Draft Analysis: 50 Players to Draft at Cost
Even though I’ve already reinforced why I believe the recent surge of drafting wide receivers early and often is sound strategy regardless and isn’t going away for good reason anytime soon, I’m someone who likes to tinker with multiple approaches to drafts. Every draft room breathes its own life and being flexible in your approach can save you from being at complete mercy of a concrete agenda heading in.
Since I’m also fortunate to play in many leagues that allow me to incorporate different approaches, I also get to draft a lot of different players over the course of the summer. In a majority of drafts, I’m mostly going WR heavy early with a mix of running backs in the middle rounds before hitting wide receiver again late, but I’m going to share all of my favorite players at their current costs so that you can apply your own strategy and thoughts around those picks while also providing a look ahead in drafts when you have to change an approach on the fly or make a hard decision. Since nearly all of the leagues I play in reward receptions to some degree, I’m using the PPR aggregate ADP available at Fantasy Pros as the baseline for ADP here.
Keep in mind that ADP is only a proxy of price and it varies league to league. These are not the only players I am targeting or drafting to teams this summer. Players will be drafted higher than you expect and some will slide further in drafts. Again, flexibility and everything, but rather these are players in the early, middle and back portions of each round that I feel represent the most attraction at their current costs in leagues.
First Round
A.J. Green: Like most, I have the triumvirate of Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham and Julio Jones at the top of draft boards, and the next receiver after those is Green. Green is the only player other than Randy Moss to have at least 60 receptions and 1,000 yards in each of his first five seasons to start his career. Despite his continued run in extending that streak last season with 86 grabs for 1,297 yards, Green was targeted just 8.3 times per game and targeted on just 22.8 percent of his routes, the lowest marks for each since his rookie season. Despite the reduction in volume, Green still held high end output per look as he averaged a career-high 9.8 yards and 2.1 fantasy points per target. Green has known to be slightly volatile over his career with big games covering up some lower moments, which prevents him from threatening the first tier of receivers. He’s been outside of the top-24 weekly scorers at his position in 20 of his past 45 games and also had really bizarre home and road splits that have been longstanding, averaging 36.4 more yards per game on the road than at home for his career. That was a trend that continued last season in Andy Dalton’s best season as a pro, but with Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu gone, and with Tyler Eifert potentially limited or inactive to start the season, we should see the Bengals’ offense completely run through Green once again as it did in 2012 and 2013.
David Johnson: The sample wasn’t over a full season’s worth of work, but Johnson led all qualifying running backs in rushing points per carry (.85) and receiving points per reception (1.94) last season as he carried owners to fantasy titles once Chris Johnson was lost for the season. Over the final five weeks of the season, Johnson led the NFL in yards from scrimmage (131.6 per game) and all non-quarterbacks in fantasy scoring while having the second-most touches in the league. With his receiving ability, he’s virtually game script-proof as evidenced by his 108 total yards in Arizona’s blowout loss to Carolina in the playoffs. Johnson scored on 7.5 percent of his touches and that type elite touchdown production per opportunity has been a precursor to major production for other backs. The return of Chris Johnson shouldn’t have owners spooked too much as Chris Johnson averaged over two full yards fewer per touch compared to David and offers no versatility to the offense as a receiver. While Johnson may not be a perfect player amongst many, his pros far outweigh the cons as he’s a fantastic athlete and a great receiver in arguably the league’s best offense.
Lamar Miller: Still only 25 years old this season, Miller is still prime in the apex range for running backs and fresh on a new contract that gave him top-6 guaranteed money at his position. I’ve already highlighted how Miller’s change in climate to Houston should impact his expected volume for this upcoming season as he was 5th in scoring last season despite ranking 11th in touches. He’s also consistently improved in the receiving game steadily while in the NFL, increasing his reception totals every year of his career. Jeff Allen is arguably an upgrade to Brandon Brooks in the run game and second round center Nick Martin should step right in and start. It’s not farfetched by any means to believe that Miller can’t be the best RB in fantasy this season.
Second Round
Keenan Allen: Allen was fourth in the NFL in targets per game at 11.1 before missing the final eight weeks with a kidney injury and had three games 130 or more receiving yards, which was only bested only by Julio Jones, Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham, the three guys leading off the top receiver tier for just about everyone. Allen has kind of been the rich man’s Jarvis Landry over the past two seasons as volume has anchored low yards per reception (10.8 and 10.2 yards) and yards per target (6.5 and 8.2 yards) totals as well as having a hard time finding the end zone since his rookie season, scoring on just 5.2 and 5.9 percent of his receptions over the past two years, but 2016 could see that volume meld with his rookie year season usage with the return of Ken Whisenhunt as offensive coordinator. The last time Whiz was in San Diego was Allen’s rookie season in which his average depth of target (aDOT) per Pro Football Focus was 10.7 yards downfield and he seen 10 targets from the 10-yard and in.
Jamaal Charles: It’s easy to see why Charles has slipped out of the top tier of running backs. He’s going to be 30-years old and is coming off of his second ACL tear, which may hold him out for the entire preseason. Still, Charles is a Hall of Fame quality player when active and still ranked second in PPR points game (16.0) and rushing points per attempt (.85) in 2015. Even if Charles’ workload is shaved this season, he’s already shown he can be elite on lesser volume as he has three top-12 scoring seasons on 275 or fewer touches in his career. And even if Spencer Ware shaves off a few touchdowns, Charles is still the best pass catcher in Kansas City and I anticipate the Chiefs will throw more in 2016, so don’t let Charles slide too greatly in the second round.
Alshon Jeffery: No player was targeted more per route than Jeffery was last season at 32.7 percent as he cleared double digit targets in six of his nine games played with seven games of 75 yards or more. Jeffery was working towards a 165 target pace over 16 games in an offense that only passed 54 percent of the time (25th in the league). Jeffery may not be targeted to that highly of a degree with Kevin White returning this season, but the drop off shouldn’t be overly dynamic and the 26-year old receiver has shown he can be effective sharing targets over his career with Brandon Marshall and I expect the Bears to have more balance throwing the football this season when game conditions apply. The recurring soft tissue injuries are a concern, but I won’t let Jeffery fall too far in the second round because of them because of what he’s done while active.
Mark Ingram: Ingram had one of the best floors of any player in the league last season as he had just one fantasy week lower than RB19 in his 12 games played due to a career-high 50 receptions and 97.8 yards from scrimmage per game. Ingram did top 80 yards on the ground only once, so there’s some minor concern if the receptions get shaved down and he’s missed multiple games in three straight seasons, but he’ll remain the back that will see the scoring opportunities on what remains one of the highest-scoring offenses in the league.
