2016 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: Sleepers 3.0 – CBSSports.com
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This is the third installment of my sleepers column, and the first two were based on player evaluation with little to do with Average Draft Position. But that changes now. This is all relative to ADP.
With that in mind, we’re looking at players being drafted after the first 100 overall picks, and I’m going by the ADP from FantasyPros to hopefully eliminate any bias from CBS Sports users who rely on my rankings. But before we look ahead, let’s take a quick look back.
Here are the 12 players that I highlighted in Sleepers 1.0 in early April.
- Ryan Tannehill , QB, Miami Dolphins
- Jay Cutler , QB, Chicago Bears
- Duke Johnson , RB, Cleveland Browns
- Alfred Morris , RB, Dallas Cowboys
- Charles Sims , RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Tevin Coleman , RB, Atlanta Falcons
- Kevin White , WR, Chicago Bears
- Phillip Dorsett , WR, Indianapolis Colts
- Dorial Green-Beckham , WR, Tennessee Titans
- Marvin Jones , WR, Detroit Lions
- Austin Seferian-Jenkins , TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Eric Ebron , TE, Detroit Lions
And here are the 12 players I featured in Sleepers 2.0 in mid-June.
- Tony Romo , QB, Dallas Cowboys
- Philip Rivers , QB, San Diego Chargers
- Frank Gore , RB, Indianapolis Colts
- Karlos Williams , RB, Buffalo Bills
- Paul Perkins , RB, New York Giants
- Kenneth Dixon , RB, Baltimore Ravens
- Jerick McKinnon , RB, Minnesota Vikings
- Sterling Shepard , WR, New York Giants
- Corey Coleman , WR, Cleveland Browns
- Chris Hogan , WR, Buffalo Bills
- Willie Snead , WR, New Orleans Saints
- Dwayne Allen , TE, Indianapolis Colts
The players I’m still bullish on from these lists include Johnson, Sims, Coleman, White, Dorsett, Jones, Romo, Rivers, Gore, McKinnon, Shepard, Coleman, Hogan, Snead and Allen. But based on ADP, the only ones who still qualify as sleepers under our criteria of pick No. 100 overall or later are Romo (No. 100), Sims (No. 113), Tevin Coleman (No. 122), McKinnon (No. 164), Dorsett (No. 157), Corey Coleman (No. 105), Hogan (No. 184), Snead (No. 117) and Allen (No. 174).
Let’s see how these players stack up to Sleepers 3.0.
| CMP %: 67.2 | YDS: 4,262 | TD: 32 | INT: 13 | RUSH YDS: 159 | RUSH TD: 1 |
Stafford was an easy quarterback to write off when Calvin Johnson retired this offseason. After all, how could Stafford still post quality stats, let alone be a starting option, with his best player no longer on the field? But the Detroit Lions have done a nice job putting talented weapons around Stafford to help replace Johnson, including the additions of Marvin Jones and Anquan Boldin to go with Golden Tate , Eric Ebron , Theo Riddick and Ameer Abdullah . And I think Stafford will benefit from an up-tempo offense under coordinator Jim Bob Cooter, which could lead to plenty of volume. Stafford was No. 7 last year in pass attempts with 592, and he’s no stranger to being a leader in this category. Stafford was fifth in pass attempts in 2014 with 602, fourth in 2013 with 634 and first in 2012 with 727. He could be No. 1 in this category again, which would result in plenty of positive production, and I would draft him as a low-end starting option in all leagues.
