense under Jack Del Rio and Bill Musgrave (67-33 pass-to-run split in ’14).
Why sinking coin in an Oakland RB is actually a good thing:
Imposing specimen. At 6-foot-2, 223-pounds, Murray is physically similar to Adrian Peterson, a player Musgrave is very familiar with. He’s titanium strong, equipped with reliable receiving hands, rarely fumbles and possesses tremendous wheels (4.38 40-yard dash). But despite his plus size, he isn’t the greatest tackle breaker. Last season, Murray gained just 35.6 percent of his yards after contact. Speed and anticipation are the name of his game. His 53.3 breakaway percentage ranked No. 1 among NFL RBs with 70 or more attempts. And, according to NFL.com’s Marc Sessler, his 121 speed score outpaced the game’s elites. Give him a crease and he’ll shoot through it, chewing up chunk yardage in the process. Equally important, he blows up the blitz, which means he won’t be supplanted by Helu on all third downs.
Murray isn’t without flaws. At times he runs too upright, which explains the underwhelming yards-after-contact production. A lower pad level and meaner streak would provide protection from lower-body injuries and assist him in generating tough yards. Though he has imperfections, the 25-year-old is an intoxicating product who stimulates the senses. Rewatch his highlight reel from last year, including his 90-yard TD sprint against KC, and you’ll completely agree.
Ramped up workload. With Darren McFadden now lowering bars in Dallas and Maurice Jones-Drew enjoying retirement, Murray should be the go-to-guy in Oakland. Helu presents formidable competition, but the ex-Redskin is best suited for rotational work on third/pass downs. And do we really need to mention the punchline that is Richardson? The fact he still collects a NFL paycheck over free agent Pierre Thomas is laughable.
All signs point to Murray totaling a significant number of touches, possibly topping 17-18 per game. Game flow and how well the Raiders defense performs will greatly influence his week-to-week total. Still, according to local reports, he’s the frontrunner for lead duties entering training camp. Under a regime committed to the run, Murray should be the driving force in a restructured offense.
Offensive line cohesiveness. Bluntly speaking, the Raiders’ offensive line was atrocious in run-blocking last fall. It ranked No. 30 in the category according to Pro Football Focus. But all hope isn’t lost. Consistency is key in creating a respectable unit. And Oakland has established exactly that choosing to retain last year’s personnel. If the group picks up where it left off late last season – they made strides down the stretch – it could open favorable run lanes for Murray. And keep in mind Musgrave’s scheme ranked top-three in rushing from 2011-2013. Much of that was due to Peterson’s godly abilities, but it shows the ground game will be a point of emphasis in O-town this year.
Amari Cooper. The hype machine has shifted to overdrive. The Raiders’ first-round pick in April’s draft has been showered in adulation this spring. His routes, soft hands and separation skills have wowed the coaching staff, leading many to believe he’ll be an instant star. Expectations are lofty, but Cooper could certainly reach them. He was nearly unstoppable at Alabama and owns the necessary tools to leave an indelible mark. He’s an enormous upgrade over Oakland’s WR1 from last year, James Jones. His presence along with TEs Mychal Rivera and Clive Walford’s efforts and Derek Carr’s development should help Murray see more under-manned boxes. Because of the Raiders’ passing proclivity last year, he faced defensive sets with five or more DBs 10 percent of the time. With Cooper in tow, that number could climb, a titillating prospect.
Fearless Forecast: Since 2003, only three Silver and Black backs – Michael Bush (2011), Darren McFadden (2010) and LaMont Jordan (2005) – finished inside the RB top-20 in fantasy points per game. Talk about a vicious cycle of suck. However, Murray owns the skills to inject new life in a vegetative run game. There are downsides, but if Oakland can be at least semi-competitive (5.5 over/under on wins per Vegas), he’s a probable top-20 rusher with a RB8-RB12 ceiling. At his 66.2 Yahoo ADP (RB20), Murray is medium-risk, high-reward rusher ideal for Zero RB theorists. If he plays all 16 games, a final output around 1,300 combined yards with 7-9 TDs is in the cards.
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