Offseason Beat: Fantasy Basketball Breakouts
When setting your fantasy basketball big board in preparation for the season ahead, we all want to find value where others may not be looking. That exercise can become both overwhelming and exhausting when running through a laundry list of players, so I’m going to focus on established names that have an opportunity to take the next step in order to position themselves to move into the next fantasy frontier.
These guys should not be looked at as sleepers or under-the-radar targets. Instead, view them as worthy of higher valuation and consider plucking them earlier than your competitors might anticipate.
Victor Oladipo, G Oklahoma City Thunder
Given that he had an ADP of 35.6 (Round 3.9) last season with Orlando, it’s not as if it’s a secret that Oladipo can play. Regularly selected just after names like Andre Drummond and Hassan Whiteside but ahead of Gordon Hayward and Derrick Favors, Oladipo deserves consideration to be selected this time around as early as the beginning of Round 2.
Kevin Durant and his 19.2 shots per game are weirdly no longer in the picture, and Russell Westbrook—although he may try—simply can’t fill the void completely on his own. One look at the rest of OKC’s projected starting lineup should have us salivating over Oladipo’s potential to contribute in the box score. There simply isn’t anyone on the roster other than the new dynamic duo capable of creating their own offense, and it’s conceivable that Dipo could establish new career-high marks across the board.
In 36.5 minutes per game after the 2016 All-Star Break (24 contests), Oladipo averaged 19.4 points, 5.1 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 2.2 steals, 1.1 blocks and 1.4 3PM on 47.4% shooting while turning it over just 1.9 times per game. Studly.
Dennis Schroder, PG Atlanta Hawks
Schroder is a guy who is going to be a popular name on a lot of pre-draft lists, and it’s not hard to understand the reasoning. Following Jeff Teague’s departure, the runway is now clear for Nintendo DS to take off. Schroder turned some eyes when he got an opportunity to start last season (13.7 points, 3.8 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 0.8 steals, 1.5 triples), but it’s his per-36 minute numbers that have everyone projecting bigger things: 19.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 7.8 assists, 1.6 steals & 1.7 3-pointers.
Although he’ll have to improve his shooting (42.1%) as well as his inclination to turn the ball over (2.3 in just 20.5 minutes per game), Schroder’s upside is too high to pass on in a landscape that is all about maximizing ROI (return on investment).
Jeremy Lin, PG Brooklyn Nets
The support of a coaching staff can be an oversold narrative that is sometimes weighted too heavily, but I think it’s a very real factor in what lands Lin on this list. On top of being the second-best player on Brooklyn’s roster behind center Brook Lopez, Lin is now reunited with Kenny Atkinson and appears ready to re-find sustainable fantasy footing in familiar New York.
Let’s be clear: Guys like Greivis Vasquez, Randy Foye, Isaiah Whitehead and maybe Yogi Ferrell are in no way a threat to anything Lin is going to be able to do, and the confidence to play his game should empower Lin after a stretch where he was forced to recreate himself. He’s likely to have a higher usage rate than he’s had at any point since initially bursting onto the scene, and while that does not translate to guaranteed improved production—especially since he’ll be a primary point on the opposition’s scouting report every night—I’m willing to bet on Lin offering the most fantasy value since Mike D’Antoni was riding him like Secretariat. To paraphrase Lloyd Braun: Linsanity now, serenity later.
Andrew Wiggins, G/F Minnesota Timberwolves
Something special is about to happen in Year 3.
Karl-Anthony Towns has cast a large shadow since his arrival in Minnesota, but Wiggins—too quietly for my liking—really took a strong step forward in his sophomore season in both reality and fantasy. It’s not often a 21-year-old manages to average better than 20 points per night (20.7) while simultaneously tasked with defending the opposition’s best player on a nightly basis, but that’s exactly what Wiggins did without enough people taking notice. And while detractors will point to his negligible contributions from behind the arc (0.7 3PM) as well as outside anything except points scored, Wiggins made major strides in his shooting (48.4% overall, 41.3% from distance) as well as his defensive versatility (1.3 steals, 0.5 blocks) in the final 28 games after the All-Star Break last season.
The offseason reports on Wiggins have been nothing short of glowing, and it would be criminal if he’s allowed to slip beyond Round 4 when picks start flying off the board.
Aaron Gordon, F Orlando Magic
There is no question that some eyebrows were raised when Frank Vogel recently said that he planned to utilize Gordon in a method similar to Paul George, but that type of versatility could be just what AG needs to be (rightfully) viewed as more than just a dunker. We got a taste of how well-rounded Gordon can be with his sophomore averages of 9.2 points, 6.5 rebounds, 0.8 steals, 0.7 blocks and 0.5 3PM on 47.3% shooting, and he was even better in the 37 games in which he started: 11.1 points, 8.2 rebounds, 0.9 steals, 0.7 blocks & 0.6 treys on 46.2% from the field.
It’s certainly fair to wonder if Gordon will have as many opportunities to contribute on the glass and on the defensive side of things with Nikola Vucevic, Bismack Biyombo and Serge Ibaka all patrolling the paint, but Gordon’s unbelievable athleticism and potential as a playmaker can (and should) present matchup problems that many teams will have a tough time handling. The full-fledged breakout may not come this year, but even a modest step forward—especially if Gordon is able to improve his ability to connect on free throws—might result in a nice climb up the rankings.
