Training Camp Daily Dose: Dose: Stevie's Gone For Year
As unfortunate as it is, Wednesday served as another reminder of how brutal NFL training camps can be. Injuries are a major part of the game, but it’s always somber when a season is lost before Week 1.
Chargers’ slot man Stevie Johnson (meniscus surgery) will miss the entire 2016-17 season rehabbing his knee. Even though Johnson was being selected in the 15th-plus round of fantasy drafts, his absence has a fairly large effect on the Chargers’ passing attack.
We’ll hit on what Johnson’s loss means to the San Diego offense, the hype surrounding Marvin Jones, Ladarius Green’s absence and Jimmy Graham’s return to practice in Thursday’s Dose.
Editor’s Note: For updated rankings, projections, player profiles, positional tiers, mock drafts, sleepers and busts, exclusive columns and plenty more, check out our Draft Guide!
The Headlines
With Stevie Johnson’s loss, the Chargers now have 221 vacated targets from the 2015 campaign due to offseason personnel changes. After losing 33.1 percent of team from targets last year, Keenan Allen, Antonio Gates, Travis Benjamin and Danny Woodhead will all see upticks in their target projections as Stevie Johnson’s 6.5 target/game clip from 2015 is now wide open.
Keep in mind, with Johnson’s knee injury and Ladarius Green’s departure in the offseason, roughly 128 of those 221 open passing looks come in the interior of the field. Keenan Allen could get more snaps in the slot as a result, but 36-year-old Antonio Gates quietly gets another bump. The risk of his advanced age is already priced into his average draft position, costing owners just an early-10th round pick in most re-draft/best-ball leagues.
Optimism has been growing in Marvin Jones’ corner over the past few weeks. Per one report on Wednesday, Jones is “already (Matthew) Stafford’s favorite target” and he apparently “emerged as the Lions No. 1 wide receiver”. Detroit’s offense is incredibly intriguing, mostly because the team lost 235 targets from the 2015 season and defining their pass catcher’s roles is proving to be a bit tricky.
Soon-to-be 36-year-old and recent veteran signee Anquan Boldin wins best in the slot these days, which would effectively push Golden Tate outside opposite Marvin Jones more often. To be clear, that is not necessarily a bad thing for Tate, but it does throw his part in the Lions’ attack out of whack. Tate lined up in the slot on 56.7 percent of his snaps last season and gained 61.6 percent of his total yardage in the interior part of the field, per NFL.com’s Matt Harmon.
Tate’s average depth of target last season was third-lowest among qualified receivers in the league last year (5.8), so more outside snaps could actually improve Tate’s yardage totals, provided he sees a similar target share (20.7%). Whether or not Marvin Jones actually becomes the Lions’ main target in 2016 remains to be seen, but there is no good reason behind his WR38 average draft position. Applying the principle of expected targets alone — remember, the Lions lost 37.2 percent of their targets from last year — Marvin Jones is a huge value in the early 7th round.
Ladarius Green fantasy fanatics are still waiting with bated breath for his debut on the Steelers’ practice field. Still on the PUP list (ankle), Green is seven months removed from his surgery in January. It’s hard not to bump Green down slightly while he misses valuable reps with his new signal-caller Ben Roethlisberger, but we’re still a month away from opening day. Fantasy owners shouldn’t hit the panic button just yet, but Steelers HC Mike Tomlin’s unenthusiastic words of, “He’s (Green) still on PUP” don’t inspire confidence. However, if positive news emerges in the coming days, Ladarius Green will be a pretty obvious value at his draft day cost. Currently the TE10 (and falling), Green’s upside is very clear: Notorious Dad Runner Heath Miller saw 15 percent of the Steelers’ looks over the past two seasons. Miller’s target totals average out to 86 looks per season, which would have ranked 10th-most among tight ends in 2015. Provided he gets healthy, Green has a safe bed of targets lining his floor and the upside to smash his average draft position.
After rupturing his patellar tendon (knee) in Week 12 of the 2015 season, Jimmy Graham was removed from the Seahawks PUP list on Wednesday. He’s just eight months removed from surgery and, by all accounts, his rehab has gone 100% according to plan. Torn patellar tendons are known for killing NFL careers, but early signs seem to indicate Graham may be an outlier. Per FootballGuys’ Dr. Jene Bramel, the ‘Hawks need to be most concerned with his range of motion and avoiding compensatory injuries in the weeks to come. Even though the deck may be stacked against him and despite the fact he turns 30 in November, Graham looks pretty close to returning in Week 1. Look for Graham’s TE18 draft day cost to slowly start creeping upwards as the positive news begins to percolate. Given the presence of a waiver wire, Graham makes for a better re-draft investment than a best-ball proposition if his comeback effort turns fruitless.
Quick Hits
Julian Edelman (foot) returned to practice on Wednesday… Arian Foster (Achilles), Ben Roethlisberger (rest), Eric Ebron (ankle), Corey Coleman (hamstring) and Ezekiel Elliott will not play in their preseason openers… Chiefs’ GM John Dorsey is optimistic Jamaal Charles (ACL) can return in time for Week 1… Finally, Darren McFadden (elbow) isn’t expected to return soon; he is still on track for Week 1.
