Fantasy Baseball: It's time to hunt for saves
Trades are great for Fantasy, because they shake up the landscape and provide opportunities for value to crop up unexpectedly, and this trade deadline is no different. We saw teams like the Cincinnati Reds open up opportunities for young players like Scott Schebler , who already proved his worth Tuesday with a walkoff homer.
This year’s deadline was especially active in bullpens, where a ton of value has opened up all of a sudden over the last few years. Some of that has to do with trades, but we’ve also seen a number of changes in the ninth inning around the league that weren’t necessarily the result of trades. Whether through injury or underperformance, more than one-fifth of the closer jobs have changed hands in the past week around the league.
And some of the guys stepping up to fill in look like they have a chance to make a real impact for Fantasy players down the stretch. With so many relievers freely available on the wire, it only makes sense to prioritize them, so here are the six I am trying to snag, in the order I want them in:
1. Edwin Diaz , Seattle Mariners (41 percent owned)
Say hello to your new favorite pitcher. Some of the names on this list were, if not household names, at least well known in Fantasy circles before this season. Diaz was not one of them. Diaz put up solid numbers in the minors as a starter, but has looked like an absolute star since making the jump to the majors as a reliever, posting a 1.73 ERA in 26 innings of work. More impressive than his run prevention marks, however, is how he is getting there; Diaz has 52 strikeouts to only eight walks in 26 innings of work, after striking out the side for his first save Tuesday against the Boston Red Sox . He has been absolutely overpowering, striking out 46 percent of all batters faced so far, the fourth-best mark for any player with at least 20 innings over the last decade. Diaz is just a two-pitch pitcher right now, but both his fastball and slider have been unhittable so far; his fastball has the 17th-highest whiff (13.8 percent) rate among all pitchers with at least 200 thrown, while his slider ranks No. 1, at 37.1 percent. This dude is absolutely filthy, and has shown top-five closer upside.
2. Ken Giles , Astros (44 percent owned)
Giles was everyone’s favorite breakout reliever before the season, but the Houston Astros opted not to use him as a closer early in the season, and his struggles in April made that decision look smart. However, he has just gotten better and better as the season has gone on, and now sports a 2.20 ERA with 49 strikeouts in 32 2/3 innings since May 1. Installed as the closer in Houston, Giles is a must-own closer in all formats that count saves.
3. Tony Watson , Pittsburgh Pirates (59 percent owned)
You have to be very good for major league managers to trust you as a lefty closer. Luckily, Watson is very, very good. He sports a 2.47 career ERA, and a 2.58 mark this season, and should acquit himself well in the aftermath of the Mark Melancon trade, and he has job security, if not quite as much upside as some of the other names here.
4. Kelvin Herrera , Kansas City Royals (43 percent owned)
If Herrera was going to be the closer for the rest of the season, he would be an easy third here, given his 1.51 ERA and 11.3 K/9 for the season. He has been another dominant force for the Royals in the bullpen, and should be an elite closer for as long as Wade Davis is sidelined; with a flexor strain, that could be a while.
5. Tyler Thornburg , Milwaukee Brewers (25 percent owned)
Thornburg has taken a step forward this season, boosting his strikeout rate from 22.5 to 35.5 percent this season, and that has helped fuel his emergence as an elite reliever. He sports a 2.27 ERA, and with better swing-and-miss stuff — thanks to more reliance on his curveball — and solid control, he has a chance to make a real difference if he can keep the ball in the yard.
6. Cam Bedrosian , Los Angeles Angels (19 percent owned)
Bedrosian appeared in 51 games in 2014 and 2015 and sported a 5.81 ERA, as control issues kept him from making an impact. He has ironed those out so far, while also boosting his strikeout rate to 32.5 percent, a combination that has turned him into a true shutdown reliever for the Angels. His track record is a little concerning, and Bedrosian hasn’t been named the official replacement for Huston Street , but the upside is obvious, and he got the first opportunity Tuesday and struck out the side.
Dylan Bundy , RP, Baltimore Orioles (59 percent owned)
We’ve talked about Bundy as someone Fantasy owners should keep on their radars in recent weeks, but Tuesday’s start made it clear that Bundy is now a must-add pitcher on the waiver wire. The former top pitching prospect in all of baseball has successfully made the transition from the bullpen back to the rotation, striking out 24 batters to just five walks in 21 innings since joining the rotation. He is racking up swinging strikes at a healthy 12.5 percent rate, and was able to sustain his velocity deep into Tuesday’s start, a one-hit, seven-strikeout shutout against the powerful Texas Rangers . At 59 innings, Bundy has already eclipsed his total for every season since 2012, so there is some concern about fatigue or even a shutdown, but the Orioles have also hinted that they may keep Bundy in the rotation for the rest of the season. Bundy is following the same path Danny Duffy did, as a former top prospect who successfully transitioned from the ‘pen to the rotation midseason, and there is just as much upside here.
Joe Musgrove , SP, Astros (11 percent owned)
Musgrove is an interesting prospect for about a thousand reasons. Injuries kept him from making much of an impact in the Astros’ minor-league system for years, but he finally stayed healthy for a full season in 2015 and realy showed what he can do. As a 21-year-old, Musgrove pitched at three different levels, eventually reaching Double-A, while posting a 1.88 ERA with 8.9 K/9 and, incredibly, only 0.7 BB/9. Musgrove has walked just 41 batters in 337 1/3 innings total at the minor-league level, but he certainly didn’t look like a finesse pitcher in his major-league debut Tuesday. Working in long relief of an injured Lance McCullers , Musgrove struck out eight of the 15 batters he faced, while racking up 11 swinging strikes on 66 pitches. Musgrove’s combination of pinpoint control and average-or-better stuff across the board has worked for him so far, and he gets a good bit of deception on his fastball — a “one-seam” fastball that gets true sink from an over-the-top release point, rather than the classic late tail of a traditional sinker. Whether he can continue to befuddle batters while working so much in the strike zone in the majors remains to be seen, but the track record and pedigree are strong enough to make Musgrove worth a look in deeper formats.