| ATT: 185 | YDS: 706 | TD: 4 | YPC: 3.8 | REC: 19 | REC YDS: 182 | REC TD: 1 |
Duke Johnson should be the first Cleveland Browns running back drafted because he’s a better dual-threat option than Crowell, but don’t discount Crowell having a prominent role this year. Coach Hue Jackson would love to recreate what he had as the offensive coordinator with the Cincinnati Bengals when Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard were at their best, and Crowell definitely is the Hill clone in this comparison. Forget what Hill delivered last season with his 3.6 yards per carry, he still had 223 carries and worked at the goal line, delivering 11 touchdowns. It would be shocking if game flow allowed him the chance for that kind of workload, especially the goal-line opportunities, but he has a decent track record when given extended touches. He had seven games last season with at least 12 carries, and he scored double digits in Fantasy points in a standard league in five of them. He did that in three of six games in 2014, and we expect Jackson to give him enough touches to make him worth his ADP. The Browns offense might scare you off, but you might be glad you gambled on Crowell with a pick in Round 10, especially in standard leagues.
| ATT: 70 | YDS: 313 | TD: 1 | YPC: 4.5 | REC: 47 | REC YDS: 388 | REC TD: 2 |
I’m nervous about Matt Forte this season since he’s 30 and changing teams for the first time after eight seasons with the Chicago Bears . He also has more than 2,000 career carries and 2,500 total touches, which could catch up to him. He’s already dealing with a hamstring injury in training camp, which has kept him out of practice. That has allowed Powell the chance to work with the starters, and he did well for the New York Jets last season in a timeshare with Chris Ivory . He only appeared in 11 games in 2015 but scored at least seven Fantasy points in a standard league in seven of them, including seven games with at least four catches. Powell and Forte have a similar skillset, but Powell’s price tag is much cheaper in Round 11. If Forte were to miss extended time due to injury, Powell could be a Top 20 running back in the majority of leagues, especially PPR. And even if Forte is healthy we still expect Powell to be heavily involved. He’s worth drafting with a late-round pick whenever possible.
| ATT: 268 | YDS: 1,261 | TD: 11 | YPC: 4.7 | REC: 37 | REC YDS: 318 |
Booker should beat out Ronnie Hillman for the No. 2 running back job in Denver behind C.J. Anderson , and that’s a good role to have should Anderson struggle or get hurt. Anderson battled foot and ankle problems in 2015, which allowed Hillman to be a top-20 Fantasy running back in standard leagues. We hope Anderson can play 16 games and deliver as a top-tier Fantasy option, but Booker could produce at a high level if given a chance. The former Utah star, who was selected by the Denver Broncos in the fourth round of the NFL Draft, averaged 1,387 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns in college the past two seasons, with 77 catches over that span. Denver coach Gary Kubiak’s system is great for running backs and you always want a piece of a potentially explosive backfield. If you spend an early round pick on Anderson (Round 3 is appropriate in most formats) then you should invest in a late-round pick on Booker as the handcuff. And he also presents standalone value if the Denver Broncos give him the chance to work in tandem with Anderson during the year.
| ATT: 54 | YDS: 243 | TD: 0 | YPC: 4.5 | REC: 3 | REC YDS: 16 |
There are some Fantasy owners getting overexcited about Michael following the first preseason game and getting down on Thomas Rawls , who didn’t play against the Kansas City Chiefs and is coming back from last year’s ankle injury. The Seattle Seahawks are just being cautious with Rawls, who remains the starter and is worth drafting toward the end of Round 3 or beginning of Round 4. But Michael is doing a great job taking advantage of the opportunity for extended playing time (seven carries for 44 yards against Kansas City), and he’s clearly earned the trust of coach Pete Carroll. After bouncing around the league in 2015 (he went from Seattle to Dallas to Washington and back to the Seattle Seahawks ), Michael was a savior of sorts when Rawls and Marshawn Lynch were hurt. He had 16 carries for 84 yards in Week 15 against Cleveland, 17 carries for 102 yards in Week 17 at Arizona and 21 carries for 70 yards in the Wild Card win at Minnesota. Rawls would need to miss extended time with an injury for Michael to have increased Fantasy value, but Rawls runs with a violent nature, similar to Lynch. Michael has become the handcuff in Seattle and he’s worth drafting if you select Rawls or if you just want a lottery ticket on the end of your bench.
