D-Backs ship Trumbo to M's in six-player deal
What will Mark Trumbo mean for the struggling M’s? (USATSI)
On Wednesday the Mariners acquired slugging outfielder Mark Trumbo from the Diamondbacks as part of a six-player deal. Since Trumbo is rather plainly the most significant of the six players involved, let’s focus our analysis on what kind of difference he figures to make for the struggling M’s. The short answer? Not much of a difference.
To be sure, Trumbo has plenty of right-handed power. He’s slugging .506 this season, and for his career he’s averaging 32 homers per 162 games played. What he doesn’t do is get on base at an acceptable clip for a bat-only player. In fact, he owns a .298 OBP for his career, and the Steamer projection system tabs him for a .302 OBP over the rest of the season. As well, his new home ballpark is going to be working against his lone skill. While Chase Field, home of the D-backs, inflates home run rates for right-handed batters by about five percent, Safeco cuts down on those same rate by about three percent. High-level mathematics will tell you that’s an eight percent swing in the wrong direction.
Beyond all that, Trumbo’s narrow skill-set is a poor match for the M’s roster. More to the point, pity center fielder Austin Jackson, who’s going to be regularly flanked by any two of Trumbo, Seth Smith and Nelson Cruz — pronounced defensive liabilities, all. That’d be a poor alignment in any venue, let alone Safeco and its spacious gaps.
In terms of WAR, which does a solid job of capturing total value, Trumbo figures to add less than a win above replacement over the rest of 2015. Once the full complement of baseball skills are accounted for, Trumbo profiles as a below-average performer in Seattle.
The Mariner offense presently ranks 14th in the AL with an OBP of .298. As noted above, that’s precisely Trumbo’s career mark. This is to say, he does nothing to address the primary obstacle standing between Seattle and improved run-scoring. Consider his addition to be a half-measure on the part of Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik.
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