Saves and Steals: Deadline Fallout: Part 1
We’re just two and a half days from the July trade deadline. Already, two closers have lost their jobs – one completely undeservedly. Poor Drew Storen broke out this season only to be ousted by division rival Jonathan Papelbon. Who saw that coming? It wasn’t as difficult to predict the Mets acquiring Tyler Clippard. They were always rumored to be among the top suitors.
There are still a couple ninth inning guys on the market. As you would expect, today will be focused on trades, possible swaps, and fallout. I have my MLBTR feed running on TweetDeck, so all news should be up-to-date at the time of publishing. In fact, Mat Latos to the Dodgers broke as I wrote the last sentence.
Speed guys could also find themselves on the move. So far, the Angels and Rockies have acquired the speediest players of trade season – Shane Victorino and Jose Reyes. Victorino stole 21 bases as recently as 2013, but he’s struggled to stay on the field since then. The leaguewide stolen base success rate is hovering just below 70 percent. Michael Taylor, A.J. Pollock, and Alexei Ramirez tied for the best week on the bases with three steals in three attempts. Nobody was caught stealing more than once.
Tier 1: Elite (4)
Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds
Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
Andrew Miller, New York Yankees
Craig Kimbrel, San Diego Padres
Two of the four elites are the subject of trade talks. Inertia may keep Chapman and Kimbrel in their respective uniforms, but there are definitely teams trying to work out a swap. The asking price for Chapman is said to be steep – certainly more than the third tier prospects swapped for Papelbon and Clippard. It’s hard to gauge what the Padres want in return for Kimbrel – probably a single high quality prospect.
Chapman took his fourth loss of the season last Wednesday. He’s since appeared twice without incident. Kimbrel locked down three saves on consecutive days. Jansen picked up a save in two scoreless appearances. Miller pitched twice. He allowed a home run, but he still saved both games.
For handcuffs, monitor J.J. Hoover in Cincinnati. The Padres are discussing Kimbrel, Shawn Kelley, and Joaquin Benoit. Brandon Maurer may be next in line even if Kelley and Benoit remain with the club. Benoit is an August trade candidate too.
Tier 2: The Upside Crowd (7)
David Robertson, Chicago White Sox
Zach Britton, Baltimore Orioles
Mark Melancon, Pittsburgh Pirates
Jeurys Familia, New York Mets
Trevor Rosenthal, St. Louis Cardinals
Cody Allen, Cleveland Indians
A.J. Ramos, Miami Marlins
Unlike the elite tier, nobody from Tier 2 is on the trade block. Robertson had a bizarre week for the White Sox. He appeared three times and allowed a run in two of the outings. In the game he didn’t cough up a run, he blew the save via inherited runner. He saved the two games in which he did allow a run.
Britton had a solid week despite allowing a solo home run. He appeared three times and converted his only save opportunity. Melancon saved two and picked up a win in three outings. He leads the league with 32 saves.
The Mets bullpen experienced some turmoil this week. Familia blew the save on Sunday. Then on Monday, New York acquired Clippard. While they were finalizing the deal, they learned setup man Jenrry Mejia was suspended for the next 162 games. Mejia was already ineligible for the postseason. The job still belongs to Familia, but Clippard owners should hang on for a week or so. If Familia slumps, Clippard could see some save opportunities.
Rosenthal has recently shown some signs of fatigue. The Cardinals are responding by giving him extra rest. We can expect a few save opportunities for Kevin Siegrist over the rest of the season. The Cardinals acquired Steve Cishek to serve as additional depth. Jordan Walden should be back in action soon too.
Ramos recovered from a blown save against the Phillies last week to lock down three saves. All season, I’ve warned you about the potential for regression in his walk rate. He handed out two free passes last night. If he falters, expect Carter Capps to take the job and never look back.
Tier 3: The Mid-Tier (8)
Ken Giles, Philadelphia Phillies
Jonathan Papelbon, Washington Nationals
Glen Perkins, Minnesota Twins
Greg Holland, Kansas City Royals
Huston Street, Los Angeles Angels
Francisco Rodriguez, Milwaukee Brewers
Koji Uehara, Boston Red Sox
Luke Gregerson, Houston Astros
I considered debuting Giles in Tier 2. He has the stuff for it with 10.88 K/9 and 4.03 BB/9 in 44.2 innings. Ultimately, I decided the occasionally shaky command introduces a little too much risk for now. To be fair, if we remove the first game of the season, he has a 3.48 BB/9. That’s right in line with Kimbrel. Next in line after Giles is Luis Garcia. He’s the only other Philies reliever with a save this season.
In 39.2 innings, Papelbon has just 17 saves. Expect that rate to spike dramatically with the Nationals. It’s a nice little value boost for the veteran. The big loser in the trade is Storen. He’s ever so slightly outpitched Papelbon this season, and he’s projected to be nearly identical over the remainder of the season. Between their rotation and the back end of the bullpen, it’s going to be hard to score against the Nationals.
When a pitcher outperforms his peripherals for most of a season then blows up for a week, I call it a regression week. In three outings, Perkins allowed five runs on three home runs. His 2.41 ERA is still about a run below his projections. That’s a little misleading since he’s a low BABIP pitcher with a high fly ball rate. His place is in the midst of Tier 3 is secure.
Speaking of regression outings, Street allowed three runs and a homer on Sunday. He’s had a solid season with a 2.87 ERA, 8.84 K/9, and 2.63 BB/9. Rodriguez gave up a run while recording two saves. He’s supposedly on the trade block, but there have been very few rumors related to him. He may be an August trade candidate.
Gregerson pitched three times but totaled just two innings. He picked up two saves and one blown save. Like Robertson, Gregerson’s blown save came via inherited runner. The Astros are said to be one of the top candidates to land Chapman or Kimbrel. Obviously, either pitcher would oust Gregerson.
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