2016 Fantasy Football Preseason Takeaway: Lions passing game roars
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Matthew Stafford‘s official stat line from Thursday’s game: 8 of 11 for 113 yards.
What Matthew Stafford’s stat line from Thursday’s game should have been: 11 of 12 for at least 120 yards and a touchdown.
Playing on three drives, Stafford was red hot. He played with a cool, comfortable demeanor despite a leaky offensive line. He threw receivers open and got aggressive downfield. If not for an end-zone drop by Golden Tate and a bobble by Theo Riddick, Stafford’s only incompletion was on a mid-range sideline pass to Marvin Jones that was thrown a smidge late.
You couldn’t ask for a more encouraging start from Stafford, who appears to be at the helm of what looks like a no-huddle style of offense that could result in tons of pass attempts.
That should be just fine with Stafford, who averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game in 2013-2015 (and set the NFL single-season record for pass attempts with 727 in 2012). On the strength of those passes he’s had at least 4,250 yards in each of the last five seasons.
Touchdowns are a different story. Only twice in Stafford’s half-decade of frenzied passing has he eclipsed 30 touchdowns. In one of those years, Calvin Johnson had 16 touchdowns; in the other, Johnson had nine. In fact, Johnson accounted for more than a third of Stafford’s 165 career scores.
If Stafford wasn’t a mortal lock for 30 passing touchdowns when he had Megatron, how in the world can he be considered a lock for 30 passing touchdowns now?!
If it happens, it’ll come on the hands of Marvin Jones. You can already tell from the preseason he and Stafford have developed some serious chemistry. On the lone incompletion that was on Stafford, he took a pre-snap cue from Jones based on the coverage on him and didn’t hesitate to fire. It wound up being an incompletion, but it’s proof positive Stafford already has confidence in his new receiver.
The thinking is that Jones will pick up most of the 149 targets Johnson had last season. If Jones’ career target rate of 62 percent holds true and he get around 120 targets, we’re talking about 75 receptions. Jones averaged 12.6 yards per catch in his first season coming off foot surgery — if that holds true then he’s a candidate for about 950 yards. Given Jones’ track record, a minimum of six touchdowns is a fair expectation.
That’s Jones’ statistical floor — 75-950-6. It puts him in No. 3 Fantasy receiver territory. The end of Round 7 isn’t too soon for him.
Where does that leave Golden Tate? Wasn’t he supposed to be the lead dog? Maybe in targets and receptions, but everything else points to Tate returning to his role as a quality short-yardage option with the potential to break a long catch-and-run. Don’t assume he’ll finish with better yardage numbers than Jones, though he should have the edge on receptions. So he’s a No. 3 Fantasy receiver, too. Expect him to go a round higher than Jones, especially in PPR.
Such is life for receivers who are excellent as No. 2 options but forced to serve as co-No. 1 targets.
What about Stafford? No doubt, he has the potential for a big season, but so do a lot of other quarterbacks. There are at least 15 signal-callers with 4,200-yard potential, most of whom also have 30-touchdown potential. You’re taking a leap of faith highlighting Stafford to exceed those numbers when he’s struggled to do so in the past.
Stafford’s in the group of passers you target late in drafts as part of a two-headed platoon. Getting him a round or two after getting Ben Roethlisberger, Andy Dalton, Tony Romo, Tyrod Taylor and others makes sense. That way you can play the matchups between two quality Fantasy starters until one emerges as an obvious starter.
