2016 Fantasy Basketball Draft Prep: Miami Heat Team Outlook
There may be no tougher team to figure out in the NBA this season than the Heat.
For the first time in more than a dozen years, they won’t be led by future Hall of Famer Dwyane Wade, who left for Chicago this offseason on less-than-pleasant terms.
The team would be surrounded by uncertainty even if Wade was still around, but they also lost starters Joe Johnson and Luol Deng, a trio who combined to average 104.3 minutes per game during the team’s two playoff series. Add in the health questions surrounding Chris Bosh, who may never play in the NBA again following his second bout with blood clots, and it’s nearly impossible to say what this team might look like with any certainty.
Of course, uncertainty isn’t always a bad thing for Fantasy.
There is a ton of risk with this team, but risk is always tied with reward, and if you bet — maybe “guess” is the more appropriate word — right on this team, you could find a gem to lead you to a Fantasy championship.
The biggest question mark
For obvious reasons, the Heat haven’t been able to be forthcoming on details about Bosh’s health. Given the nature of his issues, this isn’t your typical injury — this is about Bosh’s health off the court, and the rules are different in these scenarios. It is almost impossible to even speculate on what might happen regarding Bosh, but the Miami Herald did recently report the team is “cautiously optimistic” Bosh will play. However, the team has also made it clear Bosh will not be cleared to play while taking blood thinners, and there have been rumblings of discontent on both sides, as Bosh reportedly tried to lobby the Players Association to get clearance to play during last season’s playoffs. There just isn’t any clarity on this issue, and there may not be any as we get closer to the season. There is no question Bosh can be a difference-maker when he is on the court, as he was enjoying yet another fine season before this latest health scare. Once you get to the later rounds of your draft, someone is going to take a flier on Bosh, and it is a risk worth taking.
The potential superstar
In some ways, Whiteside is still very much a young player. With just 3,378 minutes logged in the NBA so far, seven different members of the 2014 NBA Draft class have seen the floor more in their careers. He has relatively little experience, but we also typically don’t expect much improvement from players by the time they are 27, which makes Whiteside such an interesting case. If all he does is replicate his full-season numbers from 2015-16, Whiteside is an elite center. However, it is worth wondering just how much he might be capable of. Whiteside averaged 17.5 points, 13.3 rebounds and 3.4 blocks per game after the All-Star break, and most impressively, managed to improve his success rate at the free-throw line from 55.2 percent to 75 percent after the break. That version of Whiteside might still be capable of those kinds of leaps in the middle of the season — which is astounding — and makes him an even more interesting Fantasy target. It isn’t crazy to think Whiteside has the potential to be the No. 1 center in all of Fantasy next season.
Replacing Wade
Last season was a rough one for Dragic, who never looked totally comfortable playing next to Wade in their season and a half together. Dragic is a competent 3-point shooter, but he isn’t well-suited for an off-ball role, however he often found himself in just that role with the ball in Wade’s hands. The Heat have a number of options to step up in Wade’s place, and any of Josh Richardson, Tyler Johnson or Dion Waiters may end up having Fantasy appeal as the starting shooting guard, but it will be Dragic who benefits most from the Heat legend’s decision to walk away. Dragic was once a top-10 Fantasy guard, and not that long ago he averaged 20.3 points and 5.9 assists per game (back in 2013-14). Dragic should be the team’s lead guard this season and a bounce-back campaign is certainly to be expected.
Winslow is more of a wild coming off a confounding rookie season. Anyone who watched the Heat could see he made an immediate impact, and it’s no surprise he had one of the best net ratings while on the floor. However, while the Heat would go on a run every time he came into the game, you would look up the box score at the end to find supremely underwhelming Fantasy numbers. Winslow scored in double figured just 15 times last season and had exactly one game with either 20-plus points or five-plus assists. Still just 20, Winslow had star potential coming out of college, and with the loss of talent the Heat have had to deal with this offseason, he will get a chance to show it. You are betting on talent more than track record here, but it could pay off handsomely in the later rounds on Draft Day.