Meanwhile, Rocky Long has quietly built the best defense in the Group of Five. And running back Donnell Pumphrey will help the ease transition of quarterback Christian Chapman into the lineup. This is the Mountain West’s year to grab a marquee bowl berth, possibly the Cotton Bowl to face the Big 12 champ.

15. Texas A&M Will Crack The Top 10 After Beating Tennessee

The Aggies are an intriguing squad, with many of the ingredients needed to be sleeper out of the SEC West this season. A&M has stabilized after a rough end to last season and turbulent offseason. There’s a fair amount of talent in College Station, particularly at wide receiver and along the defensive line. Bringing Trevor Knight over from Oklahoma will also inject some much-needed maturity and senior leadership into the huddle. 

The Aggies will be this year’s Utah, ascending in the polls like a rocket following wins over UCLA, Auburn and the Vols. They won’t solve Bama or LSU, but the fast start and 10-win season will dramatically dial down the temperature on Kevin Sumlin’s hot seat.

14. Brady Hoke Will Be This Year’s Gene Chizik

Chizik began restoring his reputation last season as a defensive leader in Chapel Hill. This year, it’s Hoke’s turn to prove that a rocky stint as a head coach doesn’t mean he has lost the ability to mentor kids. 

Chizik was a game-changer for Carolina, peeling more than two touchdowns a game off their scoring average. Hoke will have a similar effect in Eugene, transforming Oregon into a more fundamentally sound unit. The guy can coach, as was proven at Ball State and San Diego State. Now he has the athletes and the motivation to show that four years in Ann Arbor won’t define his career.

13. Mark Richt Will Pay Huge Dividends At Miami … Eventually

Haven’t we learned anything about the Hurricanes over the past decade? From a talent perspective, this program still has a long way to go in order to match the ACC power brokers. And assuming Richt, who was below .500 versus quality opponents in his final six years at Georgia, can just flip the switch in Miami is patently naïve. This process is going to take a little time. Plus, where is this year’s edition of the Canes a cut above the competition, besides at quarterback and possibly running back? 

Take a deep breath and settle down. Richt was the right hire, but his first team will finish third in the Coastal, so he’ll benefit from patience.

12. Jim Mora-Bo Pelini Comparisons Become A Thing

Let’s see. Pelini inherited a bad situation from Bill Callahan and made it better, hit a plateau that he couldn’t exceed and rubbed people the wrong way with his crabby demeanor. Now, Mora isn’t quite as volatile, and he’s only four years into his UCLA tenure, but he’s in danger of becoming L.A.’s Pelini if he doesn’t win a Pac-12 title in one the next two seasons. While Mora has done a ton of good with the Bruins, like landing quarterback Josh Rosen, it’s becoming time to parlay the improved talent base into more than just Alamo and Foster Farms Bowls.

11. Clemson’s Defensive Rebuild Catapults Brent Venables To His Alma Mater

Only three starters return from last year’s defense, but it’ll hardly be detectable this fall. There’ll be an emergence of new stars, like defensive end Austin Bryant, defensive tackle Christian Wilkins, linebacker Kendall Joseph and safety Jadar Johnson, to prevent the unit from unraveling. 

The biggest beneficiary will be Venables, a red-hot coordinator who’ll parlay another terrific season into an early-December offer to succeed legendary Bill Snyder at Kansas State. Venables both played and coached under Snyder, and he knows what it takes to flourish at a small-market campus that lacks the budget and recruiting hook of the Big 12 powerhouses.

10. USC Rises To The Top Of The Pac-12

As usual, the Pac-12 is wide-open, and the Trojans are poised to capture it now that there’s more sideline stability with Clay Helton and uncertainty up in the North Division. Troy will endure some September lumps, with three games outside the Coliseum. However, it’ll rally in the second-half of the year to take the South and the title behind the improved passing of Max Browne. For the second straight year, the Pac-12 will be left out of the playoff picture, with the opening day loss to the Crimson Tide looming large when resumes are being evaluated.

9. Texas Goes On A Tear

The future is bright for the Horns, thanks to a swath of emerging underclassmen, inculding Shane Buechele, who could get the ball as early as the opener with Notre Dame. Texas will start slowly—again—but use Oklahoma as a crimson and cream fork in the road—again. And from Dallas forward this emerging squad will be virtually unbeatable over the final two months, earning Strong at least another year to coach up his young kids.

