What We Learned: Tampa Bay Lightning’s secret weapon

(Hello, this is a feature that will run through the entire season and aims to recap the weekend’s events and boils those events down to one admittedly superficial fact or stupid opinion about each team. Feel free to complain about it.

At this point there should be no surprise that the teams which finished second and fourth in possession numbers during the NHL’s regular season are advancing to the Stanley Cup Final.

You expect that from Chicago, of course. Chicago always finishes near the top of the league in this regard. You do not necessarily expect it from Tampa.

Between this season and last, the Lightning took a major step forward, improving CF% by two whole percentage points and seven spots in the league. There are probably a lot of reasons why that happened, of course. Jon Cooper’s system had another year in the hearts and minds of his charges, making everything he wanted to instill since Day 1 a little easier for those players to achieve. And the many young players on the roster continued to improve, as young players tend to do. But perhaps most important: the team went out and tried to shore up its depth, and did so largely with just two moves.

Interestingly, Steve Yzerman really sought to acquire former New York Rangers via free agency, adding Brian Boyle and Anton Stralman last summer (along with Brenden Morrow, though the less said about that the better). He also went out and traded for Jason Garrison before free agency, significantly improving his top-four.

Boyle was one of only a few Lightning forwards who was sub-50 percent in terms of possession — Morrow was another — but that was because he got the tougher of the assignments the team had. He was brought aboard to serve in a checking role, and check he did. The Bolts were, however, out-possessed and outscored when Boyle was on the ice.

That Victor Hedman is one of the league’s best defensemen is, at this point, not really up for discussion. He is awesome and he drives play and scoring like few can. But last year, he was more or less the only truly great, or even very good, defenseman Steve Yzerman had on the payroll. In terms of even-strength minutes per game, Tampa’s top-four went like this: Matt Carle, Victor Hedman, Radko Gudas(!), Eric Brewer(!!). Yikes. Among Tampa D-men with at least 1,000 minutes in 2013-14 — and those guys just listed were the only four — Hedman (53.92 percent CF) and Brewer (50.29 percent) were the only ones with their heads above water.

And this year, with the addition of Stralman and Garrison, things went a lot better.

Hedman, as you might imagine, is asked to log a lot of minutes, and when he’s on the ice, the Bolts are one of the best teams in the league. When he’s not, the problems they had were stark. Until this year, that is.

What’s interesting about this is that Hedman’s numbers stayed remarkably consistent from one year to the next, especially so when you consider the time he lost to injury this season and all. But Tampa’s numbers without Hedman this season were drastically improved.

In 2013-14 losing Hedman for 23 games would have been disastrous — Tampa sinks to a sub-50 possession team and all other percentages decline as well (though goals-for not so much, simply because of how much luck is involved), but this year they barely missed him in a lot of ways, but especially in their own end.

The question, then, is how much of a difference Stralman himself made.

He is and has been one of those guys that the underlying numbers loved, but who hadn’t — until this season — really done a lot to produce offense. Having nine goals, 30 assists, and 39 points, all career highs, is in many ways a product of his finally being used as an option on the top power play unit (he went 2-12-14 on the man advantage), makes Yzerman look like a genius for signing that rich deal. He’s getting $4.5 million per season through 2019, and right now that number looks like a bargain.

But Stralman’s impact goes well beyond point production again this year; he merely mixed more goals and assists into his game, because in several other ways, this was a career season as well.

With basically no change in time on ice — the drop from 15.7 to 15.61 minutes per night at even strength is about five seconds — the only thing that didn’t improve was the goals-against and high-quality scoring chances against numbers, but those issues were offset by huge steps forward in the “-for” category of both those stats. However, the larger number of high-quality chances for per 60 minutes might go a little way toward explaining why Tampa goalies only stopped .905 at evens behind Stralman (you’d still have to say that’s a luck thing for the most part, though, and also the downgrade from Henrik Lundqvist to Ben Bishop et al).

For the most part, these numbers stack up very well against the best defensemen in the league; in terms of similarity scores, Stralman’s 2014-15 campaign looks like some of the best work of guys like Ryan Suter, Dougie Hamilton, Kris Letang and Kevin Shattenkirk. Which is obviously worth more than $4.5 million.

Of course, we know that usage plays a huge role in how players produce, and it stands to reason that Stralman might have been able to take things a little easier given how strong Tampa’s top-four was this year. But Cooper went in the opposite direction, pressing him into some of the most difficult scenarios the team had to offer, to an extent that no coach has ever used him before (this chart includes both the regular season and playoffs):

He’s playing much, much better competition, and dominating anyway. Which, in turn, allows for Cooper to use Hedman in more advantageous and strategic positions. Hedman’s regular-season numbers in particular suggest a slight decline in quality of competition, while he’s also getting more offensive zone starts than he ever has before. In short, the use of Stralman takes a load off for Victor Hedman, and heck if Hedman didn’t have one of his best seasons to date as a result.

What’s amazing was that Stralman, a guy the possession numbers love, was acquired in the so-called Summer of Analytics, and carried what appeared to be a hefty price tag — his $4.5 million cap hit is tied for 44th in the league among defensemen, effectively making him a high-end No. 2 — but he didn’t play much with Hedman (just under 444 minutes, compared with 836.5 with someone else). That allowed Cooper to use them as a sort of 1a/1b, with Stralman getting the tougher assignments so Hedman could shine.

And courtesy of Own the Puck, we can see how well that went for all involved (and keep in mind that Hedman also didn’t break into the “top pairing” designation for TOI/GP):

So even when almost every team in the league decided they were, in fact, on the lookout for possession-driving players whose talent wasn’t necessarily reflected in goals and assists, Yzerman got himself a top-pairing defenseman at second-pairing money, and Cooper used them both to great effect.

