June 12th MLB DFS Picks And Analysis – SportsGrid
June 11th MLB DFS Picks and Analysis
It’s another exciting night in MLB DFS as both DraftKings and FanDuel are offering some big prizes! The DraftKings Perfect Game has a grand prize of $50,000 and the FanDuel Grand Slam has a grand prize of $20,000 for just a $25 buy-in. Drew Dinkmeyer of the DailyRoto Daily Fantasy Rundown shares some picks and analysis to help get you started with your lineups.
Kyle Blanks (TEX) – Kyle Blanks returned from the disabled list yesterday and was immediately slotted into the cleanup spot against a LHP. With Adrian Beltre sidelined, it makes sense to feature Blanks against LHP. He’s posted an impressive .384 wOBA and .222 ISO against lefties since 2012 and he’s done much of that damage in tough hitting environments (SD, OAK). On Friday night, he’ll face a below average LHP in Tommy Milone and he’ll get to face him in Arlington which has historically inflated RH power 3-5 percent above the league average. Milone has allowed a .327 wOBA and 1.29 HR/9 to RHBs since 2012. Like Blanks, he’s played in pitcher friendly environments, so the difficult environment should punish his extreme fly ball (39.4 percent GB Rate) tendencies more harshly. Blanks is cheap around the industry and a strong entry point into the offense with the highest implied run total (4.8 runs). He’s a Top 20 hitter in our model and one of our favored outfield values.
Clayton Kershaw (LAD) – Kershaw appears to have put to rest any concerns over a slow start to the season. He’s allowed just two earned runs over his last three starts (ATL, @COL, STL) while striking out 28 and walking just three in 22 innings. Kershaw has maintained the bump in K Rate he set last season (31.9 percent last year, 31.4 percent this year) along with the elite GB Rate (52.3 percent). His BB Rate is up a little (5.9 percent vs. 4.6 percent last season) as is his hard hit rates allowed (29.6 percent vs. 24.3 percent). I draw the comparison not to dilute Kershaw’s work (last year was historic), instead to focus on subtle changes that were resulting in some of Kershaw’s “struggles” early on. His command was a bit off leading to a slightly elevated BB Rate and hard hit rate. He’s honed the command over the last three starts and is back to the best pitcher in baseball. He’ll face a Padres offense that ranks 15th in wRC+ against LHP. They’ve struck out in 22.5 percent of their plate appearances against lefties, which ranks inside the Top 10 in K Rate. Kershaw won’t have home field advantage but he’s getting a modest park bump and he’s opposed by a below average starter. Kershaw is the biggest favorite on the board (-200) and is in that territory where our research indicates a significantly better chance at obtaining a win. With a total of just six, the Padres implied run total is below 2.5 runs. Kershaw has the highest expected K Rate and the lowest expected runs allowed, which makes him a clear cut number one in our rankings.
Like what you see? We go way more in-depth at DailyRoto.com, with advice from Drew Dinkmeyer, Mike Leone, and others, that produced three Millionaire Maker winners in 2014.
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