Goal Line Stand: Silva's June Top 150

Organized Team Activities (OTAs) are wrapping up, and NFL minicamps will soon be in full swing. We are in an information-gathering stage of the offseason, trying to determine how coaching staffs envision players and their roles before training camp.

In addition to keeping tabs on re-draft Average Draft Positions (ADPs), I’ve participated in nearly 50 MFL10 best-ball drafts since the offseason began, and feel like I have a good handle on how the community as well as common drafters are valuing players for the 2015 season. Below are rough preliminary rankings with training camp about a month and a half away. If you’re interested in more extensive player writeups, check out my Pre-Draft Top 150 at this link. Some of the information is outdated — it was written before the draft — but there are a lot of useful numbers and observations in those Top 150 writeups.

And if you get into fantasy podcasts, check out my latest Fantasy Feast show (link here) with Ross Tucker. We discussed ten fantasy tidbits, facts, and stats that might give you an edge this year.

First-Round Picks

1. Le’Veon Bell — Ban may still be reduced on appeal. My 1.01 regardless.
2. Eddie Lacy — Touchdown-scoring machine in the NFC’s best offense.
3. Rob Gronkowski — The most dominant skill-position player in football.
4. Adrian Peterson — Will benefit from best Vikings offense since Favre.
5. Marshawn Lynch — Including playoffs, has played in 66 straight games.
6. Jamaal Charles — Looked out of gas late in 2014. Cuff with Knile Davis.
7. DeMarco Murray — Usage will drop, but still safe bet for RB1 numbers.
8. Julio Jones — Will ball hog as Kyle Shanahan‘s featured “X” receiver.
9. Dez Bryant — Passing-game volume will increase in Dallas this season.
10. Antonio Brown — Has caught at least five balls in 33 straight games.
11. Demaryius Thomas — Increased TD upside with Julius Thomas gone.
12. Arian Foster — The overall RB3 in fantasy points per game last year.

Second-Round Picks

13. Odell Beckham — Already a top-five WR pick after only 12 NFL games.
14. Calvin Johnson — 98-1,458-12 pace in the second half of last season.
15. C.J. Anderson — NFL-rushing title upside if he keeps job. (He should.)
16. Matt Forte — Loss of Trestman & sharp YPC dip are causes for concern.
17. Jeremy Hill — Will lose work to Gio, but TD ceiling as high as anyone’s.
18. A.J. Green — Recency bias has rendered Green a likely 2015 value pick.
19. Randall Cobb — He’s still only 24 years old. High-floor 2nd-round pick.
20. Jordy Nelson — Coming off hip surgery at age 30. Monitor his health.
21. LeSean McCoy — Usage locked in, but effectiveness & situation flags.
22. Andrew Luck — Another huge year coming with best weapons in NFL.
23. Alshon Jeffery — The Bears’ 1A receiver with Brandon Marshall gone.
24. Justin Forsett — Even if rushing stats regress, receptions should spike.

Third-Round Picks

25. Mark Ingram — The new centerpiece of New Orleans’ revised offense.
26. Frank Gore — Will see big upticks in catches & scoring chances on Colts.
27. Mike Evans — Big upgrades at QB and OC in Tampa Bay this offseason.
28. Melvin Gordon — Instant feature RB in good offense with improved OL.
29. T.Y. Hilton — Many mouths to feed, but the Luck-T.Y. bond is bankable.
30. DeAndre Hopkins — Projects as a target monster post-Andre Johnson.
31. Jimmy Graham — Volume will dip in Seattle. Still good bet for 10+ TDs.
32. Aaron Rodgers — Has been a top-2 fantasy QB in 6 of the last 7 seasons.
33. Jordan Matthews — Favorite to lead Chip Kelly‘s offense in receiving.
34. Andre Johnson — Can’t underestimate The Luck Effect. WR1 upside.
35. Brandin Cooks — 100-catch candidate as Saints new No. 1 receiver.
36. Lamar Miller — Highly-quality runner underrated by his own team.

