Shutdown Countdown: Can the Arizona Cardinals beat regression?

Shutdown Corner is previewing all 32 teams as we get ready for the NFL season, counting down the teams one per day in reverse order of our initial 2015 power rankings. No. 1 will be revealed on Aug. 8, the day before the preseason begins with the Hall of Fame Game in Canton.

NO. 10: ARIZONA CARDINALS

If you believe in statistics and regression to the mean, the Arizona Cardinals are an interesting case. Because they were nowhere as close to as good, statistically, as their 11-5 record last season.

The Cardinals outscored their opponents by just 11 points last year, placing their pythagorean expectation at about 8.3 wins. Football Outsiders had Arizona ranked 22nd in its DVOA per-play metric, and the Cardinals had 7.5 estimated wins based on FO’s in-depth statistical model. The Cardinals’ NFL per-play ranks in passing yards, rushing yards, passing yards allowed and rushing yards allowed: 20th, 32nd, 22nd, 25th. USA Today statistician Jeff Sagarin had the Cardinals ranked 15th at the end of last season. Advanced Football Analytics had Arizona ranked 21st in its final efficiency rankings. The Cardinals simply weren’t great, statistically speaking, at anything. Their statistical profile looks like an eight-win team, at best.

(Graphic by Amber Mastumoto) The Carson Palmer injury doesn’t explain it all either. The Cardinals were 8-1 when Palmer was lost for the season, but just 15th in DVOA at that point with only 5.4 estimated wins, according to Football Outsiders.

So with all of that said, why are the Cardinals so high, if they’re such a candidate to regress? I believe in stats, but I also believe in what I see as well. And Arizona is a well-coached team with a lot of talent.

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The Cardinals were very good in 2013 (and a lot of the statistics backed it up) when Bruce Arians took over as coach. Arizona didn’t make the playoffs, but was 10-6 in a really tough division. Last season the Cardinals stayed competitive despite losing Palmer and then Drew Stanton and having a really frightening quarterback situation down the stretch. They still managed to go 11-5 and make the playoffs.

Palmer really fits what Arians wants to do, which is stretch the field. Assuming he returns as his old self from ACL surgery — not a given, considering his first ACL injury seemed to affect him for a while — the Cardinals have a dangerous passing game. They upgraded the offensive line as well, which should help a really bad running game. I worry about the defense slipping a bit without mastermind coordinator Todd Bowles, who is with the New York Jets, but there’s good talent on that side of the ball.

All those numbers at the top do give me pause with the Cardinals. What if a 4-1 record in games decided by less than a touchdown flips the other way? What if Palmer isn’t the same or the defense really misses Bowles? There’s a lot of reasons to pick against the Cardinals, but I’m putting my faith in Arians to figure it out.

2014 review in less than 25 words: Who knows how the NFL season might have changed if Palmer stayed healthy. Arizona finished one game behind Seattle in the NFC West.

Is the roster better, worse or about the same? There were some losses, most notably nose tackle Dan Williams, cornerback Antonio Cromartie and longtime end Darnell Dockett, who missed last season due to injury. The additions were nice, though: Guard Mike Iupati was a great get and buy-low opportunities like defensive tackle Corey Peters, linebacker Sean Weatherspoon and pass rusher LaMarr Woodley made sense. They also took offensive tackle D.J. Humphries in the first round, and that helps the depth of a good line. I like the additions and think the Cardinals are a little better.

Best offseason acquisition: Former 49er Iupati got a five-year, $40 million deal, which is a lot for a guard. But at least the money went to a player who might be the best guard in football. Iupati has been a Pro Bowler each of the last three seasons, and an All-Pro once. He’s frighteningly mobile for a 331-pound man. He’s an absolute masher in the run game. It was money well spent.

Achilles’ heel: The Cardinals probably need to run the ball better to take the next step. Arizona averaged 3.3 yards per carry last season, and even in a passing league you need to do better than that. Andre Ellington did not do well when given the chance to be a featured back, so the Cardinals drafted running back David Johnson out of Northern Iowa in the third round. They don’t need to morph into the Seahawks this season, but the Cardinals need to be better on the ground. The line is too good to repeat that 3.3 mark again.

Position in flux: I wonder how the targets get spread around in Arizona’s passing game this year. The Cardinals have three dangerous wideouts. Larry Fitzgerald is the big name, and while he’s still reliable he hasn’t had a 1,000-yard campaign since 2011 and will be 32 this season. Michael Floyd was a big disappointment last season in what was supposed to be a breakout year. John Brown, however, was really good at times, though catching just 48-of-103 targets is a little troubling (though horrible quarterback play down the stretch played a role). I think Floyd is still a good talent and bounces back some, so it could just go week-to-week on who is Palmer’s top target this season. At least the Cardinals have options.

Ready to break out: Deone Bucannon played out of position all last season. He was a linebacker in the Cardinals’ nickel packages, mostly because he had the size for it and Bowles liked using many safeties. But Bucannon is back at safety full time, and last year’s first-round pick should flourish (read AzCardinals.com’s Darren Urban on Bucannon feeling comfortable after spending the offseason at his natural position). He and Tyrann Mathieu have the ability to be a great safety tandem for many years in Arizona.

Stat fact: Fitzgerald had more than 34 yards in six of the Cardinals’ first nine games, including three games with at least 98 yards. Then Palmer got hurt, Fitzgerald dealt with his own knee injuries, and Fitzgerald didn’t break 34 yards in any game the rest of the season. Palmer’s return helps him more than anyone.

Schedule degree of difficulty: The Cardinals don’t play a team that had a winning record in 2014 until Week 5, when they travel to Detroit. But it gets a lot harder after that. Arizona finishes with games at Philadelphia, vs. Green Bay and vs. Seattle, so it’s probably in the Cardinals’ best interest to stockpile wins early on.

This team’s best-case scenario for the 2015 season: I just can’t see an NFC West championship for them, unless something weird happens in Seattle. But double-digit wins and a wild-card spot is a fair goal. And, because this team has weapons and is so aggressive on both sides of the ball, it would be a wild-card team nobody wants to host. As long as the Cardinals aren’t down to their third quarterback again.

And here’s the nightmare scenario: Palmer, at age 35, isn’t a sure bet to just pick up where he left off after ACL surgery. Since this team has no proven running game to lean on, if Palmer struggles then the entire season could be a struggle. Losing Bowles, who was one of the best assistant coaches in the NFL over the last two years, could hurt too. Outside linebackers coach James Bettcher was promoted because he’ll maintain the same aggressive philosophy Bowles had, but he’s just 37, has only three years NFL experience and hasn’t been a defensive coordinator. He has big shoes to fill. And take another look at the first few paragraphs. It might just be that the Cardinals are in for a regression anyway.

The crystal ball says: I think the Cardinals are good enough to make it back to the playoffs, and erase the memory of last season’s brutally ugly postseason showing at Carolina. I believe in Arians, most of all, and like the Cardinals’ defensive philosophy. They’ll be a fun team to watch again.

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32. Tennessee Titans
31. Jacksonville Jaguars
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27. New York Jets
26. Chicago Bears
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