What We Learned: Do Lightning have right defensive plan?

(Hello, this is a feature that will run through the entire season and aims to recap the weekend’s events and boils those events down to one admittedly superficial fact or stupid opinion about each team. Feel free to complain about it.)

The decision made by Jon Cooper ahead of Game 2 was one that probably should have gotten more attention than it did. For just the 10th time in 22 games in this postseason, the Lightning went with the traditional hockey setup of 12 forwards and six defensemen. The other 12 times, he’s gone with 11 forwards and seven D.

The reasoning behind the move was obvious: Cooper felt that he’d seen enough of Chicago in Game 1 to know what they wanted to do, and to match that he slotted oft-scratched and much-talked-about rookie Jonathan Drouin — a high-test speedster who’s good on the puck and immensely talented — into the lineup at the expense of 21-year-old puck-moving D Nikita Nesterov.

And it appeared to work out perfectly well for the Lightning, who won a nervy 4-3 game to even the series, not just because of the W, but also because Drouin played pretty well in a limited role, all things considered. Certainly, he showed flashes of both why he was a No. 3 pick a few years back, and why Cooper has been reticent to slot him into the lineup with the stakes this high. In either event, it seems as though the less-favored traditional lineup construction might have given Tampa the edge.

It was, in fact, a pretty even game, with not much separating the two teams except that Chicago had a lot of territorial control and Tampa got the extra bounce to go into the net. Weird things keep happening in this series, like Cedric Paquette’s line outscoring Jonathan Toews, and Joel Quenneville needing to continually shuffle lines to alchemically brew up comeback attempts (one of which was already successful. But what’s been quite fascinating was the idea that Cooper is being or has been outcoached by anyone in these playoffs.

Cooper is exceptionally smart, and could already be one of the shrewdest bench bosses in the league. His roster may be loaded with good pieces, but it still has some clear flaws, and I’d advance the idea that he believes playing with 11-and-7 lineup is to his benefit most nights given what a 12-and-6 lineup looks like. Given that this is a results-based business, the data certainly bears that out; Tampa is 8-4 when using the unconventional method, and 5-5 after Saturday’s win with the more by-the-books approach. Of course, things get weird when you judge success by wins and losses, but the underlying numbers all seem to suggest that Tampa does indeed play better when it uses seven defensemen, and in just about every facet of the game.

It’s important to note there that they’re a sub-50 team in terms of possession in either scenario, but the pace of the game (which you can measure to some extent with shot attempts) changes very little. That is: Tampa is always going to play high-event hockey, but it seems to have a little more control of things when it’s only using 11 forwards. Indeed, while it still gets out-possessed, Cooper’s team controls shot quality pretty well overall, limiting the number of opponent shot attempts that get on net while boosting its own, and seeing basically no change in high-quality chances against while improving itself by almost half.

Goal-scoring rates improve, goals against drop, there are fewer penalties all around, and more draws for everyone, which may give Cooper the ability to get different personnel on the ice. Whether that plays into his hands more is up for debate, but given how smart he is, you’d have to say it can’t hurt.

Overall, the Lightning with seven D just seven to have a better handle on the game in general.

The ability to dominate high-quality chances, shots getting on goal per attempt, and goals all improve significantly, and while this is obviously just 10 games in one situation and 12 for the other (meaning variance is going to play a big role), that’s still more than 1,000 minutes of 5-on-5 hockey total and you can start to get a pretty good feel for how things are going overall in that time.

And indeed, if you go by the shot location data from War On Ice’s game pages, those differences are borne out again and again at both ends of the ice.

That’s not only a lot more chances around the net with seven D — and again, you have to keep in mind that they played two extra games with that roster setup — but it’s also a larger number of goals being scored there, and a larger percentage of shots coming from those high-quality areas. With six defensemen, a larger concentration comes from outside the “home plate” area, and it seems as though it’s more difficult to get to the net.

The opposite was true for the area around the Tampa crease instead. Opponents get fewer shots on goal — because more get blocked — and the Lightning seem to do a better job of keeping teams to the perimeter when they have an extra defenseman in the lineup. Interestingly, a higher number of goals come from lower-percentage areas with six D than seven as well, including those from outside beyond the faceoff dots. That says to me that teams get getting better looks from the outside even as they’re able to get closer to the net as well. It’s a worrisome trend.

The only area in which Tampa is markedly with six defensemen rather than seven is in drawing penalties — but there are an extra 1.2 penalties per 60 minutes to go around — and that could be worrisome for a different reason. Relying on power play goals and your penalty kill to win you a game might not be the best thing for a team trying to win a Cup because it puts a lot of faith into small windows of opportunity where there’s an increased chance of goalscoring one way or the other.

While Tampa scores 8.7 goals per 60 minutes of power play time (fourth among all playoff teams this year), it allows 6.8 per 60 when shorthanded, which is decidedly middle-of-the-pack at No. 8. Meanwhile, Chicago allows more on the PK (7.3, ranked ninth) and scores fewer with the man advantage (7.7, good for sixth) on a per-60 basis, but things can get so strange in these small time periods that those numbers could flip-flop in a single game.

It’s indisputable that clubs have more control over results at 5-on-5 than they do on special teams, and it also seems very likely that Tampa controls the game better at 5-on-5 when it has seven defensemen in the lineup. That may seem counterintuitive, but it’s worked for them so far.

