First Down: Chip Kelly’s split personality a knock against Murray
As the summer heats up, Yahoo’s resident Noisemaker will offer his hot takes on specific players, trends and strategies much discussed in Fantasyland. Naturally, whatever he forecasts, the opposite is bound to occur. Feel free to offer your two cents in the comments section below.
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The Buzz: Eagles beat writers from the Philadelphia Inquirer and Delaware County Times are becoming increasingly convinced Chip Kelly will institute a RB timeshare between DeMarco Murray, Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles this season. Former Duck Kenjon Barner, who’s drawn rave reviews from Kelly this offseason, and tank Matthew Tucker could also enter the mix. According to offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur’s recent “it takes a village” comment, the brotherly backfield is setting up to be a fantasy nightmare. At this time, the proposed division is unknown and will likely vary from week-to-week, an unsolved mystery that greatly complicates Murray’s perceived high-end value (11.2 Yahoo ADP).
Why throwing dollars at DeMarco is a profitless endeavor:
Kelly’s unpredictability. Mike Shanahan, once the most devilish, most deceitful coach in football, has passed the torch. For fantasy purposes, Chip is the new “Lucifer.” As LeSean McCoy owners can attest, it’s impossible to pinpoint exactly what the treacherous play-caller is thinking, especially near the goal-line. The randomness is great for real-life football as it keeps defenses guessing, but for the stats-driven community every Sproles or Chris Polk red-zone touch was a crane kick to the crotch.
Murray was a highly effective goal-line runner last year, punching in nine touchdowns on 17 attempts inside the five. Though he’s rarely received the rock near the pylons, Mathews, coincidentally, is 8-of-17 in those situations over his five-year career. It seems idiotic not to give Murray, a 6-foot, 217-pound ox with a strong yards-after-contact history, plentiful scoring opportunities, but Kelly doesn’t subscribe to common sense. Last year, the Eagles scored 16 rushing touchdowns. This fall, Murray could net six or 16. Who the hell knows?!
Workload. In his two years under Kelly, McCoy, who played all 32 regular season games in those seasons, logged 74.5 percent of the RB touches. Tiresome. That’s promising news for Murray, but Chip never had a two-time 1,000-yard rusher as a backup. Mathews’ presence muddies the waters. There’s no way Kelly will call Murray’s number 392 times like Jason Garrett and Bill Callahan did. As some have already speculated, the complement could receive upwards of 12 touches per game. Shurmur’s remark above only supports that notion. If a 60-40 split materializes, Murray would be in line for 265-285 total touches (15-18 per game), a far cry from the exhaustive load he shouldered last year.
Injury concern. Some people believe in little green men, squatches and video game hexes. I am not that type. However, the evidence against drafting a running back, coming off a burdensome 498-touch season, playoffs included, is awfully compelling. The “Curse of 370” has some validity. Of the 29 backs, not counting Murray, who’ve recorded such a workload 71.4 percent missed at least one game the following year. Michael Turner, the Curse’s most recent victim, was sidelined for five contests in 2009 after rolling up 376 carries the previous fall. Couple that history with Murray’s injury-plagued past – up until 2014 he missed 11 games in his first three seasons – and upright running style, which leaves him exposed to brutal lower-body hits, and it’s clear how enhanced the risks really are.
Hard-to-project pass game. Sam Bradford is about as durable as a rose petal in a hail storm. The former No. 1 overall pick has missed 61.3 percent of his games since entering the league in 2010. Playing for the Eagles provides a breakout opportunity, but coming off reconstructive knee surgery, he remains a giant question mark. In late May, Bradford himself expressed hesitancy about his Week 1 availability. His June 2 return to 7-on-7 drills was encouraging, but he still has miles to go. If he doesn’t play a full slate, which is a strong possibility, Murray could see numerous stacked boxes with Mark Sanchez or (insert operatic sounds) Tim Tebow under center. Philly’s offensive line, which ranked No. 1 in run-blocking last year according to Pro Football Focus, can only do so much. Though I’m rather high on Nelson Agholor and, to a certain extent, Jordan Matthews, the receiving corps also isn’t completely foolproof.
Bottom line: Ask yourself, when it comes to Murray, why pay for the career year? The hand dealt to him in Dallas last year was “the nuts.” He was blessed with a stellar offensive line, proven quarterback and had minimal competition. He managed to stay healthy, a feat akin to a smiling Kanye being caught on camera, and was subsequently driven into the ground. If you chase last year’s stats, long conversations with Johnnie Walker are sure to follow. Just over 43 percent of drafted RB1s since 2009 have failed to meet expectations, meaning they didn’t finish inside the position’s top-15. Considering the setup, Murray is bound to boost that statistic. If you must go RB early (Sidebar: Personally, I’m aiming for Andrew Luck or a top-flight WR in the latter half of Round 1), Matt Forte (10.8 ADP), Arian Foster (16.4), Jeremy Hill (19.8) and, heck, even Justin Forsett (40.7) are sounder investments at or well-after where the reigning rush king is going. Simply, the risk outweighs the potential reward. Mark me down for 1,250 combined yards and 7 TDs from Murray this season. And that’s if he avoids the injury imp.
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