Weekend ratings predictions: Olympic Games, NFL preseason and more – Sporting News
First, the results of last week’s predictions:
— PGA Championship, third and final rounds. Predictions: 2.7 and 4.3; final ratings: 1.3 (rain) and 3.4.
— Women’s British Open, final round. Prediction: 0.5; final rating: 0.6.
— MLB “Sunday Night Baseball,” Mariners-Cubs. Prediction: 1.0; final rating: 1.2.
— NHRA racing from Sonoma. Prediction: 0.8; final rating: 0.65.
— NASCAR Sprint Cup from Pocono. Prediction: 2.6; race postponed.
This week’s predictions (all times Eastern):
2016 Summer Olympics opening ceremony (7:30 p.m. Friday, NBC). Four years ago, the opening ceremony of the London Summer Olympics scored a whopping 21.0 rating — the highest for a non-U.S. Games since 1994. This year’s opening ceremony will be hard-pressed to match that figure for multiple reasons: 1. London is one of the world’s most iconic and recognizable cities; 2. Rio’s chief advantage over London, its close proximity to the Eastern time zone, will be neutralized by NBC’s decision to tape-delay the ceremony; 3. A steady drumbeat of negative media coverage seems to have dampened some of the national interest in the games, at least if one judges by a recent Gallup poll. With all of that in mind, look for Friday’s opening ceremony to fall more in line with Beijing in 2008 (18.8). Prediction: 19.2.
2016 Summer Olympics: Beach volleyball, swimming and men’s gymnastics (8 p.m. Saturday, NBC). The first official night of the Olympics features live swimming and beach volleyball, as well as taped men’s gymnastics. While the comparable night in 2012 featured Michael Phelps going head-to-head with Ryan Lochte in a much-hyped showdown, Saturday’s telecast is relatively light on star power. Even with the benefit of airing live, look for NBC to see a dip from 2012’s 15.8 rating. Prediction: 14.7.
2016 Summer Olympics: Women’s gymnastics, swimming and women’s diving (7 p.m. Sunday, NBC). The second night of competition features live swimming and diving as well as taped women’s gymnastics, with big names Katie Ledecky and Simone Biles both set to compete. The 19.8 rating of 2012 is quite the high bar, but look for ratings to at least come close. Prediction: 18.8.
2016 Summer Olympics: Men’s basketball, United States vs. China (6 p.m. Saturday, NBCSN). With LeBron James and Stephen Curry both skipping the Olympics, the USA basketball team is without more star power than usual. In addition, there were far fewer eyeballs on their exhibition games this year than in 2012, thanks to a move from ESPN to NBA TV. With all of that said, the latest version of the “Dream Team” should still pull solid numbers. Prediction: 2.0.
NFL Hall of Fame Game, Packers vs. Colts (8 p.m. Sunday, ESPN). The last two Olympic years, the NFL Hall of Fame Game aired on NFL Network, scoring a mere 1.2 rating each time. This year’s game should do better on ESPN, though not by much given the Olympic competition. Sunday’s game will be lucky to pull half of last year’s 5.2 on NBC. Prediction: 2.2.
NASCAR Sprint Cup from Watkins Glen (2:30 p.m. Sunday, USA Network). With the Olympics taking center stage on NBCSN, NASCAR’s Sprint Cup heads to USA for the only time this season. Given the network switch and the tough competition, it stands to reason that ratings will fall short of last year’s 2.5. Prediction: 2.1.
PGA Tour, Hartford Open, final round (3 p.m. Sunday, CBS). Last year’s Hartford Open hit a 10-year ratings high, but do not expect anything close to a repeat this week. Not only has the tournament been pushed back a month from its usual late June date, it faces direct competition from the Olympics. Look for ratings to fall dramatically from last year’s 2.0. Prediction: 1.1.
Paulsen is the founder of Sports Media Watch and a contributor for Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @Paulsen_SMW .
