Power Rankings: Our 2015 Chase predictions (Hint: Take 2)
Power Rankings are back!
The 2015 season is (officially) nearly upon us, so we figured there’s no better place to break out Power Rankings for the first time this year than by making it the space for our official, unchangeable and definitely 100 percent accurate Chase predictions.
Here are the 16 drivers we think will make the Chase in 2015. The top four are our final four and the other 12 are who we think will be Nos. 5-16 after the season. Let’s get to it.
1. Brad Keselowski: Title No. 2 for team No. 2? That’s where we are leaning. Remember, he had the most wins in the Cup Series last year (6), one more than 2014 Sprint Cup Series champion Kevin Harvick (5). However, here is a possible reason to take caution. Other than Jimmie Johnson (three times), no driver since 2006 who tallied the most wins in a Sprint Cup season has equaled or improved his finish in the points standings the following season. Keselowski is in that group, as he and Denny Hamlin tied Johnson for the circuit lead in wins in 2012. Though, yes, it’s hard to repeat as a champion.
If Keselowski gets to a final four, we like he and crew chief Paul Wolfe in a winner-take-all format. And we’re going to go out on a limb and say while Brad may still be considered the antagonist in the Cup Series story at the end of the season, there won’t be any prolonged public conflicts in 2015.
Bovada odds for the title: 8/1
2. Carl Edwards: Here’s to the third straight year of a driver with a new team being a Chase contender. If Edwards gets off to a hot start in 2015 you’re going to quickly lose count of all the comparisons to Matt Kenseth’s 2013 with Joe Gibbs Racing. Will Edwards win seven races like Kenseth did in 2013? No. But he’s going to be faster than he was last year, and we saw how consistent he can be.
Bovada odds for the title: 10/1
3. Jimmie Johnson: The six-time champion has had his two worst Sprint Cup seasons in the past four years. Is Johnson in the midst of a career swoon? Pardon us as we giggle from typing a low-grade television news teaser there. No, he’s not. Yeah, 2014 wasn’t a good season for Johnson as his Chase finish would have been (relatively) porous with either the old or new format. But we’re not going to say it’s the sign of any sort of trend.
Bovada odds for the title: 13/2
4. Kevin Harvick: Can Harvick be the first non-Johnson to repeat as champion since Jeff Gordon? We don’t dislike his chances. But just ask Joey Logano about the crazy stuff that can happen to take away your title shot in a one-race format. If these four drivers make the final race, it’s truly a toss-up between the four.
Bovada odds for the title: 15/2
5. Jeff Gordon: What’s a bigger storyline at Homestead? Gordon’s possible final race or the championship? Sure, they’re married together if the four-time champion is in the final four, but if he’s not, he’ll be a close second to the title chase, especially depending on the drivers racing for the championship. Bold prediction time. Gordon wins at least one of the following: the Daytona 500, All-Star Race, Coca-Cola 600, Brickyard 400, Southern 500 or the Sprint Cup title.
Bovada odds for the title: 15/2
6. Matt Kenseth: Yeah, this was the only JGR team that didn’t get a win in 2014. But it was also the only JGR team that kept the driver and crew chief together. Why? Because Kenseth had 22 top-10 finishes, four more than Denny Hamlin and seven more than Kyle Busch. Expect more of the same in 2015, except with a win or two.
Bovada odds for the title: 10/1
7. Joey Logano: Being eliminated from the cahse before the final race shouldn’t be seen as a step backwards for Logano. Unless he struggles all year and doesn’t make it out of the first round. If he gets to round two or round three and has a win or two in 2015, it’s a continuation of the foundation that was built last year. Logano is going to win a title, and it’s going to happen sooner rather than later.
Bovada odds for the title: 9/1
8. Kyle Busch: Is Logano taking the “is going to win a title, and it’s going to happen sooner rather than later” mantle from Busch? It’s a fair question to ask, though title expectations have also been heaped on Busch without steady consistency. He’s finished in the top five of the standings twice, and those finishes happened six years apart. If the new rules package mimics the way the Xfinity Series cars drive, don’t be surprised if this is the year Busch is a true challenger for the title.
Bovada odds for the title: 10/1
9. Denny Hamlin: Hamlin snuck through the Chase more than Ryan Newman did. He was the guy who was the epitome of avoiding bad finishes throughout the Chase. Can Hamlin be in the final four again? Yes. Can he be the guy who finishes fourth among the Gibbs cars? Yes to that too. But you can answer yes for any of the four JGR drivers to that question. How the team adapts to an extra car in 2015 will be a focal point, especially if there are struggles.
Bovada odds for the title: 14/1
10. Tony Stewart: Smoke back? He’s the pick for the 2015 Daytona 500, which would guarantee a spot in the Chase. He’s back to being ornery (see the weight issue during Unlimited practice) and aggressive (he had a point to prove in the first part of the Unlimited and ran near the front before being crashed). Stewart is going to win a race in 2015. Will week-to-week consistency follow?
Bovada odds for the title: 22/1
11. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: If Junior finishes outside the top 10, it’s got to be the crew chief change, right? Sigh. Even if it’s not, it’ll be Junior Nation’s most overanalyzed aspect of the 2015 season. Junior’s going to be good again and he’s going to win a race again. It’s just a matter of not having a misstep int he Chase.
Bovada odds for the title: 10/1
12. Kurt Busch: 2015 sleeper? 2015 sleeper. Busch’s partnership with Tony Gibson was fruitful at the end of the season and don’t act surprised if he’s a serious contender for the title. The wild card, of course, is any pending action from the Delaware attorney general’s office, but we won’t assume anything at this point. Busch’s 2014 roller coaster evens out this year.
Bovada odds for the title: 25/1
13. Kyle Larson: If we’re presuming that Larson wins a race this year, where does it happen? We’ll take the easy way out and say Auto Club Speedway, where he won his first Xfinity Series race last year and closed in a hurry in the Cup Series. The worn out pavement suits his driving style as he can wheel the car up near the wall and zip around everyone, a la Kyle Busch did in 2013 to win.
Bovada odds for the title: 16/1
14. Kasey Kahne: Will Kahne once again be the fourth car in terms of performance at Hendrick? Will he need to win to get into the Chase or sneak in on points? Will Keith Rodden’s return to the team be the magic elixir the No. 5 needs? Notice how one of the questions we’re not asking is about Kahne’s long-term future at Hendrick Motorsports. That’s a big positive. He finished fourth in 2012 but the big year for Kahne at HMS could still be to come.
Bovada odds for the title: 25/1
15. Clint Bowyer: At Daytona media days, Bowyer said he figured consistency would be enough to get in the Chase in 2014. It didn’t happen, so now he’s all about the wins. The truth is somewhere in the middle, and Bowyer likely knows it. The No. 15 was consistent last year, but consistently meh. If Bowyer ups the performance without a win, a Chase berth isn’t impossible.
Bovada odds for the title: 40/1
16. Ryan Newman: What’s more indicative of Ryan Newman’s chances in 2015? His first 26 races of 2014 where he top-15’d the field like crazy and made the Chase or his final 10 where he was a serious contender for the title despite not winning a race? If it’s the latter, move Newman up seven or eight spots in this ranking.
Bovada odds for the title: 40/1
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Nick Bromberg is the editor of From The Marbles on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter!