| ATT: 129 | YDS: 708 | TD: 3 | YPC: 5.5 | REC: 37 | REC YDS: 280 | REC TD: 2 |
Ferguson failed to impress in his NFL debut in the preseason opener against Buffalo with eight carries for 3 yards, but don’t let that ruin your thoughts of him even though he was starting with Gore given the night off to rest. Andrew Luck also didn’t play, and as we learned in 2015, this Colts offense is awful without Luck, which you could obviously say about most teams if they lost a star quarterback due to injury. When Luck is healthy and active, this offense should be among the most explosive in the NFL, which is why Gore has the chance for a rebound year. But he’s also 33, and despite a good track record of staying healthy, you have to fear a potential breakdown, especially if the Colts give him a heavy workload early in the season. Ferguson, an undrafted rookie free agent from Illinois, is the handcuff and could play a prominent role for Fantasy owners if given increased touches. He proved to be a dual threat in college with at least 29 catches every year, and he averaged over 5.0 yards per carry in his final three seasons. Like Michael, this is a lottery ticket worth investing in.
I’m cheating a little bit with Diggs on this list since his ADP can clearly rise and make him ineligible for our criteria, but this is also me making a public apology to any Fantasy owner planning to target him this year. I downgraded Diggs too far with the addition of rookie Laquon Treadwell , but Diggs has remained the No. 1 receiver throughout training camp and should be Teddy Bridgewater ‘s top option in the passing game. We saw last season as a rookie that Diggs can be a playmaker when he had five games with at least nine targets and had at least 87 receiving yards in four of them. His value is higher in PPR leagues since it’s hard to envision a Minnesota Vikings receiver scoring double digits in touchdowns with Bridgewater under center and Adrian Peterson in the backfield, but he won’t kill you in standard leagues as a No. 4 receiver with a late-round pick. And the good thing is this isn’t a Minnesota Vikings receiver being hyped up like Cordarrelle Patterson or Charles Johnson in recent years. Just let Diggs fall in your lap, and you should be rewarded with positive production.
We’re combining the top San Francisco 49ers receivers because both have the opportunity to be useful this season under coach Chip Kelly. Let’s start with Smith, who was an expected disaster last year when he signed with San Francisco as a free agent. He had career lows in catches (33) and yards (663), and he tied his career low in touchdowns (four). But Kelly has a good track record with his No. 1 receiver, and Smith should play that role as the senior member of this group. DeSean Jackson in 2013 (No. 9 Fantasy receiver in standard leagues), Jeremy Maclin in 2014 (No. 9) and Jordan Matthews last year (No. 20) averaged 132 targets for 84 catches, 1,212 yards and nine touchdowns, and Matthews was the only receiver who failed to gain at least 1,300 yards under Kelly. I don’t expect Smith to approach those stats, but that’s why he’s being drafted in Round 11. And Ellington might be better than Smith based on value and where he lines up. Whereas Smith has traditionally made most of his plays down the field, Ellington should be a top target for likely starter Blaine Gabbert near the line of scrimmage. He’s gotten solid reviews in training camp, and he could be a sneaky steal in PPR leagues as he enters his third year in the NFL.
Thomas isn’t expected to start for the New Orleans Saints with Brandin Cooks and Snead locked into their roles, and he should be behind Coby Fleener and Mark Ingram as well for targets. But that doesn’t mean Thomas will be shut out, and Drew Brees knows how to spread the ball around to his talented playmakers. Thomas has been getting rave reviews in training camp, and he showed off in the preseason opener with four catches for 67 yards on six targets against the New England Patriots . He can still be productive as the third receiver, and it’s never a bad idea to spend a late-round pick on a promising pass catcher in a pass-friendly offense. And if something were to happen to Cooks or Snead then Thomas could become a star. In a run-based offense at Ohio State, Thomas had 113 career catches for 1,602 yards and 18 touchdowns over 27 starts, and he dropped only five of 157 targets. If he carves out a role as expected for the New Orleans Saints as a rookie then his production could be promising, which is why he warrants a selection likely earlier than his Round 12 ADP.