8. Michigan Loses To Ohio State, Still Earns A New Year’s Six Invite

The Wolverines are surging like a locomotive under Jim Harbaugh, a trend showing no signs of stopping. Still, the backfield is average compared to the rest of the Big Ten, and the second-half schedule is nasty. Michigan opens with five games in Ann Arbor, and should be 7-0 by the end of October. But the final five weekends include telltale trips to East Lansing, Iowa City and Columbus. And Michigan State and Ohio State have had a whammy on the Wolverines in recent years. The Wolverines will avenge last year’s crushing loss to the Spartans, lose a fifth straight to the Buckeyes and finish the season in Pasadena.

7. Florida State Loses To Louisville, Still Earns A College Football Playoff Berth

The Seminoles will win the ACC behind a historic season from Dalvin Cook, but they’ll lose all margin for error in a wakeup call loss to the Cardinals on Sept. 17. Louisville is extremely athletic and dangerous on both sides of the ball, and sophomore quarterback Lamar Jackson is prepped to do his best RG3 circa 2010 impression. 

Still, the stumble will occur early enough for Florida State to regroup in time to outlast Clemson on Oct. 29, defeat North Carolina for the conference crown and qualify for a semifinal game in Atlanta.

6. Oklahoma Does Not Win The Conference

The Sooners are heavily favored to win the Big 12, particularly in light of Baylor’s offseason issues. That’s cause for grave concern in Norman. Historically, Bob Stoops’ teams tend to overachieve when expectations are modest (see: 2000, 2013 and last year) and underachieve when wearing a fat target (see: just about every other year). While Oklahoma has more talent than anyone in the league, there’s something about a preseason top 10 ranking that’s vexed this program. It’ll open 2-2, spend the holidays in San Antonio at the Alamo Bowl and, in January, look back on a season of lost opportunities.

5. TCU Claims The Big 12, But Misses The College Football Playoff 

The Horned Frogs were hammered by injuries a year ago, yet still lost just twice, including a one-point heartbreaker at eventual Big 12 champ Oklahoma. Now, the offense is getting a complete facelift, with a new quarterback needing to step up in place of Trevone Boykin. 

This is still a program built around Gary Patterson’s defense. And the defense, which is healthy again and retooled, is capable of providing cover as the offense gels. The Sooners visit Fort Worth on Oct. 1 in a key conference showdown that’ll set the tone for the balance of the year.

4. Ohio State Enters College Football Playoff As Nation’s Hottest Team

Plenty of people are overlooking the Buckeyes because they’ve experienced so much roster turnover. And while there are challenges to be sure, it’d be a mistake to underestimate Urban Meyer’s ability to maximize the ability of young athletes getting their first chance at starring roles. In fact, Meyer loves the makeup of this squad, which is far hungrier and eager to please than the star-studded 2015 edition that suffered from a national championship hangover. With a Week 3 upset in Norman, Ohio State and quarterback J.T. Barrett will serve national notice that they’re ready to contend for a national title and a Heisman, respectively.

3. SEC Sends Two Teams To College Football Playoff

True, it’s a narrow needle that must be threaded, particularly since the College Football Playoff committee places added value on winning a league championship. But it’s feasible, provided the SEC West produces a pair of one-loss teams. And it’ll not only drive the rest of the country into a state of hysteria but also ignite talk of the need for an eight-team playoff in the future. 

Here’s the path: LSU hands Alabama its only loss of the season on Nov. 5 before going on to win the league title over Tennessee. The Tide, by way of its irrefutably better body of work, captures the final bid ahead of TCU and USC, the latter of whom it defeated in the opener.

2. Fournette Wins Heisman, Leads LSU To SEC Crown

Fournette winning the Heisman will hardly qualify as a surprise. Carrying his Tigers to an SEC championship, though, will be a bit of an upset. But LSU is poised for the challenge ahead after darn near costing Les Miles his job last November. 

There’s a renewed focus in Baton Rouge, and more returning starters than this program is accustomed. The defense, particularly on the back end, will be up to the usual standard, and a more mature Brandon Harris is ready to play a bigger role at quarterback. The Tigers will amass an early head of steam behind that combination of defense and the ground game, peaking with a Nov. 5 win over Alabama in the game of the regular season.

1. Bama Won’t Win Its Division, Will Cop a Playoff Berth

By the two key measures, player personnel and coaching prowess, the Tide is one of the four best programs entering the 2016 college football season. And even after falling to LSU on Nov. 5 in a game that’ll decide the SEC West, the playoff committee will rightfully agree that Bama is still one of the game’s four premier teams. 

As usual, there’ll be a new wave of stars to offset another tenuous quarterback situation. By early December, the Tide will have wins over USC, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Texas A&M, with a lone defeat coming to the top-ranked Tigers. At the end of the month, No. 4-seeded Bama will avenge that loss with a Peach Bowl semifinal win.

MORE COLLEGE FOOTBALL PREDICTIONS: Predicting No. 1-128 Final Rankings For 2016