What Cooper writes on his lineup card ahead of Game 3 will be fascinating for that reason: Does he go with the lineup that won him a game in Tampa or, given that he has less say in matchups as the road coach, does he go back to the style that’s brought him so much success already?

What We Learned

Anaheim Ducks: The Ducks can’t just go around all summer extending their guys who will be UFAs after 2015-16. They need to prioritize them, and it could make them vulnerable come July 2016. So: Do they have a one-year window in which they can be truly competitive? What does that mean for Bob Murray’s plans for next season?

Arizona Coyotes: Actually, they should make Mike Smith their backup goaltender.

Boston Bruins: The Bruins are apparently going to let Carl Soderberg walk. That seems like a great idea. Also great in this latest 30 Thoughts from the wonderful Elliotte Friedman: “[Milan Lucic] is a foundational player.” Hahaha oh boy.

Buffalo Sabres: You’d think that the Sabres would be really bummed if Jack Eichel went back to college for one more season before going pro, but you know who’d be really, really bummed? Every Hockey East coach who isn’t David Quinn.

Calgary Flames: This kid’s name is really “Louick?” Love his show on FX.

Carolina Hurricanes: Two home-and-homes with Washington and Pittsburgh highlight the Hurricanes’ preseason schedule. Man, we’re already announcing preseason schedules, huh?

Chicago: Hmm I wonder who was arguing for this just the other day?

Colorado Avalanche: The Avs are trying to sign Tyler Johnson’s older brother from his Swedish team. Might be insurance in case they end up having to trade Ryan O’Reilly. What a world.

Columbus Blue Jackets: Don’t hold your breath here, guys.

Dallas Stars: Imagine the Devils trading Cory Schneider for Kari Lehtonen. Imagine that happening. Good lord.

Detroit Red Wings: Hoo boy would this be a bad idea.

Edmonton Oilers: Seems Edmonton — GMed these days by Peter Chiarelli — is looking like a prime candidate to offer-sheet Dougie Hamilton. Boy would that start to solve a lot of their problems. Hamilton can get up to about $7.3 million before he costs the Oilers more than a first-round pick, a second, and a third. The good news for Boston is no one offer-sheets anyone in this league.

Florida Panthers: One thing is for sure: This past season, the Panthers were never wanting for information about how many goals they needed to score per minute.

Los Angeles Kings: The least of Dean Lombardi’s concerns will be whether he should re-sign Jarret Stoll. Because he shouldn’t and won’t.

Minnesota Wild: We’re all in agreement that the only way Mike Reilly doesn’t sign with the Wild is if one of the other GMs he’s talking to takes his family hostage, right?

Montreal Canadiens: PK Subban drives a Lambo. Gotta spend that money on something.

Nashville Predators, America’s Favorite Hockey Team: Well at least it’s not three years.

New Jersey Devils: This is a word of caution for any team, really: Hitting the UFA market this summer and hoping for a big find is probably a fool’s errand. But the Devils specifically need left wings, and if your best option is Erik Cole, maybe you just go without.

New York Islanders: The Islanders are building a new practice facility on Long Island which will probably be nicer than Nassau was on its best day.

New York Rangers: The latest assessment from Larry Brooks: The Rangers should trade Cam Talbot and Keith Yandle ($2.65 million cap hit because Arizona is picking up half his deal) for a “strong, grinding physical forward.” Hahaha give Columbus a call about David Clarkson, I guess.

Ottawa Senators: Matt O’Connor says he reads Ken Dryden’s “The Game” at the rink. It’s like uhh buddy how about, like, playing hockey? It’s like c’mon, am I right?!

Philadelphia Flyers: If you’re looking to address your immediate needs when you’re picking seventh in a draft, maybe you should, instead, not do that.

Pittsburgh Penguins: The Penguins “don’t see a place” in the lineup for Rob Scuderi. Who could have guessed this day would come when they signed a 34-year-old stay-at-home defenseman for four years? Who could have???

San Jose Sharks: The Sharks should undertake a “sensible approach” for the future, huh? Well, I see one major problem with that: Their GM.

St. Louis Blues: I’m sure the Blues have interns working around the clock to load an armored truck with cash for the coming Tarasenko contract.

Tampa Bay Lightning: … But what if, and hear me out on this, what if water is already blue?

Toronto Maple Leafs: Teams are wisely calling the Leafs to ask how much it would cost them to acquire Phil Kessel. “A lot” seems like a good jumping-off point.

Vancouver Canucks: Trade Lack!!!!

Washington Capitals: Eric Fehr had surgery on his elbow this week but he’ll be good to go for the start of next season. Well, y’know, “good” being a relative term.

Winnipeg Jets: The Jets are hosting a draft party — for $30! — and if you go, you’ll get to meet Michael Hutchinson before they trade him.

Play of the Weekend
All the work that went into Cedric Paquette’s opening goal on Saturday was just great. Nice goal all around, especially given who they scored it against (a certain Mr. J. Toews).

Gold Star Award

Chicago Blackhawks goalie Corey Crawford (50), left, blocks a shot by Tampa Bay Lightning right wing Nikita Kucherov (86), during the first period in Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup Final in Tampa, Fla., Wednesday, June 3, 2015. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

It feels like every game you can basically go, “[This different guy] is the best player on the Triplets line.” And in Game 2 it was Nikita Kucherov. What a weapon Cooper has at his disposal.

Minus of the Weekend