Draft Preview: NBA Draft Ranks: SF
The small forward crop this season is good, but top-heavy and not very deep. There are at least five first-round prospects, with a chance for all five to go in the top twenty picks. It is an athletic group, and there is a lot of potential in the young players. As we get deeper in the draft, there aren’t many “true” small forward prospects, but a few players who can play the three or the four at the next level.
There are a couple of guys who should make an immediate impact, though how quickly they adjust to the speed and physical nature of the NBA will determine that in most cases. Click here for the PG draft ranks here and check out the SG ranks here.
The players are listed in order of where they will go in my mock draft, though it doesn’t necessarily reflect how I see these players ranked in ability and long-term NBA potential.
1. Justise Winslow, Freshman, Duke, 6’6½”, 222
Winslow, a key member of Duke’s National Championship team, could be one of the top two-way players in this draft. A very good athlete with an NBA-ready body, Winslow has shown some versatility on offense, with the ability to spot-up for long-range jumpers or attack the basket. While he shot over 40 percent from three-point range, his shot can be slow to develop, and he really needs time and space to get a good look; even then, he is a streaky shooter. Winslow is a good ballhandler, and though he can try and force his way to the basket to poor results, if he has some space, he gets to the basket quickly and finishes strong. He is very good in the open floor, whether running out on the wings, or pushing the ball himself on the break. Winslow is also an underrated passer, showing a nice feel for the game, and, generally, making smart decision with the ball. Defensively, Winslow can guard multiple positions, with the ability to contain players on the perimeter, or play a more physical game, forcing his man to try and lose him through multiple screens. He is a very good rebounder for his size; he had eight games of 10+ rebounds, and another four with 9 rebounds. Winslow uses his strength and leaping ability well to create space and get to the ball quickly, and though not always in position, he can be a factor on the offensive boards if not accounted for. I’m not sure Winslow will be a star at the NBA level, but he will be very good, and will help any team on both ends of the floor.
2. Stanley Johnson, Freshman, Arizona, 6’6½”, 242
Arizona’s leading scorer as a freshman, Johnson wasn’t very efficient, but the tools are there for him to make an impact in some way at the NBA level. Johnson is another young player with good athleticism and a strong body, and the ability to make an impact on both ends of the floor. He showed better than expected shooting from long-range, and though he shot just 37 percent, his ability to knock down open shots without hesitation was a big step for him. Johnson is a good ballhandler, and while he likes to attack the basket, he has trouble finishing at the rim, surprising for his strength. Instead of taking on rim protectors, he will settle for mid-range jumpers or lay-up attempts while being forced away from the basket. Like Winslow, Johnson is also very good in transition, with the ability to push the ball or run the wings. Johnson has the tools to be a good defender, though he had some bad lapses this past season. With his strength and athletic ability, he should be capable of guarding multiple positions at the next level. A likely lottery pick, Johnson has enough ability to make a quick impact, but his continued development will be the difference between being a star or a role player.
3. Kelly Oubre, Jr., Freshman, Kansas, 6’7″, 202
Oubre had some bright moments in his freshman year at Kansas, but he is less skilled, and less physically ready, than the two players above him on this list, to play in the NBA. He has a thin frame, but he is athletic and a good leaper. Oubre has good length, and his 7’2″+ wingspan can be disruptive when he is defending out on the perimeter. He moves well defensively, but he still needs to work on learning and developing the finer points of defending on the perimeter. His quickness and leaping ability allow him to help on the boards on both ends, even if he doesn’t have the needed strength. Oubre has some shooting ability, with a nice lefty stroke, though he needs to be more confident in the shot. Like Winslow and Johnson, Oubre is also at his best when trying to get to the rim. He isn’t a very good ballhandler, and can be a bit careless, but he has a nice first step, and if given some space, he gets to the basket quickly. His long strides also seem to throw defenders off, and he can get to the free throw line regularly. Those same strides also help him on the break, letting him get up the floor quickly and out in front of the defense. Oubre seemed hesitant at times this past season to be aggressive on offense, but the few games he was, he put up points quickly. He should be a lottery pick, but he’s still a couple of years away from making any kind of impact in the NBA.
4. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Sophomore, 6’7″, 211
Hollis-Jefferson may be one of the best defenders in this year’s draft, with the ability to guard three or four positions. He has good size, long arms, quick feet and good instincts, which combined allow him to disrupt shots and passes all over the floor. Hollis-Jefferson’s length also helps him on the boards on both ends of the floor. Though not particularly strong, he has a nice ability to maneuver through traffic to get in position for rebounds. It’s a good thing he is so good on the defensive end, because his offense can be very rough to watch at times. He isn’t much of a perimeter shooter, and his motion can be very awkward, though he has shown some improvement. Hollis-Jefferson will try to attack the basket, often from 15 feet in, and while not a very good ballhandler, he can find ways to get to the rim and finish strong. Most of his scoring attempts come in transition, where his limitations aren’t as significant when the defense isn’t set, or cuts to the basket off of guard penetration. Hollis-Jefferson should have a very good career as a role player and defensive stopper. His offense should improve in time, though I wouldn’t expect too much from him.
5. Sam Dekker, Wisconsin, Junior, 6’9″, 218
Dekker has great size for the small forward position, with good athleticism, as well as a strong and improving skill set. His play was a key part of Wisconsin getting to the NCAA Championship game, including a combined 50 points on 18 of 26 from the field against North Carolina and Arizona. Dekker knew his role well in the Badgers offense, and though it seemed to limit him in some ways, he was very good at finding holes in the defense to shoot. He is a good ballhandler for his size, and he is very smooth when looking to get to the basket. Dekker can score in many other ways, including posting up smaller and similar-sized defenders, and making perfectly timed cuts to the rim. His main weakness on offense is his perimeter shooting ability, though he did show more consistency from long-range in prior seasons. His size allows him to get clean looks, and his release leads to a rainbow-arcing shot which is tough to contest. Dekker does need to work on making his shooting motion more compact, especially when he spots up on the perimeter, though he has shown some ability to hit jumpers off the dribble. Defensively, Dekker does have some problems in isolation, though his length does help him contest shots and play passing lanes. He is much better as a team defender, as are most players who come out of Wisconsin. Dekker has the ability to rebound well on both ends of the floor, though getting stronger will help him. There’s a lot to like about Dekker’s game, and seeing how the spacing in the NBA helps him should be fun. He’ll be ready to help a team right away next season.
As mentioned above, the small forward group isn’t very deep this year, and the rest of this group are guys who played the power forward position at the college/International level, but they have the skill set and/or athletic ability to play and defend the small forward position; so, I am including these players in this post.
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