UFC 188: Velasquez vs. Werdum Crystal Ball Predictions – FOXSports.com

On Saturday, the two biggest, baddest men on the planet will lock up in Mexico City to decide who will be the undisputed UFC heavyweight champion. Frankly, that is reason enough to tune in to this weekend’s big pay per view, but lucky for us, the UFC 188 card is filled with lots of other great match ups as well. 

Top 10 division contenders and rising prospects abound on the Mexico card, from Kelvin Gastelum, to Tecia Torres, Henry Cejudo, and Charles Rosa. Don’t forget the co-main event where top lightweights and bitter rivals Gilbert Melendez and Eddie Alvarez finally get to lay hands on one another!

Read on for our full break downs and picks, then let us know who you’ve got on Facebook and Twitter!

Cain Velasquez (13-1) vs. Fabricio Werdum (19-5-1)

Fans have waited for a long time to see this fight, originally scheduled for UFC 180 last November. Finally, we get to watch these two master grapplers with contrasting styles and developed striking face-off, and now it’s to unify the world heavyweight championship.

Werdum is one of the few top-level MMA fighters who is truly dangerous off his back. That alone makes this matchup fascinating as Velasquez’s strength is in his ability to take opponents down.

No one has been able to hande Velasquez once he gets on top, but can Werdum? Anything can happen, as we well learned five years ago when the Brazilian got knocked down with a punch but still managed to submit then undefeated Fedor Emelianenko from his back.

Dangerous as he is from his guard, Werdum should not concede Cain’s take downs, and would be well served to fight them. If he’s got the improved wrestling to at least make Velasquez pay a bit on the way in, the world class black belt could strike gold.

Werdum has power in his knees and a one timed well could hurt anyone in the world, including Cain. For his part, Velasquez will have to find a way to use his breakneck pace and pressure in a way that isn’t reckless and which doesn’t leave him too open to submissions, on the ground.

It won’t be enough for the Mexican-American to try and hustle and muscle his way out of dangerous spots on the ground against Werdum – he’ll want to make sure he doesn’t ever end up in those spots in the first place. On the feet, Werdum is much improved but leaves plenty of openings for the quicker and more fluid Velasquez to strike back.

The big question will be how Velasquez’s body and conditioning hold up. The champion is coming off of just the latest long lay-off due to injury of many throughout his career. 

He insists that he’s feeling fine, but no one will know for sure until he runs that engine in the cage on fight night. Velasquez has the division’s best conditioning but he’s also spent far less time near Mexico City adjusting to the thin air of the megapolis’ high altitude than Werdum has.

Velasquez originally thought he didn’t need to get to Mexico early at all, before the fight. He was dead wrong. 

Luckily his trainer Javier Mendez convinced him to come out a couple weeks early. The champ had better hope he’s adjusted well enough.

If he has, and if we see Cain at his full potential, this is his fight to lose. He’s the better striker, quicker man, and should be able to control whether the fight stays on the feet or goes to the ground.

Prediction: Velasquez by fourth round TKO

Gilbert Melendez (22-4) vs. Eddie Alvarez (25-4)

This is a hardcore fan’s dream fight. These two long time top lightweights have disliked one another for years. 

Now that they’re both in the UFC, we get to see who can back up their talk, best. Alvarez told us that he doesn’t think Melendez really wants to fight him, deep down.

We’re betting that neither man has a problem fighting the other. That said, this is anyone’s fight.

Alvarez has a slight power advantage in the striking department. However, Melendez is durable and throws his shots in dangerous volume, to the body and head.

Whoever gets the edge with striking on the feet will also be best poised to win the wrestling battle. Both men will be difficult to take down without having some fists put in their faces, first.

Alvarez may be the more dynamic fighter, here, but Melendez is slightly more well-rounded. Both can go the distance, however, so we wouldn’t be surprised if it ends up being close-fought for three straight rounds.

Prediction: Melendez by close decision or Alvarez by TKO

Kelvin Gastelum (11-1) vs. Nate Marquardt (36-14-2)

This fight has many unknowns. We last saw Gastelum fight Tyron Woodley close after failing to make welterweight.

In this fight, he’s back up to middleweight. Will Gastelum be energized from having to cut less weight, or simply slower and smaller?

Marquardt has already made his journey to welterweight and back up to middleweight – where he once fought for the world title – but “The Great” veteran isn’t at his peak, any longer.

if he were, we’d surely pick him with his superior size, conditioning and well-rounded game over the still green Gastelum. These days, however, it’s a tougher call to make.

