2015 Notre Dame and Group of Five over/under win total picks – CBSSports.com
Can Malik Zaire lead Notre Dame to a 10-win season in 2015? (USATSI)Picking over/under a win total is the perfect combination of season preview and betting. You must analyze a team’s schedule, look at the returning and incoming classes and predict a general pecking order for each conference. Below, I’ve made some picks for Notre Dame, BYU, Boise State and other teams from the Group of Five conferences who have a chance to make noise in 2015.
For the uninitiated, totals reflect regular season contests only (no conference title or bowl games) and lines are current at 5Dimes as of Thursday. (Plus-odds indicate a bettor earns more money back than wagered if the bet pays off, minus-odds the opposite; a bet at +120 earns $120 for every $100 wagered, a bet at -120 requires $120 wagered to win $100.)
[Previously: SEC West, SEC East, Pac-12 North, Pac-12 South]
Notre Dame, 9 wins (Over -120, Under -120)
While talking to both Chip Patterson and Jerry Hinnen about this very topic on a recent podcast, I learned that both of them were much higher on Notre Dame’s chances this season than I. And I get it. There’s a lot of talent on defense, and as long as the Irish don’t suffer the same kind of injuries they did last year, things should be better. It’s just that I have some major concerns as well, and the biggest one is at quarterback. Malik Zaire is obviously the starter going into 2015, but while he played well in the bowl win, he still doesn’t have a ton of experience, and should something go wrong — poor play or an injury — there isn’t an experienced starter named Everett Golson behind him anymore. Plus there’s a schedule that includes Texas, Georgia Tech, Clemson, USC and Stanford. Another major factor for my here, though, is just the history of this team under Brian Kelly. Yes, the Irish went 12-0 in the regular season in 2012, but that’s the only time they ever won more than nine games in the regular season under Kelly. So why should I take the over when the under is giving the same exact odds? UNDER 9 WINS
BYU, 8 wins (Over +170, Under -230)
Things were going quite well for BYU last season before Taysom Hill went down with an injury, and Hill is back in 2015, which might make that over with the +170 odds seem enticing. And it is, on the surface. When you dig deeper, however, and look at BYU’s schedule, the odds on the under suddenly make a lot more sense. BYU plays road games against Nebraska, UCLA, Michigan and Utah State this season, as well as Missouri at the “neutral” site of Kansas City. On the other side of the coin, Boise State, East Carolina and Cincinnati all make the trip to Provo. That’s eight difficult games for the Cougars, and you have to think they’re going to lose at least four of them. So while there’s a lot more value on the over, the under is the right pick (though I just wouldn’t bet either). UNDER 8 WINS
Cincinnati, 7 wins (Over -140, Under +100)
I feel like this is a perfect number for Cincinnati. Good job, bookmakers. No wonder you have your jobs. The Bearcats have a lot to replace on defense this season, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. They also have a very good quarterback in Gunner Kiel, and this is an offense that should continue to put up points. As for the schedule, road trips to Memphis, BYU, Houston and East Carolina won’t be easy, and the Bearcats also have tough games against Miami and UCF at home. If they can manage to split those games they’d have to go 5-1 in six games against Alabama A&M, Temple, Miami (OH), UConn, Tulsa and USF to reach the over. The problem is I believe the 5-1 is a lot more plausible than the 3-3 in the tougher games, and I just see 7-5 shining in bright lights right in front of my face. So if I was going to bet on this, I’d go for the plus value. UNDER 7 WINS
UCF, 7 wins (Over -120, Under -120)
The Knights earned a share of the American Conference title last year thanks to a 7-1 record, but this year only nine starters return as the Knights have to replace their top receivers, and most of their back seven on defense. All that being said, other than games against Stanford and South Carolina on the road, I don’t see a game on the schedule this team isn’t capable of winning. I don’t know if there’s another conference title in the offing for 2015, but eight wins isn’t all that crazy of an expectation for a team that’s won 31 games the last three seasons. OVER 7 WINS
Boise State, 9 wins (Over -150, Under +110)
I totally understand why Boise’s number would be set at nine wins. It’s Boise State, and everything about Boise State’s recent history as a football program makes nine wins a logical benchmark, especially when you consider last year’s 12-2 team has 16 starters returning. Of course, those starters don’t include Grant Hedrick or Jay Ajayi, and have you looked at the 2015 schedule? The Broncos open the season at home against Washington, and other than that, the home slate should be smooth sailing. But the road games? BYU, Virginia, Colorado State and Utah State aren’t so nice. While I think 9-3 is the most likely outcome here, I also believe that, with that schedule, 8-4 is more likely than 10-2, so go with the value. UNDER 9 WINS
Utah State, 8 wins (Over +125, Under -165)
Utah State ran through roughly 15 quarterbacks last season thanks to injury, and they still finished 10-4 thanks to just enough offense and a very strong defense. Well, a lot of key contributors on that defense won’t be back while most of the offense (including Chuckie Keeton) will be. The Aggies also have a rough start to the season with road trips to Utah, Washington and Fresno State in the first five games, and will play both Colorado State and Boise State at home before mid-October. After that it’s relatively smooth sailing (Air Force and BYU are the biggest obstacles remaining). I’ve been a big fan of Utah State in recent seasons, but with the losses on defense, and a rather unforgiving schedule, not even the return of Chuckie Keeton is enough to make me think a nine-win season is more likely than a seven-win campaign. UNDER 8 WINS
Colorado State, 7 wins (Over +110, Under -150)
Everything just seems primed for the under here. You had a Colorado State team that seemingly peaked last season at the right time thanks to upperclassmen like Garrett Grayson and Dee Hart, but both of them are gone, as is coach Jim McElwain. Rashard Higgins returns at receiver, and that’s nice, but a receiver needs somebody get him the ball. So, having said all that, why am I leaning toward the over? Well, not just because of the value, but because of Colorado State’s schedule. Utah State is the only truly difficult road game on the slate, and while games against Minnesota and Boise State won’t be easy, they’re home games. And the annual game against Colorado is at a neutral site. Colorado State won’t be as good a team as it was in 2014, but that doesn’t mean it can’t be 8-4. OVER 7 WINS
Marshall, 10 wins (Over -105, Under -135)
Marshall was a fun story last season as it threatened to go undefeated before losing to Western Kentucky late in the year and finishing 13-1. That was 2014, though, and that 10 wins number is just a tad too high to even consider the over here. It’s not that Marshall is going to be bad, because it should still be considered one of the favorites in Conference USA, but it’s just not going to be the same team after losing so many key players from last year (none more so than Rakeem Cato). So the under is the only thing that makes sense here risk wise, particularly since the over is only listed at -105. UNDER 10 WINS
Northern Illinois, 8 wins (Over +120, Under -160)
Hammer the over! Hammer it I tell you! Northern Illinois has won at least 10 games in every season since 2010, and it’s done so with three different head coaches and three different head coaches. Plus, when you look at the schedule, the only game where you see the definite loss is the road trip to Ohio State. That’s it. Yes, road games against Boston College and Toledo will be tough, but would you even be surprised if NIU won both of those games? I wouldn’t be. I don’t know if the Huskies are going to be as dominant in the MAC this season as they’re in a tough division with Toledo and Western Michigan, but plus odds for only a nine-win season? Thanks! OVER 8 WINS
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