The Worksheet: All-Probability Upside Team
One of the things that offseason fantasy analysis naturally invokes is looking backwards and forwards through the lens of bulk production. Focusing on bulk stats leads to saying things such as “Jordan Matthews was the WR16 in 2015” and promotes things such as “this player’s future projections would’ve made him the RB9 last season” without proper context. Nearly every player’s bulk production tells a different story on a weekly level, where fantasy wins are decided and stacked.
The other thing that happens when focusing on bulk output that has already occurred and fixating on future bulk projections is that you can start to develop tunnel vison for a player’s outcome over the course of the summer. Projections should be used in a fashion as a guideline to the most probable outcome, but never in a linearly without fault because projections are inherently fragile due to the nature of the NFL. Through the course of injuries and inept play, the landscape when Week 17 ends will undoubtedly be different than the one we set sail on in August drafts. We know this, yet we still often ignore it.
Here are some players that I’ve been targeting so far this summer to fill out my rosters that I believe are priced in at what I deem their highest probable outcome already, but offer underlying upside that can make them a value. The key here is that those floors are also desirable at their cost.
Editor’s Note: For updated rankings, projections, player profiles, positional tiers, mock drafts, sleepers and busts, exclusive columns and plenty more, check out our Draft Guide!
I believe Ameer Abdullah has a major ceiling that can smash his cost if Theo Riddick were to go down, but I’m not confident that his most probable outcome isn’t just fantasy purgatory since he has no true grasp on the receiving or goal line work in the starting offensive outlook. If his base usage holds true to last season – even if similar to his usage over the final seven weeks- then he’s barely pushing flex play status.
Also, because I’m talking probable floors that are usable here, I’m going to avoid those players that truly gain massive elevation strictly due to injury and focus on players that you can use right out of the box in some capacity still. Guys such as Jerick McKinnon, Wendell Smallwood, either Dallas backup running back, and others I’m sure you’re screaming as you read stand to potentially greatly effect leagues if what’s ahead of them on the depth chart breaks their way, but don’t necessarily have a lot of standalone juice prior to those events occurring.
Just to add more caveats, I’m also going to leave off rookies with no known floor and am going to focus on players going in the 5th round and beyond here as opposed to the start of the draft where all players are treated more for their potential ceiling output firsthand. Also keep in mind that ADP this time of the year is very fluid, so keep tabs on the movement of these players over the final month of the summer. Now that we’ve met all of the prerequisites, let’s get to it.
Giovani Bernard: Aggregate PPR ADP of RB25 (65th overall)
Probability Priced In: Bernard has never finished outside of the top-20 in overall scoring in any of his first three seasons, regardless of scoring format. In terms of points per game, he’s ranked 17th (13.8), 12th (14.5) and 28th (11.3) to date and was 17th in receptions per game (3.1) amongst running backs last year. Over the past two years, Bernard has been a top-30 scorer in 19 of his 29 games played. Bernard’s main hindrance from crashing through his ceiling in fantasy is being unable to find the end zone and he’s scored just six times over his past 22 games played. Over that same span, Bernard has just seven rushing attempts from the 5-yard line and in compared to 27 for Jeremy Hill.
Upside: Bernard has upside to outkick his price point through multiple avenues. First, an injury to Hill or if Hill is as ineffective as he was last season opens the door for much more work for Bernard. But there’s fundamental upside that may exist even without either occurring. With the losses of Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert’s ankle injury putting his start to the season in jeopardy, Bernard is not only the most familiar receiver for Andy Dalton outside of A.J. Green locked in to start the season, but also may be asked more to compensate in that area if Brandon LaFell and/or Tyler Boyd aren’t productive. Couple that with the fact that the Bengals could throw more this season if they aren’t able to maintain the lofty offensive efficiency they carried last season. In 2015, Cincinnati as 10th in yards per drive (32.4 yards), 5th in points per drive (2.1) and 4th in red zone opportunities per game (3.6). The Bengals trailed for just 25.5 percent of their offensive plays last season, the 4th fewest in the league, but in those situations, they passed 73.4 percent of the time, the second highest rate in the league. I already touched on Hill’s potentially limited range of outcomes, but he does carry a similar price point and his ceiling outcome is basically the inverse play of everything laid out here.
