SEC Preview: Is it Alabama and everyone else?
The SEC enters the 2016 season as the nation’s best conference (again) thanks to reigning national champion Alabama, which is ranked No. 1 in the preseason polls. The conference has four teams ranked in the top 11 of the AP Top 25.
While Alabama is clearly the favorite — and the favorite to repeat as national champion — there are several other teams that could challenge for the top spot.
Here’s a look at how the Dr. Saturday crew thinks the SEC could play out this season.
Offensive Player of the Year
Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU
Defensive Player of the Year
Myles Garrett, DE, Texas A&M
Newcomer Player of the Year
Jacob Eason, QB, Georgia
SEC WEST (in predicted order of finish)
Alabama
2015 record: 14-1
2015 finish: 1st West
Overview: Alabama, coming off its third national title in five years, is poised for another national championship run behind a defense that should be as good or better than it was a year ago. If there’s an issue with the Tide, it’s at quarterback. Coach Nick Saban hasn’t picked a starter and reports out of camp aren’t exactly glowing. But Alabama doesn’t need a star, it just needs a game manager to complement the slew of talent on both sides of the ball.
Best-case scenario: The Tide win back-to-back national championships for the second time since 2011-12 and coach Nick Saban continues to pad his resume as the greatest college football coach ever.
Worst-case scenario: The Tide struggle at USC and lose at Ole Miss in the opening conference game derailing their national championship hopes.
Predicted 2016 conference record: 8-0
LSU
2015 record: 9-3
2015 finish: 3rd West
Overview: The 2015 season had an odd ending for the Tigers with coach Les Miles on the brink of being fired and then saved at the last minutes thanks to a win against Texas A&M. He’ll be on the hot seat again, but his team returns 17 starters and should be a candidate for the College Football Playoff.
Best-case scenario: LSU rallies around Miles, makes its way to the College Football Playoff, Miles gets a contract extension and star running back Leonard Fournette ends up in New York.
Worst-case scenario: LSU falters in the season opener against Wisconsin and the season derails early. The Tigers end up with another nine-win season and Miles is shown the door.
Predicted 2016 conference record: 7-1
Ole Miss
2015 record: 10-3
2015 finish: 2nd West
Overview: Ole Miss does not have the easiest conference schedule with an early contest against Alabama and later at LSU. But the Rebels do return the conference’s best quarterback in Chad Kelly and a slew of other offensive talent. The defense took some major losses in the NFL draft, but still has a couple core of players that should continue the Land Shark tradition.
Best-case scenario: The Rebels gain confidence with a win against Florida State in the season opener and that leads to another unprecedented win against Alabama to kick off a stellar conference campaign.
Worst-case scenario: The Rebels defense doesn’t come together and it gets blasted in its first two conference games against Alabama and Georgia. Then, to add insult to injury, the NCAA comes down hard with sanctions against the program.
Predicted 2016 conference record: 6-2
Texas A&M
2015 record: 8-5
2015 finish: 6th West
Overview: Texas A&M had a disastrous offseason with its top two quarterbacks leaving and a slew of players getting into off-field trouble. Coach Kevin Sumlin is definitely on the hot seat and probably needs at least a 10-win season to keep his job. The defense should be the strength of this team, but all eyes will be on new offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone and transfer quarterback Trevor Knight.
Best-case scenario: Trevor Knight becomes the offensive savior for the Aggies and leads them to a 10-win season with a 6-2 conference record.
Worst-case scenario: Trevor Knight is not the offensive answer and A&M stumbles to a 4-4 or 3-5 conference campaign, which results in Sumlin losing his job.
Predicted 2016 conference record: 5-3
Arkansas
2015 record: 8-5
2015 finish: 4th West
Overview: Arkansas lost a lot of its offense from a year ago, an offense that frankly contributed to its eight wins when the defense let it down. Austin Allen, brother of former starter Brandon Allen, will be the starting quarterback and the Razorbacks will hope to get production out of running backs Kody Walker, who suffered a broken foot midway through spring drills, and Rawleigh Williams, who is coming off neck surgery. Defensively, the Razorbacks return nine starters, but the defense will have to be better against a tough schedule.
Best-case scenario: The Arkansas defense reverts back to its 2014 self and becomes the strength of the team, which gives the offense a little time to mature and come into its own by the middle of the season.
