2015 SEC West over/under win total picks: Tide still on top? – CBSSports.com
There’s less than 100 days to college football season. The preseason magazines are hitting newsstands. Bets are open on every FBS team’s 2015 win total. The season is almost here!
Well … that might be pushing it. Still, it’s closer than it’s ever been (and now it’s even closer … and now it’s even closer), and to celebrate, it’s time to pull out the SEC’s win totals and make our picks on overs and unders for the fourth straight year. Picking record over the first three years: 20-22*. So, yeah, entertainment purposes only here.
But you have to admit: this is entertaining. We’re tackling the SEC West on Thursday, with the East coming this Friday. As always, win totals reflect regular-season contests only (no conference championship or bowl games included) and lines are current at 5Dimes as of Thursday. (Plus-odds indicate a bettor earns more money back than wagered if the bet pays off, minus-odds the opposite; a bet at +120 earns $120 for every $100 wagered, a bet at -120 requires $120 wagered to win $100. Got it?)
Team names are linked to 2015 schedules. Enjoy!
Alabama, 9.5 wins (over -145, under +105)
The Tide have quite possibly the nation’s best front seven. They have — judging from spring practice — improved cornerback play. Of all the FBS thunder-and-lightning tailback tandems, they have the most thunder-and-lightning tailback tandem in Derrick Henry and Kenyan Drake. But … do they have a passing game? Amari Cooper is gone, and despite a publicly solid-enough spring, whispers abound that Jacob Coker could lose the starting quarterback job to David Cornwell. The Tide haven’t lost more than one regular season game since 2010 and have won 11 or more seven of the past eight years … but in a division this loaded, with arguably their two toughest opponents (Georgia and Auburn) on the road, and little certain about the Tide’s aerial attack, -145 for 10 wins seems too expensive. This is a pick with the tinest amounts of confidence behind it, but the guess here is UNDER 9.5 WINS.
Arkansas, 8.5 wins (over +120, under -160)
Even at 6-6, the Hogs weren’t that far away from hitting nine wins last season when they lost four different SEC games by a touchdown or less. By the end of the season Bret Bielema was overseeing a positively murderous defense (just ask Texas), a defense that loses some key parts (Trey Flowers, Martrell Spaight) but retains coordinator Robb Smith and a highly underrated secondary. If Brandon Allen’s spring improvement was legitimate, it’s far from out of the question the Razorbacks ride their running game, defense and some long-overdue breaks to a 2-2 split of their four SEC road games (Tennessee, Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU) and a 7-1 record at home/neutral. Especially with the under juiced, here’s a pick for OVER 8.5 WINS.
Auburn, 8.5 wins (over -165, under +125)
Even in a 2014 season in which the defense collapsed, the offense never quite recaptured its delirious 2013 form, and the schedule sent them to both Athens and Tuscaloosa, the Tigers still managed eight wins. Now both Georgia and Alabama come to the Plains, they pull Kentucky in their rotating East slot, Will Muschamp is in charge of the defense and on paper there’s no genuine offensive weakness (though Jeremy Johnson and the offensive line do, let’s say, have something to prove). Surely the combination of easier schedule and defensive improvement can yield one more win, right? OVER 8.5 WINS.
LSU, 8 wins (over -125, under -115)
Say hello to the SEC team with maybe the widest gap between its ceiling and its floor. If Anthony Jennings or Brandon Harris give the Tigers even replacement-level quarterbacking, La’el Collins isn’t missed in the run-blocking department, and Kevin Steele (and a loaded secondary) maintains LSU’s recent defensive excellence, Leonard Fournette could power this team to a national title. If the quarterbacks stay below-par, Collins’ absence means less up-front push, and Steele can’t prevent a slippage following John Chavis’s departure, this could be a schedule with six losses. Bottom line: a team that a year ago didn’t beat any Power Five opponent other than Kentucky by more than six points probably doesn’t have the firepower to go 9-3 in this particular division — meaning that although a push won’t be a surprise at all, the under seems likelier than the over. UNDER 8 WINS.
Ole Miss, 8.5 wins (over -110, under -130)
The Rebels have an immediate leg up on their Western brethren thanks their annual Vanderbilt date, and another one thanks to what could be — and given the returning likes of Robert Nkemdiche, Tony Conner, Marquis Haynes, etc., maybe should be — the FBS’s best defense. But with no more Dr. Bo and one of the SEC’s weakest ground games, can they score enough points to win nine games? If Laquon Treadwell and the offensive line stay healthy, their pre-Treadwell injury start to 2014 suggests they can. Another razor-tight call, but the pick is OVER 8.5 WINS.
Mississippi State, 7 wins (over -115, under -125)
The good news: the Bulldogs (again) have four all-but-certain wins in their nonconference slate (give or take a Louisiana Tech), and home to Kentucky is as cushy a non-Vanderbilt draw as the East provides. The bad news: given their major personnel losses, Dan Mullen’s team could be underdogs in all seven other games: vs. LSU, at Auburn, at A&M, at Missouri, vs. Alabama, at Arkansas, and vs. Ole Miss. Which is more likely: Dak Prescott and Co. go 1-6, or 3-4? Neither seems particularly likely — if this line was at 6.5 we’d take the over, and at 7.5 we’d take the under — but the home slate seems too grueling to call for the over. UNDER 7 WINS.
Texas A&M, 7.5 wins (over -215, under +165)
Trivia Q: How many defenses gave up more yards-per-play in SEC play in 2014 than A&M’s? Trivia A: None. Zero defenses. Getting Vanderbilt and a home date with similarly defensively-challenged South Carolina out of the East should be a massive help, and there’s three gimmes on the nonconference schedule. Assuming that’s five wins, the Aggies would need to go just 3-4 vs. Alabama, Auburn and Mississippi State at home, Ole Miss and LSU on the road, and Arkansas and Arizona State in neutral(ish) venues. It’s certainly possible with Kyle Allen in firm control of the offense, but unless John Chavis is every bit the wizard he’s been made out to be by some College Station faithful, that defense means -215 is too much juice to side with the over. UNDER 7.5 WINS.
*In my feeble defense, Auburn and Missouri simultaneously coming out of nowhere to romp to Atlanta in 2013 is singlehandedly (or doublehandedly?) holding this mark back; I went 3-11 that season and a respectable-if-hardly-spectacular 17-11 in 2012/2014, for whatever that’s worth (i.e., just this side of nothing).
Can Lane Kiffin maintain Alabama’s offensive success? (USATSI)This entry passed through the Full-Text RSS service – if this is your content and you’re reading it on someone else’s site, please read the FAQ at fivefilters.org/content-only/faq.php#publishers.