The fact that Hedman is still only 24, and that Stralman won’t be 29 until Aug. 1, should be a major concern for everyone in the league over the next three or four years.

Tampa’s offense may get the attention, but the addition of Stralman is what really allows the entire team to be better.

What We Learned

Anaheim Ducks: Things to think about include: “Maybe Patrick Maroon and Matt Beleskey shouldn’t be top-six forwards,” “Maybe we need better defensemen,” and “Maybe we need a better goalie.” That’s just me thinking.

Arizona Coyotes: Nick Boynton is back in his job as a Coyotes radio analyst after biting a cop. He bit a cop and he’s still alive!

Boston Bruins: There’s basically no way to “overpay” Dougie Hamilton unless you give him, like, PK Subban money. Which the Bruins can’t because their cap situation is still a disaster.

Buffalo Sabres: Evander Kane is recovering from his bum shoulder ahead of schedule. I can’t wait to watch what this kid can do under Dan Bylsma, playing with one of Buffalo’s actual-good centers.

Calgary Flames: Why, in 2015, do we really have to argue things like, “Not having to pay Brian McGrattan any more is actually good?”

Carolina Hurricanes: The Hurricanes re-signed AHL goalie Drew MacIntyre to a one-year deal. He has a career .914 save percentage in the AHL, and is perfectly fine at that level. This is the kind of news you get at the end of May.

Chicago: Yo this Jonathan Toews shot was out of control.

Colorado Avalanche: Draft-eligible Pavel Zacha told an Avs website that the team has a lot of interest in drafting him. Okay, good luck!

Columbus Blue Jackets: Wow how did they get Justin Falk to agree to a two-way deal for so cheap? That’s amazing and… Justin “Falk” isn’t the same as Justin “Faulk,” you say? Well the good news is that will never not be confusing for like half a second every time it comes up.

Dallas Stars: Apparently Tyler Seguin’s hair smells good.

Detroit Red Wings: The Wings are waiting until after the Grand Rapids Griffins are out of the AHL playoffs to name a head coach, probably because they don’t want Jeff Blashill having two jobs at once.

Edmonton Oilers: Oilers players and coaches helped walk some novice, peewee, and atom players through drills over the weekend, and maybe, just maybe, they’ve finally found their No. 1 defenseman.

Florida Panthers: Wow, Brett Olson!

Los Angeles Kings: Nothing going on anywhere near the public eye for the Kings right now. One presumes they’re still trying to figure out a way to retain Tyler Toffoli and Martin Jones without both exceeding the cap and having to Boychuk some players to teams with more cap flexibility.

Minnesota Wild: The Wild plan on doing very little in free agency this summer apart from re-signing some of their own guys. No surprise there. They’ve spent a lot for these mediocre results.

Montreal Canadiens: Are we sure the “Brampton Beast” isn’t one of those made-up teams from a hockey movie no one saw?

Nashville Predators, America’s Favorite Hockey Team: What do you think would be a reasonable contract for Mike Ribeiro, who’s 35 and coming off a percentage-driven season in which he put up a lot more points than anyone should reasonably expect next year? The real question is “Who’s going to be both available and better?” The unfortunate answer is “Probably no one, which sucks because signing guys to multi-year, 35-plus deals is bad business.”

New Jersey Devils: Oh this would be a good move for the Devils. Yessir. Phil Housley seems like he’s going to be an excellent NHL coach.

New York Islanders: This story rules.

New York Rangers: If you watched the Rangers’ Game 7 loss to Tampa, and thought to yourself, “What this team really needs is more physicality,” I don’t know what to tell you.

Ottawa Senators: Imagine keeping 57-year-old Craig Anderson over Robin Lehner. The Sens just might do it depending upon who they can get in trade. This would ideally happen before the draft, apparently? Man.

Philadelphia Flyers: Because Chicago advanced to the Cup Final, Philly will now get two second-round picks for Kimmo Timonen instead of a second and a fourth. Works out for everyone. Except Chicago.

Pittsburgh Penguins: Christian Ehrhoff is selling his house in Pittsburgh. RIPenguins.

San Jose Sharks: The Sharks are kicking the tires on hiring Steve Spott as an assistant coach. That’s almost like getting Randy Carlyle, I guess.

St. Louis Blues: The Blues signed defenseman Jordan Schmaltz from North Dakota after a strong junior season. Can’t say I blame ’em.

Tampa Bay Lightning: The second Alex Killorn scored this one, you knew the game and series were over. Not a good one to give up from ol’ Hank Lundqvist.

Toronto Maple Leafs: Nathan Horton says he’s “healthy and happy,” and you know the Leafs are like, “But not TOO healthy right?”

Vancouver Canucks: Yup, the Sedins are indeed still top-line players, but for maybe a season or two more? Then what? Disaster.

Washington Capitals: Tim Gleason enjoyed his time with the Capitals. The same is probably not true in the opposite direction.

Winnipeg Jets: The Jets have a lot of good goalies under contract, and none of them make as much as Ondrej Pavelec.

Play of the Weekend

If Brandon Saad had been any more open on this goal, he would have been inside-out.

Gold Star Award

Buffalo Sabres GM Tim Murray, left, and newly hired coach Dan Bylsma hold a Sabres' jersey as they pose for a photo after a news conference Thursday, May 28, 2015, in Buffalo, N.Y. A week after losing out on Mike Babcock, the Buffalo Sabres went with another experienced Stanley Cup winner by hiring Dan Bylsma to become their next coach. (AP Photo/Gary Wiepert)

Hey, they’re going to more closely define how compensation for non-player personnel moves work, so that guys who have been fired don’t end up costing the team hiring him anything. What a strange idea.

Minus of the Weekend