Prediction: Marquardt by close decision

Yair Rodriguez (4-1) vs. Charles Rosa (10-1)

We don’t know much about the TUF winner Rodriguez, including his age. But, the relative newcomer showed he’s tough and conditioned in his official UFC debut, last November.

Perhaps “Pantera” has improved a great deal during the long lay-off since UFC 180. He’ll likely need to have in order to beat Rosa.

Rosa is one of the few MMA fighters who built an extensive amateur record in order to be ready to face the best as soon as he turned pro. Rosa was indeed ready from day one as a pro, and in the UFC.

He’s fought the better competition, of the two men in this matchup, and Rosa has looked good against them. Anything can happen in a fight, and Rodriguez will certainly be loathe to lose in front of the Mexico City crowd, but Rosa stands a great chance at winning this one.

Prediction: Rosa by third round stoppage

Tecia Torres (5-0) vs. Angela Hill (2-0)

These two women are always exciting to watch and have thus far demonstrated a level of skill far beyond their total number of official professional fights. Torres is one of the top contenders in the world at stawweight.

Hill is a sharp striker who fights takedowns with grit. At this point, the fight probably favors Torres because of her strong and persistant wrestling ability.

However, Hill is capable of surprising anyone with a straight punch or nasty elbow strike. With how rapidly each woman improves between fights, there’s really no telling what we should expect, except for a great fight.

Prediction: Torres by decision

Henry Cejudo (8-0) vs. Chico Camus (15-5)

Cejudo is the golden child of the flyweight division. The former Olympic wrestling gold medalist has only struggled on the scales thus far in the UFC.

In Camus, he faces another good fighter with much more MMA experience than he. If Cejudo has a good game plan that emphasizes take downs, he stands a good chance at pulling off a win, here, and moving into the top five at 125 pounds.

Camus is hoping that Cejudo falls in love with his solid boxing, however, which will give the Roufusport fighter a chance to shock Cejudo with his kickboxing. 

Prediction: Cejudo by decision

Efrain Escudero (23-9) vs. Drew Dober (15-6)

This fight could end in a flash or be a close-fought, grinding affair. Dober moves quickly and hits hard, in addition to having good wrestling.

Escudero is an excellent wrestler, however, and could very well decide where this fight is contested. Hard to go against the Mexican-American in Mexico City, especially when he has the wrestling advantage.

Prediction: Escudero by decision

Alejandro Perez (15-5) vs. Patrick Williams (7-4)

Like many newer UFC fighters from Latin America, we can’t really be sure of what Perez’s age is. What we do know is that the Mexican has a wealth of experience on regional circuits. 

He fought well and showed no sign of stage fright in his first UFC contest – a decision win – and should have used all the time since then to improve his skills Williams is a solid pro with a height advantage and who has likely faced stiffer competition, thus far. 

Prediction: Perez by decision

Francisco Trevino (12-0) vs. Johnny Case (20-4)

Trevino is an undefeated fighter who was managed and matched up well before entering the UFC. In his promotion fight, he handled himself well, however. 

Case has a lot more experience despite being eight years younger than Trevino. Case’s strong wrestling will give Trevino a tough test.

Prediction: Case by decision

Augusto Montano (15-1) vs. Cathal Pendred (16-2-1)

This is a prelim fight to keep an eye on. Both men are huge welterweights, and both have stopping power.

Montano is a KO and submission machine. Pendred is undefeated so far in the UFC.

If Pendred can show improved conditioning, he could have the edge. Otherwise, the Mexican prospect could take advantage of his hands dropping, late in the fight.

Prediction: Montano by upset decision

Gabriel Benetiz (17-4) vs. Clay Collard (14-5)

Tough fight to call, here, but Collard’s power punching and take down ability could spell victory over Benetiz.

Prediction: Collard by decision

Albert Tumenov (15-2) vs. Andrew Todhunter (7-0)

Todhunter took this fight on just eight days’ notice, and Tumenov is one of the best new welterweights in the UFC. As such, the American will have his hands full making weight, to say nothing of winning the fight.

That said, the former Army sniper Todhunter is mentally strong and a physical specimen. He’s capable of hurting Tumenov, early, and then getting him to the ground.

If he can, Todhunter could get an astoundingly impressive debut win. If not, Tumenov has to be considered the favorite to win a decision.

Prediction: We’ll take Todhunter with the upset first round TKO

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