Offseason Beat: Bounce Back Candidates
It was another rough year for Parsons, and knee issues were again the culprit in his failure to realize his true potential, although he did flash his upside after the All-Star break when he put in averages of 17.6 points, 5.6 boards, 4.1 assists, 1.3 steals and 2.4 triples per contest on 51.7 percent shooting from the field and 81.8 percent from the stripe (top-25 value in standard leagues). Despite only playing in 127 of the 164 available games over the past two seasons, Parsons earned himself a max contract with the Grizzlies as a free agent this summer because he’s “really good at basketball,” and he projects to enter the 2016-17 season healthy. Health will obviously be the deciding factor in whether or not Parsons can finally return to being a top-30 talent, but I think he’s going to slide so far in drafts (after back-to-back down years), that the rewards will outweigh the risk in taking him. He’s going to be the No. 2/3 option in the Grizzlies’ offense depending on the health of Mark Gasol (foot), and based on his four-year max-deal with Memphis, he should have the rock in his hands a ton being utilized as a creator in an offense that lacks in that department.
For Bledsoe it’s not so much about his statistical production, but more so his ability to stay on the court. Bledsoe had a torrid start to his 2015-16 campaign, producing top-25 value in standard leagues behind averages of 20.4 points, 4.0 boards, 6.1 assists, 2.0 steals and 1.5 triples per contest on 45.3 percent shooting, but his season unfortunately came to an abrupt end when he tore the meniscus in his left knee. Bledsoe opted to repair his torn meniscus rather than have it removed (he did have his right meniscus removed back in 2014), which should prolong his career, although he’s going to be an extremely risky guy to spend a draft pick on given that he’ll be playing on two surgically repaired knees. For what it’s worth, the reports on Bledsoe’s recovery thus far have been nothing but positive, and he’s expected to be fully cleared by the start of training camp, if not before. So is he a bounce-back candidate? Most definitely. But will I be willing to spend a draft pick on a guy playing on two surgically repaired knees? No really… he’d have to fall pretty far for me to be willing to take the plunge.
After back-to-back seasons have ended due to blood clotting issues, Bosh’s career is in jeopardy. Miami has been extremely sparse with the updates on Bosh, but he’s reportedly still taking blood thinners, and as long as that fact is true he won’t be stepping on the basketball court. If Bosh can overcome the blood clotting issues, he has the ability to produce third-round value, but his situation could force him into an early retirement.
Gasol’s 2015-16 campaign came to an abrupt end when he suffered a Type II fracture to the navicular bone on his right foot, and this is the kind of injury that unfortunately can be career-altering, particularly for seven-footers. Memphis has been sparse with the updates on Gasol, but as of late-June he had still has not been medically cleared which is concerning given that his procedure was six months ago (he was originally given a loose 4-6 month timetable). Through 52 games during the 2015-16 season, Gasol only managed to produce fourth-round value in standard 9-cat leagues with averages of 16.6 points, 7.0 boards, 3.8 assists, 1.0 steal and 1.3 blocks per game on 46.3 percent shooting. While he’s technically a bounce-back candidate, the odds are not in his favor for a bounce-back year as he recovers from a very serious injury, so he’s not someone I would suggest spending/wasting a draft pick.
The combination of a badly injured left quad and a broken right hand kept Griffin on the sidelines for all but 35 games last season, so that’s now two years in a row where Griffin’s fantasy value has been hampered by various injuries (he suited up for just 67 games during his 2014-15 campaign). However, prior to these past two seasons, Griffin had been a model of health, missing just four games through his first four years in the league (excluding his rookie campaign, in which he sat out the entire year due to a fractured knee cap). Griffin had a bone marrow transplant to speed up the recovery of his torn quad, and all signs currently point towards him being fully recovered for the start of the 2016-17 season. As long as Blake can stay on the court, he’s fully capable of producing top-30 value in standard 9-cat leagues, so he could make for a nice value pick on draft day as back-to-back injury riddled seasons will likely have him sliding further than he should on draft day.
Conley dealt with just about every injury you could suffer during his 2015-16 campaign (with Achilles tendinitis being the main issue), and all those injuries resulted in Iron Mike suiting up for a mere 56 games on his way to averages of 15.3 points, 6.1 assists, 1.2 steals and 1.4 treys per contest on a career-low 42.2 percent shooting (just fifth-round value in standard 9-cat leagues). However, Conley has had a ton of time to recover (his last NBA game of the 2015-16 season was on March 3) and he’s reportedly 100 percent over the Achilles issue. Conley figures to enter the 2016-17 season with a clean slate, and his new head coach David Fizdale not only wants Conley to take on a more aggressive role in the offense, he also wants Memphis to turn up the pace. A higher pace means more offensive possessions, and more fantasy goodness for all those involved, so Conley’s arrow is pointing up.
Ibaka’s numbers had been trending in the wrong direction over the past three seasons as he continued to drift further and further away from the hoop and concede more and more touches to Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant in OKC’s offense. However, Ibaka was traded to Orlando during the offseason, and perhaps a change of scenery is just what the doctor ordered for Serge to return to being the early-round talent he used to be. He’s just 26 years old, so it’s not fair to say that he’s washed up, and I don’t think Frank Vogel will be asking Ibaka to spend 90 percent of his time acting as a decoy in the offense, hovering around the 3-point arc. Vogel tends to take a more traditional approach with his big men, and that’s good news for Ibaka. If he can spend more time closer to the hoop, his rebounding and shot blocking numbers should go up. He’s not really a guy that will bring the scoring statistics at an elite rate, but his ability to rack up the blocks without hurting you in any one category is what makes him so elite. He’ll likely be sliding fairly far on draft day, so he could make for a truly awesome value pick due to his early-round upside.
Gobert didn’t quite produce in the way that many hoped he would during his first full year as a full-time starter, and his production really fell off a cliff after the All-Star break when he only managed to put up 7.8 points, 11.5 boards and 1.9 swats per contest while connecting on a measly 51.1 percent of his free throw attempts. Injuries may have been a factor in his less-than-stellar season, as a Grade II MCL sprain partnered with some ankle issues robbed him of 21 games, but let’s keep in mind that last year was only Gobert’s third NBA season and he’s still just 24 years old. Gobert is still very raw on the offensive end, but let’s not forget that he was a top-20 stud after the All-Star break during the 2014-15 season when he produced 11.1 points, 13.4 boards and 2.6 blocks through 29 games. Gobert needs to pull down the boards and swat shots at an elite rate to establish himself as an early-round asset, but after a disappointing season, he should fall far enough on draft day to make for a nice value pick as a potential bounce-back candidate.
Another guy where health is going to play a major factor in his fantasy value. Through eight years of NBA experience, Anderson has only managed to produce two healthy seasons, and this past year it was a hernia that cut his year short. That being said, I’m eager to see what Anderson can do operating as the starting power forward for the Rockets in Mike D’Antoni’s offense. Anderson could realistically flirt with averaging 3.0 triples per contest, and that kind of elite 3-point production coming from the power forward position could put Anderson in the top-50 in standard 9-cat leagues. If Anderson slides to around round seven or eight on draft day, I’ll be highly motivated to take the plunge.
