Duels Primer: Will any big names miss the Daytona 500?

DAYTONA BEACH, Fla – There’s a chance a NASCAR star could miss the Daytona 500.

It’s a true statement, though on the surface, it is a bit hyperbolic. Because of the abolishment of the top-35 rule, 13 drivers are locked in to Sunday’s Daytona 500, leaving 36 drivers to race for 30 spots in Thursday night’s Budweiser Duels.

Here’s how it works:

Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson are starting the Daytona 500 on the front row. If they crash and are forced to go to a backup car in either of Thursday’s qualifying races, they’ll have to start at the back of the field. But they’re still in the race no matter what happens.

Outside of Gordon and Johnson, Jamie McMurray, Carl Edwards, Aric Almirola and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. are also guaranteed to be in the 500. They posted the four-fastest non-front row times on Sunday.

However, it’s not guaranteed where those four will start the race. The top-15 finishers (outside of Gordon and Johnson) in each Duel take starting spots 2-32 in the race. If the four drivers above finish in the top 15 of their duels, the spots guaranteed on speed move to the next eligible drivers who didn’t finish in the top 15.

Then, rounding out the field are seven provisional spots, including one for a past Sprint Cup Series champion. The first one up on that list (who isn’t guaranteed a provisional via the 2014 owner’s points standings) is Tony Stewart. He’s guaranteed in the Daytona 500, but if he finishes in the top 15 in his race or gets in on speed, it could go to Kurt Busch or Bobby Labonte.

The chances of Dale Earnhardt Jr. missing the 500 are quite slim. Junior isn’t guaranteed in because he didn’t have a top-six speed in Sunday’s qualifying session and didn’t finish high enough in the 2014 owner’s points standings to guarantee himself a provisional. But for Junior to miss the 500, Kevin Harvick, Jeff Burton, Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski and Matt Kenseth (all guaranteed into the 500) would all have to take provisionals. It’s (incredibly likely) not happening.

Danica Patrick? Well, her chances of missing the 500 are bigger. After posting the 31st-fastest qualifying time on Sunday, Patrick needs a lot of cars faster than she was on Sunday to race into the top 15 in their duels and not need a provisional. That is, of course, if Patrick doesn’t finish in the top 15 of her duel. If she does, she’s in.

Here are the starting lineups for the Budweiser Duels and who our best guesses as to who will make the Daytona 500. We’re not expecting any surprises, but just one crash could throw a wrench into anyone’s best guesses.

RACE 1

1. Jeff Gordon – LOCKED IN
2. Matt Kenseth – LOCKED IN
3. Kasey Kahne – LIKELY IN
4. Ty Dillon – LIKELY IN
5. Jamie McMurray – LIKELY IN
6. Johnny Sauter – LIKELY IN
7. Trevor Bayne – LIKELY IN
8. Aric Almirola – LOCKED IN
9. Brad Keselowski – LOCKED IN
10. Joey Logano – LOCKED IN
11. J.J. Yeley – LIKELY IN
12. Paul Menard – LIKELY IN
13. AJ Allmendinger – LIKELY IN
14. Kevin Harvick – LOCKED IN
15. Tony Stewart – LOCKED IN
16. Casey Mears – LIKELY IN
17. Michael Annett – LIKELY OUT
18. Kyle Larson – LIKELY IN
19. Michael McDowell – BUBBLE
20. Clint Bowyer – LIKELY IN
21. Justin Marks – LIKELY OUT
22. Cole Whitt – BUBBLE
23. Landon Cassill – BUBBLE
24. Ron Hornaday Jr. – LIKELY OUT
25. Dale Earnhardt Jr. – LIKELY IN

RACE 2

1. Jimmie Johnson – LOCKED IN
2. Kyle Busch – LIKELY IN
3. Carl Edwards – LOCKED IN
4. Austin Dillon – LIKELY IN
5. Martin Truex Jr. – LIKELY IN
6. Greg Biffle – LIKELY IN
7. Sam Hornish Jr. – LIKELY IN
8. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – LOCKED IN
9. Ryan Blaney – BUBBLE
10. Michael Waltrip – LIKELY IN
11. Bobby Labonte – LIKELY IN
12. Alex Bowman – BUBBLE
13. Ryan Newman – LOCKED IN
14. Kurt Busch – LIKELY IN
15. Danica Patrick – LIKELY IN
16. Brian Scott – BUBBLE
17. Justin Allgaier – LIKELY IN
18. David Gilliland – LIKELY IN
19. Jeb Burton – BUBBLE
20. Reed Sorenson – LIKELY OUT
21. David Ragan – BUBBLE
22. Josh Wise – BUBBLE
23. Mike Wallace – LIKELY OUT
24. Denny Hamlin – LOCKED IN