Three-Point Stance: Is a Big Ben boom on the horizon?
All eyes are on the Steel City. Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, Ladarius Green, breakout candidate Sammie Coates and Le’Veon Bell, reportedly fully recuperated from knee surgery and waiting official word on his suspension appeal, are sought after fantasy options. In this edition of ‘The Stance,’ Brad Evans and Brandon Funston sport bumblebee jerseys and touch on the Black and Gold.
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Limited by injury last season, Roethlisberger still managed to churn out the 10th-best points per game average among QBs. Martavis Bryant’s absence is a drag, but with a bevy of fabulous weapons at his disposal, many expect him to be a top-10 fixture this season. OVER or UNDER 31.5 passing touchdowns for the towering signal-caller?
Brandon – UNDER. I think he’ll finish very close to this number, but a couple things give me pause at the idea that he can go over this mark, first and foremost being his track record of DNPs. True, he’s never sustained a substantial injury in his 12-year career, playing at least 12 games in every season. But he’s played all 16 games just three times. To hit 32-plus passing TDs, he’s going to want to take advantage of every opportunity afforded him. He’s only reached this mark (exactly) twice in his career, and he played a combined 31 of 32 possible games in those seasons. If he misses even a couple games, he’ll be flirting heavily with the UNDER here.
The other concern is the loss of Martavis Bryant and, possibly, Ladarius Green (post-concussion issues). That’s two towering red zone threats that would be gone, making the current he’s swimming against much stronger.
Brad – UNDER. Roethlisberger continues to be a quality value at his 87.1 ADP, but it’s hard to foresee him penetrating the position’s top-five. Yes, he has arguably the game’s deadliest receiver to throw to (Brown) and Coates and Green, assuming he isn’t forced into an early retirement, offer substantial upside, but he’s only reached the 30-TD plateau twice in his career (’07 and ’14).
Because of his enormous frame and stand-tall mentality in the pocket, injury risk also plays a factor. Though he possesses a Wolverine-like toughness, he’s played a full slate only three times in his 12-year career. Due to the brutal hits he takes, a missed game or three seems inevitable even behind what should be a robust Steelers offensive line. In the end, Big Ben chimes in with roughly 4,500 passing yards and 29 TDs.
Insiders are torn on Bell’s pending four-game suspension. ESPN’s Sal Paolantonio remarked last week there is confidence within the Steelers’ organization that the penalty will be overturned. Meanwhile, NBC’s Mike Florio insists it will be upheld. Assuming the latter is true, what OVERALL PICK would you be willing to invest in Bell’s services (.5 PPR)?
Brandon – No. 16. I wouldn’t want to use my Round 1` pick on a player that I know will miss four games off the top, in addition to any potential DNPs that might follow due to injury – after all, we are talking about a player returning from a a major knee injury, which is not for nothing even if all reports are glowing about his rehab. But the Pittsburgh backfield real estate is lucrative for fantasy and I would definitely consider starting to build a monopoly on that chunk of property in the second round, with the idea that it would be absolutely essential to land DeAngelo Williams a few rounds later – knowing that it requires reaching for DeLo a bit earlier than ideal to guarantee that I owned the most important handcuff in fantasy football.
Brad – No. 12. Stated clearly a couple weeks back, my affections for Bell are unwavering. He’s made some poor decisions off the field, most notably his foray into hip hop, but when in uniform, he’s exhibited supreme patience, power and versatility. Pound-for-pound he’s the most complete running back in the pro game. His 92.3 catch percentage (No. 1 among RBs), 3.4 yards after contact average (No. 4) and 6.8 evaded tackles per game (No. 2) from last season support that claim. Recall pre-knee shredding, he was on pace for 1,845 combined yards.
Bell proclaimed he was 100 percent earlier this month. Once his latest ordeal is resolved or suspension served, he’ll be ready to unleash on NFL defenses. If the latter outcome occurs, simply fill the void with a mid-to-late round RB. Because of the depressed RB market, there are several terrific values ripe for the picking (e.g. Melvin Gordon, Duke Johnson, Rashad Jennings). Heck, DeAngelo’s ADP currently sits in the mid-80s. Let the Bell toll for thee.
On Pittsburgh’s initial depth-chart, Sammie Coates was listed behind Markus Wheaton, quelling excitement somewhat for the second-year riser. BELIEVE or MAKE BELIEVE: Coates soon surpasses Wheaton, nails down the WR2 gig opposite Brown and finishes inside the WR top-40.
Brandon – BELIEVE (sort of). I think Coates will pass Wheaton on the depth chart because Pittsburgh is going to need that big, physical receiver with Bryant and (possibly) Green out of action. But I expect plenty of growing pains from Coates, a rollercoaster ride of fantasy production that ultimately nets out just outside the top 40 (at moment, I have him at No. 43 among fantasy WRs). I have Wheaton at No. 48, and I would expect plenty of three-WR sets.
Brad – BELIEVE. Coates was featured in my recent late-round values piece. His size/speed blend, advances throughout the offseason and into training camp and exploitable opportunity suggest he’s on the verge of a break out. Someone has to pick up the slack for Bryant’s absence (8.4 targets per game in ’15). And with Brown drawing so much attention, favorable coverage is practically a given. Coates’ impressive metrics and natural fit outside arrow to a possible WR3 return. His ADP is still hovering around pick No. 120, but you’re a genius if you extend that arm a couple rounds earlier.
Bull rush Brad @YahooNoise and Brandon @1befun on Twitter.
