Dr. Saturday's preseason Top 25: 17-11
It’s that time of year again. With the college football season just around the corner, it’s time for the Dr. Saturday crew to unveil its preseason Top 25. We all know that once the games begin, things can change very quickly. Still, we thought we’d give our best guess heading into the 2016 season.
Click here for Nos. 25-18 in our preview.
No. 17 — USC
No pressure, Max Browne. The USC quarterback is the presumed starter — Trojans coach Clay Helton has said he’ll announce his Week 1 quarterback Sunday — and he inherits an offense that’s absolutely loaded.
How loaded? Browne, or Sam Darnold, will be the only offensive player who didn’t start in 2015. And with returning weapons like wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster (1,454 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns in 2015) and running backs Justin Davis (902 years) and Ronald Jones (987 yards), whoever starts at quarterback for the Trojans doesn’t have to carry the offense.
So what’s standing in the way between USC and a Pac-12 title game appearance? The defense and the schedule. USC returns five starters from 2015 and four are in the secondary. The pass defense should be great; can the Trojans stop the run? Plus, USC opens against Alabama, heads to Stanford, Utah, and UCLA while also hosting Notre Dame and Oregon. USC may be the Pac-12’s best hope for a two-loss College Football Playoff team.
No. 16 — Washington
Every year there’s a team projected to make a giant leap. Washington is that team in 2016. Here’s why. The Huskies went 7-6 in 2015 and three of those losses were by six points or fewer. With a couple breaks, Washington fans could probably convince themselves last season could have been a 9-4 or even 10-3 campaign (We won’t remind you of the Boise State opener, UW fans).
A highly-touted sophomore quarterback who shows flashes of excellence as a freshman is also appealing. Jake Browning fits that description. Browning completed 63 percent of his passes in 2014 and threw for 16 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Though if Washington does take a step forward, Browning needs to feast on more than just weak opponents. Nine of his touchdown passes and two of his three 300+ yard games came against Sacramento State, Utah State and Oregon State.
Browning’s 2015 supporting cast is largely back as well. UW returns 15 starters including RB Myles Gaskin, who ran for 1,302 yards in 2015. Safety Budda Baker is one of the best in the Pac-12 and four starters on the defensive front seven are back too.
We’ll find out pretty quickly about Washington’s standing in the Pac-12 North. The Huskies play Stanford (Sep. 30) and Oregon (Oct. 8) in back-to-back weeks.
No. 15 — Oregon
Speaking of Oregon, the Ducks will have a third starting quarterback in three seasons in 2016. And this year’s quarterback is also a graduate transfer from an FCS school.
Former Montana State QB Dakota Prukop is charged with following the example Vernon Adams set in 2015. And while it may be hard to remember because of Oregon’s relative struggles last season, Adams set a pretty high standard. He threw for 2,643 yards in the 10 games he played and had 26 touchdown passes to just six interceptions. It’s not out of the question to see Prukop approach Adams’ per game numbers given his production at Montana State. In two seasons at MSU, Prukop threw for 5,584 yards, 46 touchdowns and 16 interceptions and could be a Marcus Mariota-type threat on the ground. Prukop ran for 1,743 yards and 24 scores in 2014 and 2015.
Prukop will have some strong support too. Namely, RB Royce Freeman. He gets overshadowed by the likes of Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, Nick Chubb and others, but Freeman is one of the best backs in college football. He ran for 1,838 yards and 17 touchdowns in 2015. And Oregon’s offense has always been more ground than air-based anyway. If Freeman, RB Taj Griffin (570 yards) and Prukop can form a three-headed rushing monster, don’t be too surprised to see Oregon atop the Pac-12 North again with home games against both Washington and Stanford.
No. 14 — UCLA
The theme of the teens has been quarterbacks and it doesn’t change when talking about UCLA. Simply put, sophomore Josh Rosen’s performance will dictate the Bruins’ success in the Pac-12. Heck, it’s not a stretch to say he’s the most important player to any team in our top 25. What else do you expect from a player whose coach believes he could have gone No. 1 in the 2016 NFL draft if he was eligible?
