Daily Picks: Blackhawks will get big road win
The Lightning and Blackhawks are set to open the Stanley Cup Final. (USATSI)
Welcome to the Stanley Cup Final Daily Picks, where CBS hockey writers Chris Peters and Adam Gretz get you ready for every game every day of the final series and share their predictions for each.
The buildup only has hours left before it gives way to actual hockey. It’s only been three days since the conference finals ended, but in the non-stop hockey-on-every-night whirling dervish that is the Stanley Cup Playoffs, three days is an eternity. The waiting stops tonight, however.
The Tampa Bay Lightning will play host to the Chicago Blackhawks in what is setting up to be a fantastic Stanley Cup Final. This series pits two of the NHL’s best offensive teams against each other in a battle that should be based more on skill than brawn. The Lightning are basically the new kids on the block, even though Tampa Bay was in the Eastern Conference Final not so long ago in 2011. The Blackhawks are your neighbor’s older brother with the Camaro parked on the street.
Led by a young coach, with budding young stars and a captain that is about to experience his first shot at hockey immortality, the Lightning have home ice and they have confidence. Tampa Bay rolled through three Original Six teams and is the first to ever meet four in the same postseason.
The aura of the Original Six can sometimes be overstated, but there’s an element of truth to those clubs routinely being among the best in the NHL (sit down, Toronto Maple Leafs). The Lightning outlasted the Detroit Red Wings in seven games, which was perhaps their biggest challenge of the playoffs. They took out the Montreal Canadiens in six games after building a 3-0 series advantage, avenging a sweep at the hands of the Habs last postseason. Lastly, the Lightning waltzed into Madison Square Garden and shut out the New York Rangers in both Games 5 and 7. They don’t have a lot of experience, but they’re battle tested now.
The Blackhawks, meanwhile, seek their third Stanley Cup in six years. They’d be the first team in the salary cap era to win a third Stanley Cup. Led by a core of seven players that were key contributors for the Stanley Cup wins in 2010 and 2013, this club has been through so many different scenarios almost nothing would surprise them. On top of the established core, Chicago has added a mix of veteran players and continually built through the draft to create a team that has made deep runs their thing lately. The roster is littered with star players and the team is led by a coach who will one day see his name in the Hockey Hall of Fame.
When it comes to Game 1, there’s always that added excitement. For the home team, it’s a chance to experience unprecedented energy in their building. That also puts a lot of pressure on the home side, but the Blackhawks haven’t been particularly great on the road as they are 5-4 in these playoffs away from the United Center.
Of the three Stanley Cup Finals the Blackhawks have played in since 2010, this is the first time they’ll start on the road. It’s a subtle difference, but any little advantage that can be gained is important and home ice gives the Lightning a little advantage.
Tampa also gets the last change, which probably won’t matter much to Chicago coach Joel Quenneville. Lightning coach Jon Cooper isn’t an aggressive line-matcher like Quenneville anyway. What is going to be extremely interesting is to see how Quenneville plays the matchups and particularly which line Jonathan Toews will play against. The Blackhawks played the matchups on the road expertly in Game 7 against the Ducks.
The Lightning have the best top-six forward group Chicago has seen this postseason and they’ll present a number of matchup challenges to the Blackhawks. Toews, who is expected to lineup alongside Brandon Saad and Patrick Kane, is one of the game’s elite defensive forwards, but Quenneville is going to have to pick his poison. Will Chicago’s top line go head-to-head with Steven Stamkos, Alex Killorn and Valtteri Filppula? Or will it be the increasingly famous “Triplets” line of Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat and Nikita Kucherov? Whichever line Toews doesn’t get may fall to Marian Hossa, who is expected to lineup with Brad Richards and Bryan Bickell – for now at least. Those are among the intriguing matchups to start.
Every time it looks like the Lightning are going to be consumed by the gravity of each series, they respond with another great effort. Though they have been challenged time and time again this postseason, this is easily the toughest matchup they’ve faced and the biggest situation most of Tampa’s players have experienced.
Game 1 may start with a bit of a feeling out process between unfamiliar opponents, but don’t expect that to mean it’s going to start slowly. These two teams want to play with pace and it’s going to be a race to find out which team is going to set the speed of the game. The team that dictates the game in transition could end up being the one that wins Game 1.
Chris Peters’ Pick: Blackhawks 3, Lightning 2
Adam Gretz’s Pick: Blackhawks 4, Lightning 2
Three Stars
1. Patrick Kane, Chicago Blackhawks: With five points over the last two games of the Western Conference Final after moving to a line with Toews, things really seem to be clicking for Kane. They’ve been clicking all postseason, really, but that top line with Toews, Saad and Kane is really something when it’s together. The second leading scorer of the Stanley Cup Playoffs could have yet another statement game.
2. Jonathan Toews, Chicago Blackhawks: Toews has five goals over his last four games and will have a lot of defensive responsibilities to take on as well. However, the dynamic of the Toews line sure seems to change with Kane on it. It goes from very good to near unstoppable it seems.
3. Tyler Johnson, Tampa Bay Lightning: The leading scorer in the postseason is going to be a key player in this series for Tampa, especially because of his speed. Johnson hasn’t scored a goal in his last four games, but they’re going to need him to fill the net in this series. That’s especially true if Steven Stamkos ends up getting the tougher defensive matchups. Johnson’s speed and tenacity will go a long way in Game 1 and this series.
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