Fourth-Round Picks

37. Jonathan Stewart — Major workhorse potential *if he stays healthy.*
38. Brandon Marshall — Should catch a ton of balls in Chan Gailey‘s spread.
39. Kelvin Benjamin — Great value last year. Slightly overvalued this year.
40. Alfred Morris — Not sexy, but always safe bet for top-15 RB production.
41. T.J. Yeldon — Will be Jags 3-down back, but low TD ceiling in bad offense.
42. C.J. Spiller — Pierre Thomas/Travaris Cadet combined for 83 catches in ’14.
43. Travis Kelce — Could give Graham a run to be fantasy’s No. 2 tight end.
44. Golden Tate — His 2014 production took a big hit with Calvin in lineup.
45. Emmanuel Sanders — Expects his own stats to dip in ball-control offense.
46. Russell Wilson — Last year’s No. 3 fantasy passer added Jimmy Graham.
47. LeGarrette Blount — Stars have aligned for Blount to be a premium value.
48. Latavius Murray — Scary raw & unproven, but opportunity at heavy usage.

Fifth-Round Picks

49. Carlos Hyde — Limited two-down back on potential dumpster-fire team.
50. Ameer Abdullah — Should emerge as Lions lead RB before midseason.
51. Andre Ellington — David Johnson is a threat to his receiving workload.
52. DeSean Jackson — WR2 fantasy pick with weekly WR1 scoring upside.
53. Allen Robinson — Sneaky bet to finish top-ten in NFL in targets this year.
54. Jeremy Maclin — From WR1 in Philly to low-ceiling WR2 with Alex Smith.
55. Julian Edelman — Good bet for 85-90 catches, but Brady suspension hurts.
56. Joseph Randle — Early favorite to open season as Cowboys lead runner.
57. Tevin Coleman — OROY sleeper in Kyle Shanahan‘s RB-friendly offense.
58. Sammy Watkins — Rough situation, but should still flirt with WR2 stats.
59. Jarvis Landry — Will vacuum targets, especially after DeVante Parker injury.
60. Todd Gurley — Coming off torn ACL in one of NFL’s most-putrid offenses.

Sixth-Round Picks

61. Peyton Manning — Top-6 fantasy QB in each of his last 15 healthy seasons.
62. Keenan Allen — Addition of Stevie Johnson could eat into Allen’s targets.
63. Greg Olsen — Devin Funchess more likely to hurt Olsen than Benjamin.
64. Rashad Jennings — Still the Giants best all-around running back at age 30.
65. Isaiah Crowell — Favorite for early-down carries in league-worst offense.
66. Nelson Agholor — Replacing Jeremy Maclin, who saw 143 targets in ’14.
67. Amari Cooper — The immediate centerpiece of Oakland’s passing game.
68. Vincent Jackson — Good bet to bounce back to stable WR2/3 production.
69. Martavis Bryant — Including playoffs, had 9 TDs in 11 games as rookie.
70. Giovani Bernard — Figures to handle 7-12 touches per game behind Hill.
71. Tre Mason — Could be very useful if Todd Gurley lands on reserve/PUP.
72. Anquan Boldin — Annually underrated WR3/4 pick who scores like a WR2.

Seventh-Round Picks

73. Martellus Bennett — Regression likely after leading all TEs in ’14 catches.
74. Steve Smith Sr. — Like his chances at an 80+ catch season with Trestman.
75. Brandon LaFell — Should hover around last year’s numbers (74-953-7).
76. Breshad Perriman — Arguably more upside than any rookie wide receiver.
77. Eric Decker — WR3/4 pick who should deliver fair share of WR2 weeks.
78. Ben Roethlisberger — Steelers will field one of NFL’s best offenses in ’15.
79. Roddy White — 34 in November, but likely to remain steady WR3 in PPR.
80. Charles Johnson — Will play the Irvin/V-Jax role in Norv Turner‘s offense.
81. Mike Wallace — Norv’s vertical stretcher a la Alvin Harper/Malcom Floyd.
82. Kevin White — Lots of mouths in Chicago; Jeffery, Martellus, Forte.
83. Torrey Smith — 49ers beat writers think he may struggle to hit 750 yards.
84. Antonio Gates — Still as good a bet as any TE for a weekly red-zone score.

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