It’s easy to expect that Kelvin Benjamin will come off last year’s torn ACL and slide back into his No. 1 role, but the reports through training camp and the first preseason game haven’t been promising, especially in regard to his conditioning. It could lead to Benjamin being a bust at his Round 3 price tag at No. 35 overall in ADP. Meanwhile, the reports for Funchess have been glowing, and an ESPN report suggests Funchess could be Carolina’s best receiver this year. We need to see it to believe it after he had just 31 catches for 473 yards and five touchdowns as a rookie last season, but he’s clearly worth the gamble with a pick in Round 14. Cam Newton has gotten at least nine touchdowns from one receiver each of the past two years with Benjamin in 2014 and Ted Ginn last year, and we’re hopeful Benjamin can be that guy in 2016. But if Funchess somehow does prove to be the best receiver for the Carolina Panthers this season then you’ll be thrilled that you drafted him with a late-round pick in all leagues.
Let’s go through the checklist with Baltimore Ravens receivers following the first preseason game. Steve Smith ? He’s coming off last year’s Achilles injury. Breshard Perriman? He’s yet to make it a full week in practice in two years in the NFL. Mike Wallace ? His best days are likely behind him. That leaves Aiken as the de facto No. 1 receiver for the Baltimore Ravens , and he did well in that role last season after Smith was injured in Week 8. In his final nine games, Aiken had 56 catches for 673 yards and three touchdowns. If you project that over 16 games, he would have finished with 100 catches for 1,196 yards and five touchdowns. We doubt he reaches that kind of statistical high, especially if Smith returns as expected. But going into the season you should target Aiken as the No. 1 receiver in Baltimore, which is a good option with a pick in Round 14. And even if Smith is ready for Week 1 and Perriman does make a miraculous recovery from his knee injury, we still expect Aiken to play a prominent role for the Ravens this year. He can potentially be a No. 3 receiver or flex option in PPR leagues in 2016.
| TAR: 80 | REC: 53 | YDS: 439 | TD: 3 |
The New England Patriots have been looking for a second tight end to pair with Rob Gronkowski since parting ways with Aaron Hernandez following the 2012 season. Hernandez was a vital part of New England’s offense with 113 targets in 14 games in 2011 and 83 targets in 10 games in 2012, but since then guys like Timothy Wright and Scott Chandler haven’t come close to being prominent options in the passing game. Bennett could change that given his history as a No. 1 tight end for the Bears, and he was a Top 10 tight end in 2013 and 2014 with at least 96 targets each year. We doubt he gets that much work with everyone healthy since New England has a lot of mouths to feed on offense, but he could find a way to get 55 catches for 626 yards and five touchdowns like he did with the New York Giants in 2012. That would make him a borderline No. 1 tight end in the majority of leagues, and he is definitely a streaming option once Tom Brady is back from his suspension in Week 5. Bennett also presents the rare scenario of the handcuff tight end because he could be a superstar if Gronkowski was out for any extended period of time.
Other sleepers to consider …
- Vincent Jackson , WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – ADP: No. 131 overall
- Sammie Coates , WR, Pittsburgh Steelers – ADP: No. 156 overall
- DeAndre Washington , RB, Oakland Raiders – ADP: No. 160 overall
- Mohamed Sanu , WR, Atlanta Falcons – ADP: No. 189 overall
- Spencer Ware , RB, Kansas City Chiefs – ADP: No. 198 overall
- Tyler Boyd , WR, Cincinnati Bengals – ADP: No. 210 overall
- Clive Walford , TE, Oakland Raiders – ADP: No. 231 overall
- Shaun Draughn , RB, San Francisco 49ers – ADP: No. 263 overall
- Vance McDonald , TE, San Francisco 49ers – ADP: No. 283 overall
- Tajae Sharpe , WR, Tennessee Titans – ADP: No. 313 overall
- Tyrell Williams , WR, San Diego Chargers – No ADP
- Kenjon Barner , RB, Philadelphia Eagles – No ADP