Worst-case scenario: The defense is as bad as it was a year ago and Arkansas is once again forced to get into shootouts to win games. However, with a lot of new offensive pieces, the breaks don’t go the same way as they did last year and the progress coach Bret Bielema has made in his three seasons is erased.
Predicted 2016 conference record: 3-5
Auburn
2015 record: 7-6
2015 finish: 7th West
Overview: There were high expectations for Auburn a year ago and the Tigers never lived up to the hype. Jeremy Johnson, who was supposed to be the savior at quarterback, was one of the worst in the league. And now the Tigers come into 2016 with a similar dilemma. They haven’t chosen a quarterback, the receiving corps and young and unproven, and the defense will be trying to rebuild under new coordinator Kevin Steele.
Best-case scenario: Auburn finally has a steady quarterback and the offense is better than anyone could have anticipated. The defense does just enough to keep the Tigers competitive and they win six conference games.
Worst-case scenario: Quarterback play is inconsistent, the defense has trouble adapting to Kevin Steele’s scheme and the Tigers are in the same position as they were a year ago.
Predicted 2016 conference record: 3-5
Mississippi State
2015 record: 9-4
2015 finish: 6th West
Overview: It can’t be understated how much quarterback Dak Prescott meant to the Bulldogs and how much he willed them to some of their wins, especially last year. His presence will be missed and Mississippi State will have to find a way to not only fill his position, but also his leadership. Nick Fitzgerald is the presumed starter and he’ll be counted on for rushing yards too since the running backs struggled mightily last season. Defensively, the Bulldogs have an entirely new staff and are learning a 3-4 scheme. There are going to be bumps, especially in the toughest division in the country.
Best-case scenario: The best Mississippi State can hope for is perhaps picking off some wins late in the season once the group is seasoned, but the overall conference schedule is not kind.
Worst-case scenario: The Bulldogs could go winless in conference play. It’s unlikely, but certainly not out of the question in a tough SEC West.
Predicted 2016 conference record: 2-6
SEC EAST (in predicted order of finish)
Tennessee
2015 record: 9-4
2015 finish: 3rd East
Overview: There were high expectations for the Vols a year ago and the nine-win season was a bit of a disappointment. But the Vols return 17 starters from a year ago, including quarterback Joshua Dobbs and running backs Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara, who might combine to be the best backfield duo in the conference. But if the Vols want to compete for the SEC title, they’re going to need to get more out of the passing game, which ranked 92nd in the country a year ago.
Best-case scenario: Tennessee lives up to its potential and wins the SEC East and gives Alabama a game in the SEC title game.
Worst-case scenario: Anything less than a SEC East title would be disappointing for this program considering how many players are returning.
Predicted 2016 conference record: 6-2
Georgia
2015 record: 10-3
2015 finish: 3rd East
Overview: It’s going to be strange watching Georgia football without Mark Richt roaming the sidelines, but this is a new era between the hedges. New coach Kirby Smart inherits a team that has 14 returning starters and has a potential sensation in freshman quarterback Jacob Eason. The Bulldogs also get running back Nick Chubb back from a knee injury to complement Sony Michel, who had a 1,000-yard season last year. The biggest question for this team will be its defensive front seven, but the secondary should be one of the best in the conference.
Best-case scenario: Georgia becomes a more balanced offense with a competent passing attack and reverts back to the team it was just a few years ago. It’s not out of the question for this team to win the SEC East.
Worst-case scenario: Georgia fails to get its passing offense going and the offense is one-dimensional once again. The team sputters in coach Kirby Smart’s first season and fans begin to wonder whether dumping Richt was really the right move.
Predicted 2016 conference record: 5-3
Florida
2015 record: 10-4
2015 finish: 1st East
Overview: Florida came out of nowhere last season to shock the SEC East in coach Jim McElwain’s first season. But things did unravel during the second half of the year after quarterback Will Grier was suspended for PEDs and the offense became almost nonexistent. The Gators hope they’ve solved that problem with transfer Luke Del Rio under center, but there are still a lot of questions with the receivers and on the offensive line. However, the Florida defense, which was one of the best in the country, should be good again this year.
