Saves and Steals: Miller Time Is Over
After a few weeks of utter mayhem, the closer tiers were finally stable. The only “news” is the Indians continued use of Andrew Miller as a late-innings fireman. He’s so frequently used before the ninth inning that I’ve dropped him from the list of closers. We’ll discuss in more detail soon.
The closer leaderboard is topped by Jeurys Familia with 40 saves. Zach Britton has 37 with Kenley Jansen‘s 35 saves checking out in third overall. Over the last week, seven closers tied for the top mark with three saves apiece.
On the stolen base front, a month-long splurge from Billy Hamilton has placed him atop the standings with 51 steals. Jonathan Villar has 46 steals. Starling Marte – 41 steals – is the only other player anywhere 40 swipes. Incidentally, Hamilton fell four steals short of Jose Ramirez for the weekly lead. Ramirez stole a crazy seven bases in eight attempts. Rajai Davis took five in six tries with three others notching four bags.
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Tier 1: Elite (4)
Aroldis Chapman, Chicago Cubs
Dellin Betances, New York Yankees
Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
Zach Britton, Baltimore Orioles
Chapman pitched five times including two saves in yesterday’s doubleheader. Overall, he tallied three saves and seven strikeouts across four innings. The Cubs bullpen is coping with some injuries. Don’t be surprised to see Chapman take a few multi-inning opportunities. The Cubs do have a tidy 12.5 game lead in the NL Central so perhaps they’ll play it safe with their relief ace.
Betances also had a great week – three saves and eight strikeouts in four innings. He crossed the 100 strikeout threshold in the process. If there’s a blemish to his season, it’s an unusually high .363 BABIP. Sometimes that means a pitcher is throwing predictable middle-middle pitches. Other times, it’s just bad luck. We usually expect dominant relievers like Betances to post a BABIP below .300.
Jansen saw sporadic work this week. He tossed just one inning across two appearances. The first outing was a disaster. He was uncharacteristically wild in a non-save situation against the Phillies. Three runs scored on two walks, a single, and a bases clearing double. Jansen received a one-out save in his other appearance. Even with the blow up, he still has a 1.80 ERA on the season.
Britton’s name came up this week as a potential AL Cy Young contender in a wide open race. Britton hasn’t allowed a run since April, and his 37 saves are tops in the AL. Britton is very much a unique pitcher, combining solid strikeout skills with extreme ground ball and soft contact rates. This isn’t anything new. Check out how Britton blew his saves last season. He pretty much only fails via swinging bunts.
Tier 2: Nearly Elite (7)
Craig Kimbrel, Boston Red Sox
Edwin Diaz, Seattle Mariners
Ken Giles, Houston Astros
Roberto Osuna, Toronto Blue Jays
Kelvin Herrera, Kansas City Royals
Mark Melancon, Washington Nationals
Jeurys Familia, New York Mets
Last week, I bumped Kimbrel from the elite tier for the first time since I took over the column from Eno Sarris years ago. A recent knee injury and a four walk appearance had me worried about his health. After taking a couple days off, Boston used their relief ace on three of the last four days. He earned three saves and four strikeouts. Monday’s outing got off to a bumpy start though. I’ll move him back to the top tier with another strong week.
Diaz saved two in a pair of perfect innings. He “only” added two strikeouts. Given his 16.36 K/9, that’s practically a bad week. If he keeps pitching like this, he’ll be in the elite tier before long.
Herrera rebounded from a shaky early-August with two clean innings and one save. Wade Davis is making some progress in his recovery from his forearm strain. Since the Royals are nearly dead in the water, they may want to play it safe with Davis. These seemingly minor forearm and elbow issues frequently turn into Tommy john surgery. Keep an eye on the situation since it affects Herrera’s value.
Melancon allowed his first run as a National, but he got the save anyway. Overall, he’s netted three saves in the last week.
Familia failed to protect a 2-1 lead against the Padres on Saturday. Wil Myers delivered a solo home run. Familia may lead the league with 40 saves, but his peripherals are merely good. He rebounded with a save last night.
Tier 3: Good Veterans (4)
Alex Colome, Tampa Bay Rays
Cody Allen, Cleveland Indians
Seung-hwan Oh, St. Louis Cardinals
Santiago Casilla, San Francisco Giants
When the Indians paid a steep price to acquire Andrew Miller, it was assumed he’d be the staff closer. Traditionally, that’s where you put your best reliever. Sabermetric theory suggests that your best reliever should pitch against the opposing team’s best hitters – regardless of inning. And that’s how Terry Francona has used Miller.
Miller will still get a couple saves between now and the end of the year. His ratios are worth owning even without any saves. However, he hasn’t slammed the door since August 6. Allen has three saves since then. As for Allen’s performance, he tossed three no-hit innings, earning two saves in the process.
Oh had a strong week, tossing 5.2 scoreless innings across four appearances. He earned three saves to go with 12 strikeouts. The performance raised his season strikeout rate by almost an entire strikeout per inning.
I swear, every time I stick my neck out in support of Casilla, he has a meltdown outing. He took the loss on Sunday after allowing a three-run home run to Jonathan Schoop. Casilla had three other solid appearances including two saves. I’ll leave him here for now, but he could easily fit in the next tier down too. Casilla’s 3.21 ERA is back above 3.00 for the first time since 2010. He has time to recover.