Rosen (3,669 yards, 23 touchdowns and 11 interceptions), will need some help. Get ready to hear RB Soso Jamabo’s name a lot in 2016. Jamabo, another true freshman in 2015, averaged over 6 yards per carry on 66 carries as Paul Perkins’ backup in 2015. Perkins is gone to the NFL now, so now it’s up to Jamabo and Nate Starks (320 yards on 50 carries) to be the primary rushing source to take pressure off Rosen.
UCLA may miss Perkins the most in the passing game. He had 30 catches for 242 yards in 2015; more than wide receivers Kenneth Walker (231 yards) and Eldridge Massington (120 yards). Walker and Massington are UCLA’s two leading returning receivers.
The Bruins are our Pac-12 South favorites. Whether or not they’re CFP contenders may hinge on early road games against Texas A&M and BYU.
No. 13 — Michigan State
It was easy to doubt Michigan State heading into 2015. The Spartans had road games at both Michigan and Ohio State while the Wolverines were in the midst of their Harbaugh honeymoon and Ohio State was coming off a national title. So it seems pretty Michigan State that the Spartans enter the season at No. 13 in our preseason rankings (and behind both the Wolverines and Buckeyes) with their two Big Ten East rivals visiting East Lansing.
We’re at the point now where it’s not a question of if Michigan State will be good. But rather how good. It’s a given the defense, with linebacker Riley Bullough and three starters in the secondary returning, will be really good. Can the offense keep up?
Yes, QB Connor Cook is gone. In his place is Tyler O’Conner, who started the Spartans’ win at Ohio State in 2015. But perhaps more importantly, MSU is tasked with replacing receivers Aaron Burbridge and MacGarrett Kings, who accounted for 120 of the 244 completed passes in 2014. And the offensive line is replacing three starters, including top-10 pick Jack Conklin. The blueprint for Michigan State is familiar. It’s just a matter of how well it’s executed.
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No. 12 — Tennessee
Is it now or never for Tennessee? Of course that’s a hyperbolic question, but if Butch Jones’ team doesn’t live up to expectations in 2016, it’s fair to wonder if UT ever will with Jones in charge. UT has been a trendy upstart pick over the past two years on the heels of the recruiting classes Jones has brought in to Knoxville. Save for redshirt seniors, all of the player on Tennessee’s roster are Jones recruits. Now is the time.
Tennessee returns 17 starters, including eight on a defense that improved over the course of the 2015 season. Quarterback Josh Dobbs is back as well, and while he may be the best returning quarterback in the SEC East, he still needs to make strides as a passer to be considered the division’s best quarterback at the end of the season. We’re confident he can do that, and don’t be surprised if Alvin Kamara usurps Jalen Hurd as Tennessee’s No. 1 running back by the end of the season either. While Hurd’s yards per carry (4.6) was more than respectable, Kamara’s was even better (6.4) last season.
We’re going to have a pretty good idea about the Vols by the midway point of the season. UT hosts Florida, heads to Georgia and Texas A&M and hosts Alabama in four consecutive weeks before an off-week on Oct. 22. If UT gets through that stretch at 2-2 or better, the SEC East is its to lose.
No. 11 — Ole Miss
Does Ole Miss have the best chance of any team in the country to make the College Football Playoff with two losses? It’s not a crazy question. Yes, a lot would have to happen within the SEC and SEC West to have the Rebels in CFP discussion with multiple losses, But let’s consider Ole Miss’ schedule for a moment.
In addition to the standard inter-division games with Alabama and LSU, Ole Miss also draws Georgia from the SEC East. And opens the season against Florida State. Throw in the rest of the SEC East and a game against a Memphis team that beat the Rebels in 2015 and Ole Miss may have the toughest schedule in the country. If Ole Miss goes, say, 10-2, that’s at least two wins over those first four teams. It’s a stacked resume in the game of CFP chaos.
OK, back to reality. QB Chad Kelly is the best returning quarterback in the SEC and WR Damore’ea Stringfellow and TE Evan Engram return despite the loss of WR Laquon Treadwell. The biggest question for the Rebels may be on defense, where Robert Nkemdiche, Trae Elston, Mike Hilton and Denzel Nkemdiche all have to be replaced. While Robert Nkemdiche’s statistics weren’t what many Ole Miss fans thought they would be, opposing teams had to gameplay for him. Who is that player in 2016 for the Rebels?
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Nick Bromberg is the assistant editor of Dr. Saturday on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter!
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