MLB Draft expert: Weak class; intriguing arms
Monday occasions baseball’s First-Year Player Draft, in which some of the best college and high school talents around will be selected by major-league organizations. To set the scene for all of that, Eye On Baseball recently chatted with Baseball Prospectus draft expert Chris Crawford.
Needless to say, this time of year is an ideal one to give Crawford a follow on Twitter (@CrawfordChrisV) or check out his contributions to Baseball Prospectus. Now let’s hear what he has to say about the 2015 draft …
Eye On Baseball: First, how would you rate the overall strength of this year’s class?
Chris Crawford: Unfortunately, it’s not a strong class, arguably the worst class in terms of quality at the top and quantity in the middle of any that I’ve covered. Its saving grace is that there’s some depth at shortstop for the first time in several years — there’s a strong chance that the top three picks will play there — and as always there’s some intriguing college arms that could move quickly through a system. Still, the lack of prep pitching and the volatility of the arms makes this a pretty bleak class, at least on paper.
EOB: Narrowing it down a bit, would you say that prep arms are the most glaring weakness of this class? If so, weakest you’ve seen in some time?
CC: I would say so, yes. Kolby Allard (San Clemente HS, Calif.) is the best of the group — a left-hander with three above-average to plus pitches with above-average command — but he’s 5’11” and was shut down in March with a back injury. Mike Nikorak (Stroudsburg HS, Penn.) is right behind him as a right-hander who has touched 97 mph and shown an above-average hook, but we haven’t seen that version on a consistent basis. Those are the only two prep arms I’d feel comfortable taking in the first round right now, and in a good draft those are closer to back-end first round arms, not the best high school pitchers in the class.
EOB: As long as we’re on the topic of questionable non-college arms, what’s your feeling about Brady Aiken’s draft outlook? [Note: Aiken was chosen No. 1 overall by the Astros last year; the two sides failed to come to terms, and Aiken eventually underwent Tommy John surgery.]
CC: Aiken’s story is unfortunately fascinating, and I’m really not sure how this story ends. At one point I thought he was a lock for the top 10, but there’s a strong chance that he doesn’t go in the first-round because of the concerns involving the elbow. My guess is that he goes either 18th to San Francisco, 23rd to St. Louis or 25th to the Dodgers, but I really don’t know. In terms of talent he’s the best player in the class, but man oh man is there a lot of risk involved here. I wish that wasn’t the case.
EOB: So if you’re Diamondbacks scouting director Deric Ladnier, whom are you taking with the No. 1 overall pick?
CC: It’s close, but I’m taking Brendan Rodgers (SS, Lake Mary HS, Fla.). He’s the most talented player in the class — not including Aiken — and a shortstop who has a chance to hit for both average and power is a rare commodity that I can’t pass on.
EOB: What separates him from Dansby Swanson (SS, Vanderbilt) and Alex Bregman (SS, LSU) in your mind?
CC: Two different — but important factors at play: 1. He’s got much more offensive firepower than Swanson, who I believe is more of a 60-45 player as compared to the potential 60-60 you could get from Rodgers. And with Bregman, it’s the likelihood that he’ll play shortstop. As much as he’s improved there, I still think there’s a pretty solid chance Bregman spends most of his career on the other side of second base. The bat plays at either position, but of course I’d rather have the shortstop.
Vanderbilt’s Dansby Swanson figures to go high in the 2015 draft. (Getty) EOB: So am I correct in assuming you see a bit of a drop-off in terms of talent/ceiling after Rodgers? If so, when’s the next step down in the first round?
CC: A fairly substantial one, yes. I think Dillon Tate (RHP, UC Santa Barbara), Swanson, Bregman make up another group — the 55-value player, if you will — and then it drops to the 50 guys like Garrett Whitley (OF, Niskayuna HS, N.Y.), Kyle Tucker (OF, Plant HS, Fla.), Trenton Clark (OF, Richland HS, Texas) and Daz Cameron (OF, Eagle’s Landing Christian Academy, Ga.).
EOB: So in a sense the Astros with their second pick at No. 5 are potentially in an unfortunate spot?
CC: Well, yes and no. Yes if the draft plays out in a “best player available” way, but it’s looking more and more likely that Colorado is going to take Tyler Jay (LHP, Illinois) with the No. 3 pick, which opens up the opportunity to take one of the “big four” should they drop. I’ts not a lock, but it could play out a lot kinder than it probably should.
EOB: I guess this is more of a statement than a question, but I would guess teams take draft class strength into account when deciding whether or not to sign a free agent who turned down a qualifying offer. I’m thinking specifically of the Mets. I wonder if they sign Cuddyer if they had a better chance of getting a high-ceiling talent at No. 15.
CC: I think there might have been some of that, but I think it’s important to keep in mind that on paper, this didn’t look like a terrible draft class coming into the spring. The injuries to Aiken and Mike Matuella (RHP, Duke) put a major damper on it, though, as did the lack of prep pitching stepping up. But yes, I do think teams keep that in mind when exploring their options.
EOB: Who’s one highly regarded guy you’re skeptical of, maybe more skeptical than most observers?
CC: I’m not alone on being skeptical on his future, but the guy I’d go with is Carson Fulmer (RHP, Vanderbilt). No one can deny the success he’s had at Vanderbilt, and when he’s at his best he’ll show a 70 fastball with loads of movement along with a hard breaking-ball that’s more slider than curveball but has the spin to get away with being “slurvy.” My issue is with the delivery — there’s loads of effort in his delivery — and at 5’11” 195, at best, I have serious doubts about whether he can handle the rigors of 200 innings. I’m all for reward, but I need the reward to outweigh the risk, and I’m not sure that’s the case here.
EOB: On the other side, who’s a guy you like who you think might be getting short shrift in the run-up to the draft?
CC: Nick Plummer (OF, Brother Rice HS, Mich.). No he doesn’t have the athleticism to play center and the power is closer to average than plus, but the guy can hit, and only Ian Happ (OF/INF, Cincinnati) has a higher potential hit tool to me. He likely goes in the bottom of Round 1, but I’d take him in the top 15, maybe even the top 10.
EOB: Moving to the team level, is there a particular team who really needs to prove something with this draft haul?
CC: I would say the Astros. It sure appears they hit on Carlos Correa, but Mark Appel has been woefully inconsistent in his time in the Houston system, and of course there’s the ugliness of what happened last year. My personal opinion is that the Astros front office is one of the best in baseball, but when you have picks 2, 5 and 37 and you’re coming off some shakiness, it’s a pretty darn important class.
EOB: So who are your top 10 on the board in as we head into Monday?
CC: 1. Brendan Rodgers; 2. Dansby Swanson; 3. Dillon Tate; 4. Alex Bregman; 5. Ian Happ; 6. Kevin Newman (SS, Arizona); 7. Garrett Whitley; 8. Kolby Allard; 9. Mike Nikorak; 10. Nick Plummer.
EOB: Final question: Briefly, how’s the 2016 draft class looking a year out?
CC: Obviously a lot can change, but on paper it’s a much stronger class. There’s a glut of quality college pitchers, and a much improved prep group. We’ll see how things play out, but it could be one of the stronger classes of the young century.
Our thanks to Chris Crawford for his time. Once again, find him on Twitter or at Baseball Prospectus.
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