DeVante Parker: Aggregate PPR ADP of WR33 (66th overall)
Probability Priced In: I expected to dislike Parker earlier in the summer when it appeared as if he’d carry a top-24 cost as I have reservations about the Dolphins passing outlook given a projectable unfavorable road schedule wise this upcoming season, something that both Mike Clay has written about and Warren Sharp has as well. But Parker’s price has cooled off as we’ve progressed and settled in more rationally as a lower end WR3 on your roster. Over the final six weeks of 2015, Parker’s PPR weekly finishes were WR20, WR28, WR85, WR40, WR24 and WR12. Over that six game span, Parker had just 61 fewer yards than his teammate, Jarvis Landry on 29 fewer targets as he closed the season with 87, 93 and 106 receiving yards over his final three games.
Upside: Parker did all of that damage while seeing just 19 percent of the Miami targets over that span and catching just 51 percent of those looks, both marks that have room to swell naturally through his own progression in his second season. The Miami offense will have a different look under Adam Gase this season, so Parker could see his usage turn towards bigger X types in Demaryius Thomas and Alshon Jeffery, but a Jarvis Landry injury also puts Parker in position to tally even more opportunity. Landry ranked 10th in the NFL in targets per game last season (10.4) and while he could see less volume in this offense, any absence would elevate Parker even further.
Marvin Jones: Aggregate PPR ADP of WR37 (82nd overall)
Probability Priced In: Jones received more money than any other free agent on the market this offseason by signing with the Lions, but the 26-year old Jones has never even reached 900 receiving yards in a season going all the way back to college. Despite failing to post gaudy yardage, Jones has still turned in two top-36 scoring seasons in each of his past two seasons played while seeing just 5.0 and 6.4 targets per game in those years, but ranked 34th and 45th in points per game.
Upside: While the 10 touchdowns Jones scored in 2013 may inevitably be the apex of scoring prowess for his career, there’s much more room for his target totals to inflate. Calvin Johnson and Lance Moore are both gone from the Detroit roster and accumulated 192 targets between themselves. While Golden Tate stands to take a sprinkling of those on top of his 128 targets from a year ago, and Detroit brought in soon to be 36-year old Anquan Boldin for depth on a one year deal, there’s no reason to believe that Jones won’t see a new career-high in targets naturally as Detroit had the highest passing rate in the league last season at 65.7 percent overall and ranked 5th in passing rate (58.7 percent) while leading on the scoreboard. By all accounts, this will be a pass first offense and if Golden Tate were ever to be hampered or lost, Jones would see an already expected rise in targets grow, even with the addition of Boldin.
Charles Sims: Aggregate PPR ADP of RB32 (85th overall)
Probability Priced In: After a disastrously inefficient rookie season in which Sims battled an ankle injury and averaged just 2.8 yards per carry, he bounced back as being one of the most efficient running backs per touch last season. Although he benefitted from facing more nickel and dime defensive packages, Mike Clay notes that Sims still ranked 6th in adjusted yards per carry when accounted for defensive packages last season as Sims nearly doubled his rookie season yards per attempt. Accounting for multiple top backs getting injured, Sims still ranked 30th of all backs in yards from scrimmage per game (68.1 yards) and 30th in points per game (11.3), right where his current price lies.
Upside: If Doug Martin where to miss anytime, Sims would stand to gain more of a bellcow role than almost all of the other “pass catching back” fantasy options. Sims and Martin combined for 29.9 touches per game with two thirds of those going to Martin. Dirk Koetter has always involved his back heavily into his offensive game plans in both rushing capacities, so Sims would instantly become a weekly RB1 in PPR leagues based on volume coupled with receiving upside alone. While I don’t prefer him apples to apples, Sims is being drafted over 30 picks later than Duke Johnson, a player that may not be overly dissimilar in terms of usage and one that he already bested in yards from scrimmage per game and trumped in top-24 scoring weeks a season ago seven to five even while Browns ran 102 more pass plays than Tampa Bay last season.