Best-case scenario: The defense that essentially carried the Gators to the SEC title game combines with a more potent offense and Florida goes on to repeat as SEC East champions.
Worst-case scenario: The offense is no better under Del Rio and it sputters the way it did a year ago. The defense is good enough to win the Gators some games, but without a solid defense, they struggle in conference play.
Predicted 2016 conference record: 5-3
Missouri
2015 record: 5-7
2015 finish: 6th East
Overview: Let’s face it, the Missouri offense was an absolute mess last season. It ranked 124th in total offense and 126th in scoring offense with just 13.6 points per game. The defense is really the only reason the Tigers were even mildly competitive. New coach Barry Odom will have to get this team confidence early and help quarterback Drew Lock gets some points on the board. Oklahoma transfer Alex Ross should help at running back and the Tigers have a ton of receivers just not ones with a lot of experience.
Best-case scenario: Missouri finds the offensive prowess it was once known for and starts putting points on the board in bunches. If the defense can play as well as it did a year ago, Mizzou could be looking at a five-win conference season.
Worst-case scenario: The offense is as bad or worse than it was a year ago and fans have to slog through a series of 3-0 and 6-0 games.
Predicted 2016 conference record: 3-5
Kentucky
2015 record: 5-7
2015 finish: 5th East
Overview: Kentucky got off to a fast start last season winning four of its first five games, but then conference play got into full swing and things took a turn for the worst quite quickly. The Wildcats won one of its final seven games and that was against Charlotte. The offense returns nine starters from a year ago, but the Wildcats must rebuild on defense. They also need to get some confidence. It’s clear there’s talent there, however they need to put together solid games on both sides of the ball on a more consistent basis.
Best-case scenario: The offense led by quarterback Drew Barker finds new life under a new offensive coordinator and starts consistently putting points on the board. Also, the defense, which is replacing a lot of starters, finds success against a potent Southern Miss team to start the season and that gives them confidence against Florida the following weekend.
Worst-case scenario: Things go south early for the Wildcats and the mistakes from a year ago begin to creep up. Rumors starts to swirl about coach Mark Stoops’ job and distraction derails the season.
Predicted 2016 conference record: 3-5
Vanderbilt
2015 record: 4-8
2015 finish: 4th East
Overview: Vanderbilt wasn’t good last year, but it was definitely better. Now, coach Derek Mason has to find a way to continue to build on that success and make Vanderbilt relevant in the SEC again. Quarterback Kyle Shurmur, who started five of the final six games last year, will be the starter in 2016. However, the offense will be anchored by running back Ralph Webb, who had more than 1,100 yards in his sophomore season. Defensively, the Commodores responded well to the new 3-4 alignment and that should, once again, be the strength of the team.
Best-case scenario: The Commodores need to keep getting better. In Mason’s two seasons, the Commodores have won seven total games, but they won one more last year than they did the year before. If he can get Vandy to six wins, that would be a huge accomplishment.
Worst-case scenario: Vanderbilt is at that point where it could either keep moving forward or it could quickly slip back to a three-win team. If that happens, Vanderbilt might have to think about going in a different direction with its coaching staff.
Predicted 2016 conference record: 2-6
South Carolina
2015 record: 3-9
2015 finish: 7th East
Overview: There was no more disappointing SEC East team last year than South Carolina. It wasn’t that long ago that the Gamecocks were challenging for division titles and now it’s toiling in the basement. This season probably won’t be much better under new coach Will Muschamp. He was already hit with bad luck when all of his best prospects at quarterback were either hurt or transferred during the spring. Similarly, injuries have already started to pick away at what could have been a decent defense. This is going to be a tough year for South Carolina and fan are going to have to be patient.
Best-case scenario: Somehow South Carolina is able to overcome some bad luck and put a decently competitive team on the field. It beats teams with similar struggles — Missouri, Kentucky, Vanderbilt — and finishes this season with three conference wins.
Worst-case scenario: For South Carolina, the only thing that could be worse than finishing with one conference win is going winless and that’s a very real possibility. We’re going to learn a lot about the Gamecocks early with conference games against Vanderbilt and Mississippi State to open the season.
Predicted 2016 conference record: 1-7
Graham Watson is the editor of Dr. Saturday on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email her at [email protected] or follow her on Twitter! Follow @YahooDrSaturday
